The UFC is down under this weekend with a card that starts at 4 a.m. ET. You know what, though? It’s worth getting up early for this one.

UFC Perth is one of the better cards we’ve had this year and the main event is absolute fire. Jack Della Maddelana vs. Carlos Prates is a mouth-watering match-up of technical and brutal strikers. It could also generate the next challenger in the Welterweight division (after Islam Makhachev meets Ian Machado Garry).

The rest of the card is Australia vs. the World. But Australia has so much talent right now that this makes for some recognizable names and some great match-ups. Quillan Salkilld vs. Beneil Dariush is especially fascinating, with Salkilld looking to prove he deserves to be called the hottest prospect in the sport right now.

Other great fights include Cam Rowston vs. Robert Bryczek, Johnathan Micallef vs. Themba Gorimbo and Brando Pericic vs. Shamil Gaziev.

Scroll down to see who we are picking to win all these fights and more!

Leader board

Last week didn’t go great for me, but I was able to stay in top position. That’s because I went with Francis Marshall with my lock pick and avoided Jafel Filho (who almost everyone else picked). Blaine got the best win-loss record for the second straight week, that’s seen him start to climb towards the top of the table.

Jack Della Maddalena (+102) vs. Carlos Prates (-122)

Picking Della Maddalena: Tim Edwards, Stephie Haynes, Miguel Class, Blaine Henry, William Watts

Picking Prates: Nate Wilcox, Kristen King

Picking Over 2.5 rounds: Tim, Stephie, Miguel, Kristen, Blaine, William

Picking Under 2.5 rounds: Nate

Beneil Dariush (-485) vs. Quillan Salkilld (+370)

Read more

Heading into America’s 250th birthday, one sports promotion has worked harder than any other to slather patriotic associations all over itself.

Well, OK, not exactly the date of America’s divorce with British Royalty, which is July 4th, the anniversary of the 1776 signing of the Declaration of Independence.

Irony of ironies, given that King Charles and King Trump met on Tuesday in DC after a series of “No Kings” protests in America, and the White House social media Twitter couldn’t resist trolling its political opponents with a “Two Kings” caption.

Instead, the UFC will be celebrating on June 14, 2026 — President Donald Trump’s 80th birthday — at the White House, which is probably even more patriotic than celebrating on July 4th. Right?

Never mind about the whole exact date thing, let’s focus on America 250, baby!

For the next six weeks, America 250 is going to be advertising everything everyone loves about America — freedom, liberty, the pursuit of happiness, all made in America!

Except nothing is made in America anymore. Not the fireworks, not the patriotic paper plates, not the flat screen TVs, not the cars, not even state-aligned propaganda.

Trump’s Favorite Media Empire Sells Out to Foreigners

That’s how we felt on Monday when The MMA Draw learned that Paramount-WBD — aka WarnerMount, the brand-spanking new media empire assembled by Oracle CEO Larry Ellison and his son David — had filed paperwork seeking approval from the FCC and President Trump to have 49.5% foreign ownership.

The current cap on foreign media ownership in America is 25%, before government approval is required.

This isn’t just any media ownership. The new Paramount-WBD (WarnerMount?) will own CBS, CNN, HBO, Pluto TV, Warner Brothers, DC Comics, and even BET (and many, many more).

The Hollywood Reporter has some key details:

In a petition for declaratory ruling to the FCC signed by Paramount legal chief Makan Delrahim, Paramount asks the Brendan Carr-led commission to sign off on the deal involving Saudi Arabia’s PIF (public investment fund), L’Imad, an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, and a Qatar Investment Authority fund.

Paramount notes that David Ellison and his father Larry Ellison, as well as RedBird Capital, will control all voting shares in the company, and that the sovereign funds are only acquiring non-voting equity shares.
…
Paramount is asking for a ruling that would allow up to 100 percent of equity or voting shares to be owned by foreign holders, though that is a procedural maneuver rather than a sign of any future plans.
…
The three Middle East funds were reported to be providing $24 billion of capital to back the Warners deal. The FCC filing confirms that the PIF will be the largest contributor, owning 15.1% of Paramount’s equity after the deal closes, with L’Imad owning 12.8%, and Qatar’s fund owning 10.6%. Collectively those three funds will control 38.5% of Paramount equity shares (again, non-voting shares). The remaining foreign equity owners include passive investors in RedBird funds, and entities that have acquired Paramount shares and have filed Form 13F with the SEC.

But, wait a second, where did this 49.5% foreign ownership figure come from?

Take a look at this Axios report and accompanying graphic. Notice the “11.0% other” bar chart:

So yeah, wow, the media home of UFC White House is anything but All-American. Not exactly Made in America. And definitely not American Owned-and-Operated.

The face of this campaign? UFC President Dana White.

This is like one of those mini-Fourth of July American flags that says “Made In China” in small print on the back, except Paramount-WBD isn’t a children’s toy.

Paramount-WBD is the most ambitious attempt to control and influence what Americans see, hear, read, think, and believe in the history of American media.

And it’s getting its financial backing from a trio of feuding petrocracies on the Arabian Peninsula.

Even though it’s not part of the Paramount-WBD deal, we should also mention TikTok, which is partly owned by Larry Ellison, thanks to an assist from the Trump administration and the US Congress, which forced the sale.

The jury is still out on how successful Ellison’s content control will be with the “new and improved” TikTok algorithms.

We like to flatter ourselves that readers of The MMA Draw will not be surprised by any of these new developments, even as we ourselves are shocked by the flagrant blatancy of the subversion and the grotesque scope of this influence peddling.

In the UAE, with Larry Ellison and Tony Blair

After all, there’s a reason Larry Ellison and his top political fixer, former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, hang around UAE circles discussing ways to take over the world with AI and surveillance.

Skynet’s not going to build itself after all, and it’ll get built a lot faster with big heaping helpings of cash from the Sovereign Wealth Funds of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.

Sure, Larry Ellison pledged to backstop the WBD acquisition deal with $40 billion of his personal fortune last December. However, with Oracle’s stock price down 40% from its all-time high last Fall, why not reach out for a little help from his friends?

Even rich people don’t like losing money. They just like finding the next money marks to pick up the tab.

It’s not just Oracle’s market cap that is way, way down. Conversely, Oracle’s corporate debt is way, way up, too. According to Fortune.com, Oracle was by far the most heavily indebted of the major tech companies competing in the cloud computing and AI data center spaces:

That’s almost a quarter of the company’s market cap and more than twice its cash on hand. And Oracle’s got big plans to borrow even more money in 2026 and 2027.

So they needed to find $110 billion to buy WBD somewhere, and that somewhere was in a trio of Gulf States known for being brutal dictatorships with nothing resembling freedom of speech or freedom of the press.

Haughty Americans, especially those at Saturday night’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner, like to tout freedom of the press. The Gulf States are demonstrating their freedom to buy the press.

The caveat? Paramount and its attorneys are relying upon $24 billion in Gulf State financing in the form of non-voting stock shares.

That’s because a series of Class B stock shares were issued.

So, in theory, the three Gulf States can’t possibly be expecting any influence on news and entertainment content produced by Paramount-WBD.

Of course not. No way, no how.

These Gulf State powerhouses are purely investing in David Ellison because this deal looks like a sure-fire money maker, right?

I mean, after all the last few times Warner Bros was bought and sold, it was a bonanza for the shareholders of Time, AOL, AT&T, and Discover, right? Someone check and see if Randall Stephenson is still around.

Remember Dana White holding a tombstone picture of all the promotions that UFC killed? The tombstone of media executives and conglomerations who’ve met their maker by banking on Warner Bros. Discovery IP is just as haunting.

OK, sure, it’s true that Discover shareholders (and especially WBD CEO David Zaslav) were the big winners in this bizarrely high-profile bidding war between Netflix and David Ellison. The reason, of course, is that Mr. Zaslav found a pair of Greater Fools named Larry and David Ellison.

The odds of David Ellison turning Paramount-WBD from a melange of under-performing media properties into Free Cash Flow monsters seem daunting.

Paramount, combined with WBD, currently accounts for a whopping 3.4% of the American streaming market as of February 2026, per Nielsen:

So, How Does that $7.7B UFC Deal Fit in All This?

Well, it’s probably not likely to result in a direct bottom-line benefit to the new corporation or its international investors.

After all, Front Office Sports spoke to several analysts about the Paramount/UFC deal when it was signed in August 2025, and the consensus was that it was a dramatic overpay for the fight promotion’s media rights:

“We think Paramount overpaid for these rights,” Morningstar analysts wrote in a research note, but added that the deal can “only be judged as part of a bigger vision.”

According to Bobby Hacker, longtime VP of business and legal affairs for Fox Sports, that bigger vision appears to be staking a claim in the sports world.

“In the bigger picture, paying double what was being paid might seem absurd, but it could be the hook for subscribers,” Hacker tells Front Office Sports.

The UFC-Paramount arrangement wasn’t solely a money deal. It was a very highly political Hollywood marriage, with Ari Emanuel as the go-between.

It was also believed by some to be a cash payback for all the political favors the Ellisons owed TKO boss Ari Emanuel for helping convince Paramount to sell to the Ellisons and the Trump administration to clear the Paramount-Skydance deal.

It was obvious to almost everyone who hasn’t been living in a cave for the past six months that David Ellison paid Ari Emanuel for access to get his business merger(s) approved, although apparently, a lot of the commenters responding to Luke Thomas’ interview with Pablo Torre are such troglodytes.

But given Ari Emanuel’s pre-existing business relationships with Qatar, the UAE, and the Saudis — three petro powers who have feuded viciously with one another in recent years and months — it’s not insane to speculate that he could have helped secure the current round of Gulf State financing for Paramount.

These intra-Arab state conflicts have only intensified since Donald Trump attacked Iran in February.

No one has been hurt more by Trump’s war than the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which are scaling back on their current sporting investments on an accelerated timeline.

Just last week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed the UAE and other Asian countries engaging in talks over a currency swap due to stress from the US/Iran conflict.

Hell, the UAE just announced it is quitting OPEC, the cartel of oil-producing states that has influenced global petrol prices since the 1970s.

That’s why there is a mad rush to secure Gulf fundraising before the money dries up. As we recently outlined here, Mark Shapiro is trying to get as much WWE & UFC cash as possible for the rest of 2026 before the real impact of oil shocks and inflation is baked into the 2027 cake.

So why Paramount? Why would the Gulf States join Larry Ellison’s WBD play?

It’s about AI. It’s still about President Trump. It’s about the same financiers who are interconnected with both Silver Lake (which owns a huge chunk of TKO) and Paramount.

We are living in a very dystopian financial, political, and entertainment world shaped by Ari Emanuel’s vision. The infusion of the State into the fight business. The obsession with pure process over substance. It’s not about winning mass-appeal campaigns aimed at consumers.

Ari Emanuel and Team WME are about winning the one-on-one with the richest person in the room and getting that bag.

This is the defining characteristic of Larry Ellison, Ari Emanuel, Mark Shapiro, and Nick Khan. They win the one-on-one with the Media Executive, the Venture Capitalist, the Private Equity bros, and the Sovereign Wealth Fund leaders.

TKO has married its interests to the State and created a soft form of State TV like Paramount under the premise of AI and sport. Control.

It’s also a big IF that requires constant politicking and triangulation.

This is why it is so important to understand who the Top 10 TKO Power Players are in 2026. If you understand who the leaders, financiers, and public front-facing actors are, then you can understand the global fight and entertainment financing story much better. It also explains global politics in 2026.

Nate Wilcox is Editor-in-Chief of The MMA Draw. He founded BloodyElbow.com in 2007 and sold it in 2024.

Zach Arnold is a lead opinion writer for The MMA Draw on Substack. His archives can be read at FightOpinion.com.

UFC President Dana White found himself getting quoted by members of the DC media on Saturday night at Nerd Prom.

Smiling, with a sense of kinetic exhilaration, after an attempted shooting.

Instead of being at the APEX watching Aljamain Sterling, our favorite UFC brand ambassador was on one hell of an adrenaline rush after attending the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner (WCHD) at the Hilton hotel.

“Tables getting flipped over. Guys running in with guns and they were screaming “get down!” I didn’t get down. It was fucking awesome! I literally took every minute of it in and it was pretty, pretty crazy, unique experience.

“I was sitting, we were sitting right in front of the table, right in front of where the President was.

“Nobody got tackled. But the guys came in looking for shooters, they came towards our table. I thought the shooter was over by us or something.”

That sounds like a description of an action scene on a movie set, not an attempted murder plot at the same hotel where former US President Ronald Reagan nearly lost his life to John Hinckley.

Read the full report on Saturday night’s WHCD shooting at The New York Times.

Why was Dana White hanging out with President Trump instead of watching Saturday’s fights next to his UFC office? Apparently, for the same reasons Mr. White is more excited about Adin Ross, his celebrity boxing venture Brand Risk, and the prospects of former footballer Johnny Manziel engaging in pugilism.

As he said at the UFC 327 Miami post-fight press conference, Dana White is “fifty fucking six years old” and struggling to find a reason to get out of bed every day.

UFC fights just don’t hit Dana’s sweet spot anymore. He’s living his best post-daily UFC life. Now it’s Polymarket, Power Slap, celebrity pugilism, and DC security scares.

Setting Uncle Dana’s adrenaline rush and lack of big-picture awareness aside, the attempted shooting at the WHCD is a big story for many American national security reasons.

We’ve previously written articles and published podcasts at The MMA Draw talking about the risk of running combat sporting events in hot war zones. In 2026, you can also include Washington, D.C. into that geopolitical mix.

Enter UFC White House.

The gang that couldn’t shoot straight

Security protocols for Saturday night’s dinner were reportedly rather minimal, according to New York Post reporter Lydia Moynihan.

Veteran TV host and DC correspondent Greta Van Susteren backed up Ms. Moynihan’s account:

Comments from former FCC Chairman Ajit Pai:

Former US Secret Service New York agent Richard Staropoli claims the current state of affairs for recruitment and hiring of new US Secret Service members is far worse than anyone publicly understands. There are allegations of negligent weapon discharges (including an agent recently on duty protecting former First Lady Jill Biden), a high-profile trainee supposedly spying on another individual, and burnout, creating high roster turnover.

As this Reuters report noted, the US Senate’s own investigation into Secret Service protection of then-candidate Donald J. Trump in 2024 at the Butler assassination attempt was a bureaucratic tongue-lashing.

Former Washington Examiner reporter (and professional thorn-in-the-side of the US Secret Service) Susan Crabtree claims that there was a recent mystery shooting in DC near the White House:

These are critics with little incentive to say anything bad about President Trump, and they’re not holding back on how rotten the current state of internal US security appears to be.

Saturday night’s White House Correspondents Association dinner (WCHD) was held at the DC Hilton. President Trump’s own published surveillance video shockingly reveals how the alleged shooter blasted right past a Secret Service security checkpoint.

The political and legal backdrop for Saturday’s DC shooting is an ongoing fight between the White House and the Washington DC judicial circuit over President Trump building a brand new White House ballroom. Reportedly financed by secretly shielded private donors, of course.

On March 31, Judge Richard Leon ordered a stop to ballroom construction. The DOJ argued in court that construction of the ballroom was necessary on grounds of national security (as this Bloomberg Law article reported).

On Saturday night — a short time after the attempted WHCD shooting — President Trump gave remarks to the very same media members he was eating dinner with earlier that evening.

“We looked at all the conditions that took place tonight and I will say, you know, it’s not a particularly secure building. I didn’t want to say this, but this is why we have to have all of the attributes of what we’re planning at The White House. It’s actually a larger room and it’s a much more secure. It’s got, it’s drone-proof. If it’s bulletproof glass, we need the ballroom. That’s why Secret Service, that’s why the military are demanding it. They’ve wanted the ballroom for 150 years for lots of different reasons. But today’s a little bit different because today we need levels of security that probably nobody’s ever seen before.”

As President Obama’s former Chief of Staff — and Ari Emanuel’s brother — Rahm Emanuel famously stated in 2008,

“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. What I mean by that is that it’s an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.”

President Trump’s first response of tying Saturday’s shooting to his ballroom project immediately stirred up a hornet’s nest on social media. Trending keywords revealed the intensity of current American political discourse.

False flag. Staged. Erika Kirk. Butler. Distraction.

This is the political environment that TKO is going all-in for with the UFC White House event. As much of a cultural high wire act as Mark Shapiro hiring Rush Limbaugh for ESPN’s NFL coverage in 2003.

An increasing risk profile for TKO

It’s an all-out free-for-all to grab as much government cash as quickly as possible for Mark Shapiro and TKO management.

As we recently discussed on The MMA Draw podcast, the war between America and Iran is causing all sorts of financial havoc with the various Gulf States.

The manipulation currently happening on the US stock market, especially in paper trading of commodities, is about to crash into a brick wall of reality. War is accelerating the major recalibration of Saudi & Emirati financing of sporting ventures, big and small, like snooker and rugby. Karim Zidan at Sports Politika has the gruesome details.

It’s a rush to grab as much cash as possible while TKO still can do so.

UFC on June 27th in Baku, Azerbaijan. WWE is on June 27th in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for Night of Champions.

At least it doesn’t sound as crazy as PFL MENA running an event on May 24th in Dubai at Coca-Cola Arena, but at least you can understand why PFL would aggressively pursue a somewhat risky cash grab.

But what do I know?

The aggressiveness with which combat sports players are trying to cash in while they still can is quite a delicate balancing act.

On the same week that Nick Khan was testifying in front of the US Senate on the Muhammad Ali American Boxing Revival Act, and Dana White was in attendance at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, there was Department of Homeland Security chief Markwayne Mullin watching the chaos unfold at the DC Hilton while DHS is facing incredible financial stress. The Secret Service is under the bureaucratic umbrella of DHS.

There is a legitimate chance that the Ali Revival Act could get passed before the US Senate crams through DHS funding via reconciliation.

Great for Zuffa Boxing. Maybe not so great for funding security for UFC White House?

During an April 14th interview with Ari Emanuel client Pat McAfee on ESPN, Dana White once again promised that American taxpayers would not be financing the UFC White House event. It’s a similar spin to his sales pitch in TKO-friendly Sports Business Journal last January.

I’m not buying it.

I suppose these statements could be true if Federal agencies like DHS are broke, but I don’t think that measures up to the reported promises of “Super Bowl level security” for the UFC White House event.

TAIT Global is constructing the massive “claw” structure for lighting and production. With as much White House real estate and UFC production elements involved in this Paramount presentation, it’s going to require millions of dollars in government funding to deploy security assets to protect this highly sensitive political event.

Larry Ellison will be satisfied with an AI surveillance state — as long as he has a role in it. Leaving security in the hands of this US government is no longer a guaranteed proposition.

May you live in interesting times.

Zach Arnold is a lead opinion writer for The MMA Draw on Substack. His archives can be read at FightOpinion.com.

The UFC is back in the APEX this weekend and they’ve got a somewhat interesting card to show us. The Featherweight main event features former Bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling. He’s taking on the streaking Youssef Zalal. If Zalal wins that, then he’s right in the title mix at 145 lbs.

The co-main is Norma Dumont vs. Joselyne Edwards and, you know what? I’m not mad at it. These ladies fight with a lot of aggression and they could put on a show on Saturday. The main card also has Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez and Montel Jackson vs. Raoni Barcelos.

The prelims include Rodolfo Vieira vs. Eric McConico and Talita Alencar vs. Julia Polastri.

As always, we’ve made picks for every fight on the card. We’ve also picked the round totals on the main card fights.

Steph and I swapped positions again last week, with my getting back to the top spot. That’s thanks to my lock pick (Marcio Barbosa coming through). Miguel and Blaine did the best at picking winners, though. They each went 15-7 on the weekend.

Scroll down to see who we are all picking this week.

Leader board

Aljamain Sterling (+105) vs. Youssef Zalal (-125)

Picking Sterling: Blaine Henry

Picking Zalal: Miguel Class, Stephie Haynes, Tim Edwards, Kristen King, William Watts, Nate Wilcox

Picking Over 4.5 rounds: Miguel, Stephie, Blaine

Picking Under 4.5 rounds: Tim, Kristen, William, Nate

Norma Dumont (-225) vs. Joselyne Edwards (+185)

Read more

When Luke Thomas appeared on Pablo Torre Finds Out to discuss the state of affairs with UFC, we came to a painful realization at The MMA Draw.

A significant amount of sports fans have little clue about how TKO business works, let alone who the key decision makers and strategists are.

A significant amount of media members also: a) don’t know, b) are compromised, or c) in absolute fear or awestruck by the Kings of Hollywood. We saw this on display Wednesday in the US Senate when Nick Khan testified on the Muhammad Ali American Boxing Revival Act.

In response, Nate Wilcox & Zach Arnold went to work. In the name of public service, this week’s MMA Draw podcast is a survival guide for fans, fighters, attorneys, and media personalities who want to know all about TKO.

While there are hundreds of potential names in the TKO orbit that could have been profiled, The MMA Draw settled on a Top 10 list of key financiers and decision makers that you need to know all about.

• Ari Emanuel — CEO of Endeavor and the driving force behind TKO, overseeing the combined business of UFC and WWE. The King of Hollywood and top Hollywood financier for Democrats.

• Mark Shapiro — President and COO of TKO, responsible for the company’s day-to-day operations and strategic growth.

• Egon Durban — Co-CEO of Silver Lake, the Private Equity firm that is TKO’s largest shareholder and key financial backer. Owns 7.5% of the Las Vegas Raiders.

• Nick Khan — President of WWE, managing the business side of WWE within TKO, including media rights and partnerships, also Zuffa Boxing. Formerly of CAA.

• Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson — Global superstar and TKO board member who helps shape brand direction and major promotional initiatives.

• Paul “Triple H” Levesque — WWE’s Chief Content Officer, overseeing creative direction for WWE programming under TKO. Vince McMahon’s son-in-law.

• Dana White — President of UFC, brand ambassador for the MMA promotion that forms one half of TKO’s core business.

• Lawrence Epstein — Senior UFC executive handling regulatory affairs and government relations. The Godfather of legal and strategy for UFC and Zuffa Boxing.

• Turki Alalshikh — Chairman of Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority and a powerful partner driving major combat sports events tied to TKO properties.

• Khaldoon Al Mubarak — Top leader in the United Arab Emirates. CEO of Sovereign Wealth Fund Mubadala, which is closely aligned to Silver Lake, TKO, and Ari Emanuel.

This week’s 90-minute podcast is an in-depth feature on the backgrounds of these TKO Top 10 power players, what they currently do, and key questions about their futures in the fight business moving forward.

Once you digest our scouting report on the TKO Top 10 power players, it will change the way you view media coverage on TKO moving forward.

No more excuses for talking heads who generate big bucks by giving you only 10% or 20% of the TKO story. Smoke out those engaged in modified limited hangouts.

The time for media games is over. You deserve to learn who is making money off of you as a fight fan and how they are manipulating the global political & financial system.

You can check out The MMA Draw Podcast on Substack via the following feeds:

• The MMA Draw Substack Podcast on Apple

• The MMA Draw Substack Podcast on Spotify

• The MMA Draw Substack Podcast RSS feed

The dossier on TKO’s Top 10 Power Players

Once you learn all the names, watch how carefully these individuals navigate the lame duck era of Trump’s 2.0 White House after the 2026 US mid-term elections in November.

For example…

Ari Emanuel: CEO of Endeavor, Svengali of TKO, co-founder of MARI

• The former Hollywood agent for US President Donald J. Trump, Vince McMahon (WWE business), and Lorenzo & Frank Fertitta (UFC business). Ari Emanuel had access to important media and customer data when Vince McMahon launched the WWE Network streaming platform.

• Ari Emanuel leveraged Endeavor (via Silver Lake) to acquire UFC in 2016 for $4 billion. The King of Hollywood was riding high after Entourage and the popularity of the Ari Gold TV character. Two years after returning a $400 million investment from the Saudi’s Public Investment Fund, Ari nearly lost his Endeavor empire after COVID hit. Luckily, he had a very rich Gulf ally as a backstop.

• According to a famous 2021 New Yorker profile, Frank & Lorenzo Fertitta set Ari Emanuel up with the UAE’s top New York attorney named Marty Edelman. Mr. Edelman connected Ari to Khaldoon Al Mubarak of Mubadala, and the rest is history.

• Ari Emanuel made a conscious decision to turn UFC into a government contractor and political mercenary. He deployed Dana White as a critical political asset to be close to former client Donald Trump. Nevada was a key battleground state in US elections, and thus UFC’s political value could be exploited in a very transactional manner. Even in 2026, a majority of political and sports talking heads will not state the obvious facts that Ari Emanuel manipulates the political and cultural landscape. Donald Trump opened the door for Ari Emanuel to maximize his political leverage in America without having to run for elected office.

• Ari Emanuel shut down Hollywood financing for Joe Biden in 2024 — bragged about it to Tina Brown — and reportedly permanently damaged Jeffrey Katzenberg’s standing in Hollywood Democratic fundraising. Ari is friendly with multiple 2028 US Presidential Democrat candidates, including Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and former Chicago Mayor & President Obama Chief-of-Staff (and brother) Rahm Emanuel.

To learn about the rest of our Top 10 TKO Power Players, please check out this week’s podcast. Enjoy the show.

Nate Wilcox is Editor-in-Chief of The MMA Draw. He founded BloodyElbow.com in 2007 and sold it in 2024.

Zach Arnold is a lead opinion writer for The MMA Draw on Substack. His archives can be read at FightOpinion.com.

Read more

TKO’s chickens came home to roost at this weekend’s WrestleMania 42.

At the hotel, wrestlers were dealing with a glaring lack of security, exposing Bayley, AJ Lee, and CM Punk to overzealous/creepy fans.

Backstage, the catering situation was a food desert. Inspiring Kevin Nash to go public:

"Be there at three o'clock, leave at midnight, absolutely not a stitch of food for the talent available. No protein. Some bags of chips, a couple of bananas and a tangerine. I asked the head of talent relations, I won't say his name, I asked him, 'Is there food?' He didn't come in and say hi to me until Stephanie was done. In other words, we probably will never have to use him again because he will never do anything again."

WWE wrestlers are used to suffering all kinds of indignities, injuries, and low pay, but they expect to be safe and to be fed.

And on air? There were audible chants of “Fuck TKO” from the crowd that were impossible to ignore on the ESPN broadcast.

Nick Khan can laugh all the way to the bank as fans live-action role-play protesting while paying TKO thousands of dollars for the privilege of doing so, but TKO has moved on to “the beatings will continue until morale improves” phase.

And next year, WrestleMania 43 will be held in Saudi Arabia. Not sure what kind of odds TKO’s official prediction market partner is giving that the event will actually happen, but something tells me there won’t be a huge influx of tourists headed to Riyadh to see for themselves.

But that’s down the road apiece, for now, TKO’s WWE stands exposed as a company that has optimized its business model to extract maximum capital while viewing its core audience, its broadcast partners, and the press with undisguised contempt.

See the clip from The Dan LeBatard Show above that makes this point brutally.

But let’s look at how we got here.

What happened to WrestleMania in NOLA?

Originally, WrestleMania 42 was destined to take place in New Orleans, Louisiana (NOLA). That’s what the WWE announced in February 2025.

But just three months later, WWE announced the event would NOT be held in NOLA. As a consolation prize (and since they no doubt paid a major site fee), the Crescent City got to host UFC 318 last year and will host WWE’s Money in the Bank in September.

A few weeks later, it was officially announced that WrestleMania 42 would return to Las Vegas’ Allegiant Stadium, the site of 2025’s WrestleMania 41.

As Zach Arnold warned MMA Draw Podcast listeners at the time:

We are witnessing corporate politics at its very worst. A bifurcation of major operations with WWE & UFC, likely being merged into Las Vegas with production in Stamford.

Very few fight fans cared about this development, but now customers are taking notice of the politics of Ari Emanuel and Mark Shapiro. It’s starting to impact match quality, pricing of tickets, and overall television production. You’ve never had the privilege of paying more to get less. That sums up America in 2025.

Thanks to Brandon Thurston and Jason Ounpraseuth, we know that the site fees and tax credits Las Vegas paid to get WrestleMania 42 were outrageous, and it’s easy to see why the city would be willing to pony up, given its much-publicized economic woes in the Trump 2.0 era, with many international visitors staying far away from a USA that sics ICE goons on tourists and threatens to invade Canada.

Via POST Wrestling:

WWE received approval for as much as $4,314,821 in tax credits for WrestleMania 42 and related events around Las Vegas, according to records made public by the Nevada agency that approves such applications.

The tax credit amount is based on how much WWE expects to spend to produce the events: more than $35 million.

The credit is slightly more than the $4,240,456 WWE was approved for last year for WrestleMania-related events, as part of the same program in Nevada intended to draw film and entertainment business to the state.

…
GOED Director of Communications Carli Smith confirmed to POST Wrestling that WWE’s application was approved. She noted to us that an audit is involved, and the qualifying amount is the maximum WWE will receive.

“Their actual tax credit amount will be determined by an independent audit based on their actual spend,” Smith said, “but it cannot be more than the $4,314,821.”

That’s the kind of money that can convince Mark Shapiro to screw over New Orleans for sure.

Slow ticket sales heading into the event

Shit got real when WrestleMania 42 tickets hit the market…and just sat there, largely going unsold.

By April, Dave Meltzer was reporting that ticket sales were down 18% year-over-year.

Cultaholic reported on the moves the WWE made to move tickets and fill the stadium heading into the event:

As of Friday, April 10, ticket sales for WrestleMania 42 were down 19 per cent at the same point for 2025’s WrestleMania 41, which also took place at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. WrestleMania 42 ticket sales were largely static between December and mid-March, but tickets have begun to move since WWE reduced prices and announced a number of promotional discounts, including 31.6 per cent off on March 16, and the promo codes REBELS and CAESARS which currently provide prospective attendees with 25 per cent off.

Since mid-February, the cheapest price of two-day tickets for WrestleMania 42 has halved from $738 to $307.85 with the use of a 25 per cent off discount code. The cheapest one-day ticket, meanwhile, has fallen from $266 in mid-February to $153.95 today with a promo code.

Last Word on Sports had more:

WWE WrestleMania 41 hit record ticket prices in 2025. The average cost of two tickets to last year’s show at the Allegiant Stadium was $4,692.98.

But 12 months on, the average price for two tickets has fallen to $1,200. This comes amid a build to WWE WrestleMania 42 that forced the company to offer multiple discount deals. From a 25% winter sale and a cut in Ticketmaster fees to Pat McAfee’s last-minute 25% reduction, WWE tried it all to get people into the stadium.

WWE’s move to employ John Cena as host of WWE WrestleMania 42 was also seen as a knee-jerk reaction to low sales.

Bookings and Airbnb have also slashed their prices 38.47%. The average hotel stay has dropped from a 2025 high of $849.20 to $522.56. Accommodation costs were calculated using a combined dataset of 2,071 hotel and Airbnb listings, capturing accommodation prices during the WrestleMania weekend period

Oof.

The ugliest part of the story is that a modern corporation like TKO must promise and deliver continuous year-over-year growth in profits to keep investors happy and its stock price high.

Mark Shapiro is promising 50% growth in Financial Incentive Packages (the new way to say “Government Contracts” or “Site Fees”) over the next five years, which means the host cities for WWE and UFC events can expect the squeeze to get even harder.

And since both promotions are mature monopolies with limited growth prospects, the only way to increase profits is to buy more businesses (NASCAR?) or increase margins.

They’ve already cut WWE performer pay to a percentage of revenue that will sound very familiar to UFC fighters, per Thurston & Ounpraseuth:

2026 is the year fans can’t avoid seeing what Mark Shapiro has done to cut costs and increase margins.

Everything is the same in both promotions, and everything is getting enshittified at a relentless rate.

It’s like he bought five different chains selling ice cream and replaced all the artisanal flavors with the cheapest, shittiest vanilla he could find, and only cosmetic differences in the toppings.

Hate to break it to you buddy, but the fans noticed.

ESPN problems

The next set of problems that hit WrestleMania 42 had to do with WWE’s new exclusive streaming partner for PLEs, ESPN.

First off, the 10 million Americans who access cable TV via Alphabet’s YouTubeTV service were SOL, per Awful Announcing:

YouTube TV subscribers reportedly will not gain authentication access in time for WrestleMania 42 this weekend, which will air exclusively on the Unlimited tier of ESPN’s new app, according to a report by Austin Karp in Sports Business Journal on Monday. Subscribers to the popular Google-owned pay TV alternative have waited for access to ESPN Unlimited since November 2025, when YouTube TV and Disney reached a new long-term carriage agreement after a weeks-long blackout.

Awful Announcing also chronicled the backlash triggered when ESPN stuffed WrestleMania coverage onto SportsCenter and other mainstream sports shows:

The network has done more segments on WWE this week than it has on MLB and the NHL combined.
…
ESPN’s three flagship studio programs — Get Up, First Take, and The Pat McAfee Show — spent more time discussing WWE this week than MLB and the NHL combined. In total, these shows dedicated 14 segments to WWE this week, while dedicating only 7 to MLB and 5 to the NHL.

WWE was the third-most-discussed “sport” in ESPN’s daily programming this week, behind the NBA (44 segments) and the NFL (25 segments).

And generally speaking, the WWE segments went much longer than those dedicated to MLB or the NHL. Across the three shows, WWE segments accounted for 104 minutes of programming, while MLB and NHL segments each accounted for 56 minutes.

And then there was what happened to ESPN’s actual long-time WWE reporter Andreas Hale:

Don’t hold your breath waiting for Ariel Helwani to organize the kind of backlash against TKO’s media bullying that got his credentials restored when Dana White blackballed him.

BroBible chronicled the work of Hale’s that’s believed to have earned TKO’s ire:

Following WWE’s debut event on ESPN Unlimited, entitled WrestlePalooza, Hale gave the show a “C” grade and noted that the women’s match between Stephanie Vaquer and Iyo Sky “saved this show from being truly average.”

“Everything else was either underwhelming (the short Rhodes-McIntyre match) or a setup for a future match (Lesnar dominating Cena). For a card that promised to have epic moments, it fell a little short of expectations,” he continued.

Additionally, Hale recently covered former WWE employee Janel Grant’s detailed allegations against both the company and former owner Vince McMahon, who many believe could soon return to the fold in some capacity.

Grant accused McMahon of sexual battery and trafficking during her time with the pro wrestling promotion from 2019 to 2022.

Think about the sheer, unadulterated arrogance of that move. ESPN is currently paying TKO $1.6 billion over five years to be the exclusive domestic streaming home of WWE’s premium live events. Yet, TKO feels so entirely insulated by its market dominance that it will openly humiliate its broadcast partner’s lead combat sports reporter. The message Ari Emanuel and Mark Shapiro are sending to Bristol is chillingly clear: ‘We own the real estate. You just rent the broadcast rights. Grade our events on a curve, ignore our federal lawsuits, or stay home.’

The even crazier part of the story is that companies like Paramount and ESPN can pay out hundreds of millions of dollars a year, and they don’t even get to claim their ‘the customer is always right’ privileges.

Why is that you ask?

That’s because Ari Emanuel’s TKO is so politically and culturally hooked up (ie most of the talking heads on every single network and a huge % of top “independent” podcasters are represented by WME) that TKO has more power in the relationship than their media partners.

Why is ESPN even bothering to pretend to do journalism when they won’t stand up for their employee? Either fire the guy and let him have his dignity or stand up for him. Who else has this dynamic in sports? Not MLB, or NHL, or even the NBA. Maybe the NFL, but no one else.

And then there was the event itself

Which brings us to the actual in-ring product. If you stripped away the marketing veneer, Saturday’s card was a bloated, overbooked monument to algorithmic engagement over basic storytelling. It was less a wrestling event and more a parade of forced viral clips designed to be chopped up for TikTok. Why focus on match psychology or long-term narrative payoffs when you can just shoehorn IShowSpeed and Pat McAfee into the main event picture?

The ticket prices, which have seen a staggering 400% hike from just a few years ago, dictate that the live crowd isn’t the working-class base that built this industry. It is a sterile, corporate mix of comped executives, influencers looking to create content with Alligiant Stadium as a backdrop, and high-rollers who sit on their hands while rushed title changes—like Liv Morgan’s blink-and-you-miss-it victory—are cycled through simply to make room for another celebrity interference spot.

The energy inside the building was flat because the audience implicitly understands the transactional nature of the modern WWE. They are no longer participants in a shared, emotional narrative. They are background extras in a TKO commercial.

This tweet spoke for a lot of fans:

And while the second night featured much better matches (averaging an A overall from CBS Sports’ Brent Brookhouse) the overall effect was enough to put Ariel Helwani on his high horse for a spirited rant:

TKO, as an entity, has a major task on its hands right now: it has to win the hardcore fans back.

They may care about the casuals, the top line, the mainstream fans, celebrities, and influencers. They may not care about the hardcores now—but they will start to worry about them when the casuals become hardcores, which is what they want.

The letters TKO are becoming somewhat stained in the eyes of wrestling, MMA, and boxing fans. We should never be talking about TKO as fans—that’s the parent company.

They’re ruining the sanctity of what we love so much. The mat now has ads everywhere. The table has ads everywhere. The apron has ads everywhere. There are no more backstage vignettes, no more interviews, and entrances are being lost—it doesn’t feel the same anymore.

One fact that Ariel doesn’t seem to have registered is that in Mark Shapiro’s TKO, the poors can never be hardcores. Those seats are reserved for cryptobros, political hacks, and influencers looking for a content backdrop.

It wasn’t just the Dean of Combat Sports Journalism with TKO’s name in his mouth either. Fans were audibly chanting “FUCK TKO!” during the ESPN broadcast.

Let’s let Mark Shapiro have the last word

Our own Blake “Axe” Avignon found audio (on Reddit) of Mark Shapiro recently speaking to a college class at the University of Alabama, and it’s very revealing:

Student: I have a question about TKO. So I know TKO bought WWE, I think it was like a year or two ago. And since then, they went to ESPN, they went to Netflix. And I’ll be honest, I’ve seen a lot online of WWE fans almost complaining about TKO. And how there’s a lot of celebrity involvement. And then there’s, like, Jelly Roll and, like, I Show Speed and, like, Pat McAfee and, like, Logan Paul. Yeah, Logan Paul’s been there for a while. I’m actually just genuinely curious because people are saying, like, TKO is, ever since they bought WWE, like, the product has, like, almost become more focused on, you know, moments. and like, I don’t want to say money grabs, but there is more focus on making as much money as possible. I guess I’m curious, how much involvement does TKO really have on creative control decisions like that?

Mark Shapiro: First of all (TKO) has complete control. So we responsible. We good on that?

You didn’t hear about this stuff in the old days with WWE when Vince McMahon owned it because it was a private company for so many years. So they didn't put out their financial results, if you will.

Nobody knew. They knew it was successful and the brand was strong and it had a legion of fans, but they didn't really know how the business worked and what it was making, etc.

Then Vince went public with WWE and then TKO was formed with UFC and WWE coming together. So those two companies came together and launched TKO, which is a public company traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol TKO. And now everything's kind of out there.

But what I would tell you is WWE has grown in every way. It's grown financial results, but more importantly, it's grown in audience, it's grown in social, it's grown in stars, it's grown in clicks, views, short form video. I mean, it's really exploded.

And the reason for that is it was really just on Peacock and USA (Network). And now, since TKO, we did a new deal, which put RAW, our big Monday night show, on Netflix. It tripled our audience. (Variety reported RAW on USA Network drew 1.65 million viewers in 2024, while RAW is currently drawing a little below 3 million global viewers on Netflix.)

And then we put SmackDown which is our Friday night show we put that on USA and we put our developmental lead which is called NXT on CW And CW is linear but CW has 100 million homes. So it really grew NXT.

And then what we call the premium live events (PLEs), which is our big event. Every month we have one big event. Those are the weekly shows that I just mentioned. And then we have one big event every month. Royal Rumble, Summer Slam.

And those used to air on Peacock, and now ESPN bought that deal. So we're now on the ESPN app.

And this weekend, of course, is WrestleMania 42, which is taking place in Las Vegas. So as far as the stars part of it, like, I don't think that's true. But if it was, good. I mean, The Rock is the biggest star on the planet, right? We, I mean, he actually is.

And we represent him at WME. He was a wrestler for WWE for years before he ever became a Jumanji star, right? I mean, that's just, that's who he is.

So having Hollywood tie-ins and celebs and stars and Logan Paul and Pat McAfee and Mark Wahlberg shows up and does his thing. Or Tyrese Halliburton last year got in a fight in the ring with Jalen Brunson and the Knicks.

Like, that's not new. It's just on a larger stage.

And we’re spending a lot more money to market the brand and market the content And when you do that you going to win some folks over but you also going to chase some folks away.

You know they don’t like this or they don’t like that or this is too expensive or I don’t want to have to ‘Oh my God I've got to watch the WWE, I've got to buy Netflix which costs this much, I've got to watch SmackDown on USA, I've got to do that, I've got to have CW, so I have to have cable or linear television, and now I have to pay for ESPN.’

And you can make some enemies really quickly. I was just reading something today, the Fed was showing you, that if you want to watch the Yankees games this year, the New York Yankee season. The full season through the playoffs, you'll have to watch them across 10 platforms at the cost of $1,000 when you add up everything you have to buy to see them. That's just the way of the world today.

And you will chase away some fans, so that's not good, but hopefully you're getting some quality storytelling and also programming around just the Yankees. If you go to Paramount Plus right now to see UFC, you may buy Paramount Plus just to get to UFC but you also might already have it because you're a fan of Landman or something or Taylor Sheridan shows so we really want to surround ourselves with a good neighborhood of content and ESPN is a perfect example because they have a every sport one plus one equals five when you get adjacent to that those kinds of properties.

Mark really makes it sound magical, doesn’t he?

But it’s glaring how much Mark Shapiro was hyping up Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, and yet Johnson is the same TKO Board Member who teased an appearance at WrestleMania 41 last year after the John Cena heel turn with Travis Scott at Elimination Chamber 2025 in Toronto and then no-showed.

This year the Rock was again nowhere to be found for WrestleMania 42. He didn’t tweet about it or promote it WHILE HE WAS IN LAS VEGAS the week of WM 42. He was in Vegas at CinemaCon promoting Jumanji.

But all of that aside, look at Shapiro’s fountain of babble. Compare his sales pitch to these college students versus the way he talks on TKO conference calls. The difference is night and day.

Mark Shapiro’s native tongue is rapacious capitalism, and he doesn’t know how to talk to the customer on the other end of the trade.

This is the Endeavor playbook operating at maximum, ruthless efficiency. We have seen it executed in the UFC for a decade. You consolidate the market, you squeeze the talent, you neuter the press corps by revoking credentials of anyone who asks hard questions, and you price out the traditional fan in favor of sovereign wealth funds and corporate sponsors.

Even worse, TKO is doubling-down at a time when they are hiring high-priced lawyers from firm Quinn Emanuel in 4-figure-per-hour billable hours to defend themselves in antitrust litigation in Las Vegas in front of Judge Boulware and defending themselves against activist investor Carl Icahn’s lawsuit in Delaware and a brutal lawsuit in Los Angeles Federal Court by Altshares ETF that detailed just how the Endeavor take-private transaction supposedly went down.

TKO can silence Andreas Hale; they can force fans to pay double when their tech infrastructure fails, and they can point to their stock price as the ultimate validation of their methods.

But maybe, just maybe, the reaction to WrestleMania 42 might be a turning point.

UFC White House in June will be another big TKO test case, especially with POTUS Trump’s popularity plummeting by the day (especially with the key young male UFC demo) and every sign that the inflation triggered by his war of choice on Iran will be raging by early summer.

But the real crunch time will come at WrestleMania 43 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. TKO sold out the WWE (and Zuffa Boxing) to Turki Alalshikh and his royal masters.

Fans hated it.

But that was before the warnings we have been making for years about doing business in a volatile, war-torn region came home to roost with the Iran War.

Will TKO even be able to put on the event at all?

Will Vince McMahon be inducted into the WWE Hall of Fame in front of Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman?

How deep will the Saudi cuts to their sports investment end up being? They’ve already cut off Tom Brady’s touch football and LIV Golf. Talk about an empire built on sand.

TKO sold out everything. They even sold a Wrestlemania 42 commentator seat to Crypto guy and New York trash magnate Adam Weitsman via OnLocation.

Now that the WWE fan base is waking up to the reality that under the TKO banner, the house always wins, and the fans are just the marks at the table, will the company be forced to adjust?

Don’t count on it.

Nate Wilcox is the Editor-in-Chief of The MMA Draw. He founded Bloody Elbow in 2007 and sold it in 2024.

You knew it was a matter of time when CIA-friendly Bellingcat was recently helping The Sunday Times post recent images of Daniel Kinahan at a UAE-based cage fighting event.

If you paid close attention to what both Bellingcat and the Times were focusing on, today’s arrest of Mr. Kinahan will not surprise you.

It’s supposedly about Iranian oil tankers.

Nobody will directly come out and say “we arrested Daniel Kinahan for working with Iran” but it is an interesting theory if you connect the dots from recent media and government-aligned reporting.

In March of 2026, The Sunday Times published an explosive article about fighter Mounir Lazzez. The report claimed that Mssrs. Kinahan and Lazzez were deeply involved in evading sanctions:

Today an investigation by The Sunday Times and the open-source investigative group Bellingcat reveals how Lazzez is not just a former cage fighter. He is a key figure in shipping crude oil from Iran to China, which bypasses global sanctions and finances the Iranian regime.

Tankers to which he is linked have been sanctioned for their involvement with Iran, one over its links to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group.

But these ships are also linked to the Kinahans through an address in the Marshall Islands which was used by another tanker seized off the Irish coast carrying two tonnes of cocaine for their cartel.

Cocaine. Sanctions. Oil tankers. Boxing. What a world we live in.

Kinahan’s KO of the UK boxing scene

Mounir Lazzez was one of many fighters associated with Kinahan combat sports management company MTK Global.

The same MTK Global that signed Tyson Fury. This Guardian quote from Mr. Fury on his relationship with Mr. Kinahan was rather peculiar.

Meanwhile Fury had stressed to the media, during an open workout on Tuesday afternoon: “It’s none of my business … it’s got nowt to do with me.”

When pressed to discuss MTK, with the company yet to announce its imminent closure, Fury also denied that he retained any links with the organisation. “I have never been sponsored by MTK ever,” he said. When reminded that he used to be part of the MTK stable and had worn their logo, he responded bluntly. “That was from 2017 until 2020. Three years and that was it. Done. End of.”

Tyson Fury has not traveled to The United States to compete in boxing since his 2020 MGM Grand Garden Arena bout with Deontay Wilder.

However, Mr. Fury did manage to publicly thank Mr. Kinahan for helping negotiate a fight with Anthony Joshua. That fight never materialized. Now, Turki Alalshikh wants that fight to happen in 2026.

The same Kinahan-backed MTK Global was supposedly going to have a working relationship with Probellum.

The executives associated with Probellum? Canelo Alvarez’s financial adviser, Richard Schaefer, and current Zuffa Boxing COO (and former Top Rank general counsel) Harrison Whitman.

The same Harrison Whitman that Bob Arum claimed to Kevin Iole was facilitating deals with Daniel Kinahan for Tyson Fury fights.

Arum, whose company will co-promote Fury’s April 23 title defense in London against Dillian Whyte with Frank Warren’s Queensbury Promotions, told Yahoo Sports Thursday he’d paid Kinahan “at least a million” in each of those four fights against Deontay Wilder twice, Tom Schwarz and Otto Wallin. The fights between Fury and Wilder were each for the WBC heavyweight title. The other two bouts were non-title matches.

Top Rank paid the money to a company called Hoopoe Sports Agent that is registered in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, for what Arum said were consulting fees owed Kinahan. The deals for the Fury fights were put together by Harrison Whitman, Top Rank’s former general counsel, who is now the chief strategy and legal officer of a new boxing promotional company called Probellum.

Here’s how Mr. Schaefer recounted his Probellum experience to Thomas Hauser in 2025 for The Ring:

Harrison Whitman (Top Rank’s former general counsel) asked Schaefer if he would meet with a group of businessmen to discuss running a new promotional company called Probellum that had been founded by Ali Shams Pour, who owns Glentoran FC in Northern Ireland.

Schaefer agreed to serve as Probellum’s president. Eric Winter, formerly an executive with UFC, would be the chief operating officer. Anthony Petosa, with a decade of production experience at UFC, was charged with shaping the look and feel of platform content. Anthony Catanzaro, previously the senior boxing advisor for Barclays Center, was slated to become vice president of business operations.

But there was a problem.

Probellum was linked to Daniel Kinahan. And on April 11, 2022, the United States Treasury Department sanctioned Kinahan, as well as six other individuals and three companies that he was believed to have done business with, for what the government said was his role as “leader of the Kinahan Organized Crime Group.”

“Like every promoter in the world, we were working with Daniel Kinahan,” Schaefer says. “Then the shit hit the fan and the whole thing fell apart.”

Funny enough, boxing manager Billy Keane filed a lawsuit against Top Rank alleging non-payment over deals that supposedly involved… Daniel Kinahan.

Intriguingly, Harrison Whitman wasn’t listed as a defendant, but he does appear to be a rather special non-party to the case—a lawsuit brought to Federal court by Patty Glaser’s high-powered Hollywood law firm.

When the 2022 US sanctions hit Daniel Kinahan, no one wanted to talk about their prior experiences working with him in boxing — especially with MTK Global.

This included historian and television executive Bob Yalen, who was inducted into the Boxing Hall of Fame. When Alan Dawson at Business Insider asked Mr. Yalen about Mr. Kinahan, he got the cold shoulder.

The connection between MTK Global and Dubai was no secret, as noted by The Guardian.

Yet in May 2020 Sandra Vaughan, who was Yalen’s predecessor, said in an interview that Kinahan advised fighters to sign management deals with MTK and operated as an independent adviser to some of their boxers. MTK also released a statement in 2020 that delighted in a new partnership between Kinahan and the Dubai-based KHK Sports, which had appointed him as its special adviser: “This is a monumental move for KHK Sports and MTK Global. Both organisations have been making substantial waves in the international combats sports landscape and, combined, the sky is the limit in what they can achieve.”

Once the US levied sanctions against Daniel Kinahan, the global manhunt was on to target Kinahan-associated and affiliated gangs. The recent arrest of Scottish crime boss Steven Lyons in Bali, who was allegedly closely connected to Mr. Kinahan, drew major attention throughout the European continent.

Daniel Kinahan was one of the bigger players in financing and facilitating major boxing transactions in the UK scene. When he was sidelined, it was Riyadh Season that stepped in to fill the void.

This week’s one-two combination of the Saudis pulling back on sporting investments, combined with Daniel Kinahan’s arrest on Friday, will undoubtedly have some important UK boxing managers and promoters nervous.

And it appears that both developments are connected to fallout from the war between the United States and Iran.

The Irish Times published an article last month asking the obvious question: Why are Dubai prosecutors protecting Daniel Kinahan?

The Iranian war with America and Israel has hit the UAE hard. Very hard. The Emirates have a lot of work ahead of them, not only in repairing their financial image but also their global image as a safe place for the world’s richest expats. It’s why the UAE has been reportedly extraordinarily sensitive in cracking down on any public photos showing war damage (and allegedly photos and incident reports sent privately to friends and family).

Daniel Kinahan’s arrest is, indeed, an interesting development. The more interesting angle is why now for the Emirates?

Perhaps Mr. Kinahan’s supposed ties to the Iranian oil trade with China did him in?

Zach Arnold is a lead opinion writer for The MMA Draw on Substack. His archives can be read at FightOpinion.com.

I’m gonna level with you folks. I am sick as a dog tonight. So no pithy critique of the latest UFC card (UFC Winnipeg). Instead, I’m just going to hit you with our picks.

I do have the strength to sum up last week, though. We all got suckered into picking Jiri Prochazka and Azamat Murzakanov. Those losses meant most of us didn’t do great. Blaine Henry was the exception, though, going 11-6.

Stephie Haynes is our new leader. She leapfrogs me and puts me down into second (just ahead of Blaine). Stephie and I clung onto out top spots thanks to hitting our lock picks.

Scroll down to see where everyone is at tonight.

Leader board

Gilbert Burns (+230) vs. Mike Malott (-285)

Picking Burns: Nate Wilcox

Picking Malott: William Watts, Blaine Henry, Miguel Class, Stephie Haynes, Tim Edwards, Kristen King

Picking Over 2.5 rounds: Miguel, Stephie, Nate, Kristen
Picking Under 2.5 rounds: William, Blaine, Tim

Kyler Phillips (+114) vs. Charles Jourdain (-135)

Read more

I’ve never encountered a news cycle like this in my 30 years of combat sports coverage.

Which is why this week’s edition of The MMA Draw podcast is a must-listen 60 minute summary of world affairs.

On the week of Wrestlemania 42 with over 80,000 fans paying extraordinary ticket prices in Las Vegas, we are still talking about the fallout from the UFC 327 event in Miami.

It was crazy enough that US President Donald Trump & Secretary of State Marco Rubio were cage side while Vice President JD Vance was in Islamabad for failed negotiations with Iranian leadership to stop a war. Things got even crazier after the event.

Carlos Ulberg, brand new UFC Light Heavyweight champion, blew out his ACL and now claims he lost his title belt while partying.

The fallout from the respectable, but muted reaction for President Trump by the Miami crowd continues to draw intrigue. For better and for worse, it was history in the making.

Fans are tired. Too much is happening. That is the overarching theme of this week’s podcast show.

TKO is too busy overwhelming your nervous system with a bombardment of advertising, promises, campaigns, and politics. UFC & WWE fans know something isn’t quite right but they can’t put their finger on why.

Look at how UFC is marketing the Josh Hokit vs. Curtis Blaydes fight from UFC 327:

This is embarrassing. The question is whether or not TKO’s public relations is working.

The world really did change right after UFC 327 and now it’s a race to see if TKO can keep up with a news cycle that’s totally out of control.

Dana White is doubling down on his relationship with President Trump and the upcoming UFC White House card. More people are talking about the use of AI for the White House ad than the actual fights booked.

Ari Emanuel is full-steam ahead with his campaign to control manipulate influence ESPN. A recent three-panel shot on ESPN told the story:

Pat McAfee, Governor Josh Shapiro, and Dana White made an announcement about an upcoming UFC event in Philadelphia.

• Pat McAfee is Ari Emanuel’s newest celebrity sports client, inserted into the main event picture of Wrestlemania 42.

• Dana White is Ari’s controlled asset for Boomer Republicans, spouting off Sean Hannity-isms and proclaiming that “if you love America” then you will love UFC White House.

• Governor Josh Shapiro is Ari Emanuel’s other favorite political candidate (sorry, Rahm) for the US 2028 Democrat Primary. Ari’s other favorite Shapiro (sorry, Mark). Governor Shapiro made sure that Mr. Emanuel and TKO are warmly embraced for doing business in Pennsylvania.

This is the kind of control that Ari Emanuel has right now in American politics and culture. He’s taken Hollywood politics and infused it into every aspect of combat sports.

That’s the focus of this week’s free portion of The MMA Draw podcast.

TKO’s Race Against The Clock

For our paid subscribers, we address the breaking news about Saudi’s change of financing big sporting ventures.

Wednesday’s American news cycle was flooded with report after report claiming that the Saudi PIF would be backing away from ventures like LIV Golf and Tom Brady’s flag football games. Here’s the Wednesday night headline from The New York Times:

The CEO of LIV Golf claims that everything will go as scheduled for players in Mexico City.

Tom Brady’s flag football deal involves Fanatics and Turki Alalshikh’s General Entertainment Authority. Front Office Sports claims the GEA is cutting the cord after the initial NFL flag football event was relocated to Los Angeles after the war started between the US, Israel, and Iran.

What does this re-calibrating of funding from both the Saudi PIF & General Entertainment Authority mean for SELA’s support of the Joint Venture with Zuffa Boxing? What does it mean for Wrestlemania 43 in Riyadh?

It’s a race against the clock for TKO to get the Ali Revival Act passed. Next week, Nick Khan and Oscar De La Hoya will be in attendance in Washington DC for a Senate hearing on the legislation.

TKO needs to get the Ali Revival Act bill passed to establish their Unified Boxing Organization. Can they get a UBO established with UFC-style contracts before Turki Alalshikh has to scale back his investments in boxing? Or will business continue as usual?

Buckle up and become a paid subscriber to The MMA Draw podcast. It’s worth your investment in this impossible to understand world.

Nate Wilcox is Editor-in-Chief of The MMA Draw. He founded BloodyElbow.com in 2007 and sold it in 2024.

Zach Arnold is a lead opinion writer for The MMA Draw on Substack. His archives can be read at FightOpinion.com.

Read more

“It’s an eat-what-you-kill world, right? People have to deliver. Now, they need to know the expectations. They need clear feedback. They need performance reviews. They need resources and tools, right? They need help getting there. But as long as everyone understands upfront what we’re aiming for, what the measure and metrics of success are, then it’s full throttle to get there. And if you get there, everyone wins.” - Mark Shapiro

I have one hell of a performance review for Mark Shapiro.

I hate being right about the fight business because usually what I’m right about means a negative outcome is developing.

Welcome to TKO Takeover Wrestlemania Week in Las Vegas. The week where Mark Shapiro brings value extraction to a whole new level in the desert. Remember when Cody Rhodes and Randy Orton were supposed to be the main attractions at Allegiant Stadium?

TKO management has a whole different concept on who the real action stars are in 2026.

Who are the biggest stars in TKO?

The C-Suite see themselves as the biggest stars in TKO. Ari Emanuel. Mark Shapiro. Nick Khan. Lee Fitting. Triple H. Hunter Campbell. Advertising ace Grant Norris-Jones. Seth Krauss. Andrew Schleimer. Lawrence Epstein.

The Kings of Hollywood and finance view their corporate system as larger than life. Ari Gold with a dose of Jack Welch-ism.

Process over substance. Process is substance in their world.

Controlling the plumbing of how things work. Creating massive conflicts of interest everywhere and compromising the competition. Tying others into knots, creating psychological moats. Invading current institutions, ripping them apart with internal strife, and then taking over. Whether it’s celebrity worship or fear, there are lots of tools at TKO’s disposal. Just look at what is happening with USA Boxing right now with Mike McAtee, Tyson Lee, and Héctor Colón.

Fight fans are coming to the realization that they are no longer the primary customer. TKO is giving fans a take-it-or-leave-it ultimatum. Management doesn’t mind cycling out UFC fans every five years. The longer fans stick around, the smarter they are about fight history and the more educated they are in sniffing out product devolution. Push these fans out pronto.

Even when TKO is feeling desperate because their vaunted value extraction at Wrestlemania isn’t massive enough, Ari Emanuel’s newest client, Pat McAfee, still has time on Smackdown to take a shot at “needy families” (translation: the poors) who can’t pay astronomical prices to go to Las Vegas. Wrapped in that veiled shot at the fans was a Grant Norris-Jones BRAND ACTIVATION for RAM Trucks.

The same advertising aces that decided this was a good time to push a nicotine pouch sponsorship between TKO properties and FRE.

The terminally online male audience that watches Tucker Carlson and John Middlekauff knows all about nicotine pouch brands like Philip Morris-owned Zyn. So that’s the latest sponsorship target for TKO.

Warren Hayes at Voices of Wrestling recently articulated an important point about Mark Shapiro’s inflationary bomb on WWE ticket prices. It’s not a conspiracy to say that TKO wants to replace the demographic of older wrestling fans with newer, freshly minted customers who don’t know what the “good old days” were like. Which makes the Pat McAfee “saving the business” shtick even funnier with its bitter irony because it’s a pathetic last-minute plea from TKO leadership for Attitude Era fans to come back. Talk about an abusive customer relationship.

The root cause of angry fans in 2026 can be traced back to an infamous Christmas 2023 TKO call with Mark Shapiro. The TKO COO told everyone exactly what was going to happen. No more C-level markets. Massive pay-for-play government contracts Financial Incentive Packages. Endeavor’s version of IBM Watson and AI was going to take over production. Cost savings. Value extraction. Synergies.

I only wish more people had read our December 2023 article. It’s not too late!

Ari Emanuel & Mark Shapiro are not fight people. They view the Octagon and the ring as movie sets. They get the extra benefit of talent not being unionized and having SAG-AFTRA cards.

The quality of fights in UFC is no longer consistent. The creative quality of WWE programming is as desirable as an STD. AAA is an absolute circus. So what gives?

It’s not just the fact that TKO has locked in enormous step-ladder year-to-year guarantees for media rights. It’s not just their aggressive financial accounting practices. It’s TKO’s one-on-one brainwashing in the biggest business settings with the most powerful leaders on planet Earth.

Ari Emanuel can’t win a public debate, but he sure as hell can influence a powerful person behind closed doors. We recently saw this in action when US House leadership rolled over like a dog showing its belly in passing the Muhammad Ali American Boxing Revival Act.

Mark Shapiro has convinced the richest media executives in the world that UFC & WWE over-perform and deliver results that no one else of their size and stature can match. Even though previous TKO partners don’t seem all too happy with past results, like Fox Sports with UFC & WWE. Like ESPN with UFC.

But it doesn’t matter because media executives come and go. There’s always a fresh-faced mark to work over. This same principle applies in how TKO management views UFC & WWE fans.

Average ratings? It’s about reach, not ratings. Attention economy! Virality! Water cooler talk!

Mark Shapiro and Ari Emanuel redefine metrics on the fly. TKO convinces decision makers in media and Wall Street that they know something that you don’t know.

Again, the illusion of access. The illusion of perceived access.

Don’t expect fan protests, but do expect quiet strikes

This is why TKO is so unnerved by not having automatic sell-outs for Wrestlemania 42 in Las Vegas. As we recently discussed on our brand new MMA Draw podcast, empty seats are visual devastation for TKO’s bubble of invincibility. Empty seats mean the mirage of insatiable customer appetite isn’t real. Once that bubble bursts, the stench of management malarkey magnifies in malodorous whiffs.

We see this playing out right now for UFC in repeat markets.

The biggest story for UFC & WWE business in 2026 is year-over-year declines in repeat markets. Perth, Australia. Mexico City. Miami. Las Vegas.

The numbers from UFC 327 tell the story.

We’ve gone from $12M to $14M to $11M to $7M at the gate for four Miami events.

Under normal circumstances, these would be fantastic numbers for a fight promoter.

But Mark Shapiro is not a fight promoter. Mark Shapiro is constantly selling Wall Street investors on increasing EBITDA, Free Cash Flow, and growth properties (via Zuffa Boxing thanks to the impending Ali Revival Act with UBOs).

Mark Shapiro’s message to investors and financial institutions is this: You can have it all and not pay a premium for it.

This is why the $15M Conor Benn signing proved to be such a huge public relations mistake for TKO. Even with Turki Alalshikh paying the bill, the $15M price tag became a very large albatross around Mark Shapiro’s neck.

The margins have to match Mark Shapiro’s increasingly greedy gambles. You can massage and step-ladder media rights and advertising revenue into whatever financial story you want. What you can’t undo are visuals of empty seats. But I'm sure TKO will be more than happy to use their new AI video campaigns to try to erase that problem.

UFC & WWE fans in repeat markets are sending a message: they can’t afford to buy the dog food, and they don’t like how it tastes.

Understanding the scope of this TKO management mindset gives a better understanding of the completely incomprehensible Jerry Springer-level behavior from the UFC & WWE front offices these days. What we saw this past week alone was enough to make you gag.

• Dana White & Nina Drama on the Adin Ross Kick stream. Showing bare feet. Talking about paying off a $500,000 gambling debt. Complaining about online critics who just don’t know the business.

• The Josh Hokit whateverthatis public display. It’s as if he’s taken the Eugene character from WWE and decided to have Eugene impersonate Chael Sonnen, John Cena (Thuganomics) and Steve Austin with raps and middle fingers. LOOK AT THE ATTENTION HE GETS. He’s in your head! As appealing as rubbernecking past a car crash scene or watching a motorcyclist get decapitated in a police chase.

• The continued on-camera Frat Boy humiliation kinking with Laura Sanko and Daniel Cormier. TKO is really convinced that Cormier is their version of Charles Barkley. Who is the audience for this? The UFC front office, that’s who.

• The return of US President Donald J. Trump to the Octagon. In Miami, which is perceived to be favorable political turf for the 45th and 47th President. The man needed an ego boost after all his favorite media allies (like Tucker Carlson) turned on him over the US war with Iran. Trump wanted affirmation and votes of confidence from the 18-to-35-year-olds listening to Theo Von, Dave Smith, and Joe Rogan. Affirmation that Trump is still loved, on a media platform (Paramount) that is most closely associated with this current White House. Instead of a celebration, Trump received a muted but respectful reaction from the UFC 327 crowd while his Vice President wasn’t able to sign a deal in Islamabad with Iranian leadership. Although based on the torrent of negative comments on this UFC Instagram post about Trump’s walkout with Dana White at UFC 327, both TKO & the Trump White House do not entirely have their finger on the pulse of current fan sentiment.

  

• The invasion of Pat McAfee, Ari Emanuel’s newest client, on SmackDown. A 20-year storyline between Cody Rhodes & Randy Orton wasn’t selling enough four-figure Wrestlemania tickets, so the Kings of Hollywood decided to hot swap celebrity names into the mix because that’s what Hollywood does. Take a backseat, Randy.

The Pat McAfee booking is the most revealing development regarding how Ari Emanuel and Mark Shapiro perceive WWE customers. No, not the fans — but the media executives. Ted Sarandos. Bela Bajaria. Burke Magnus. Jimmy Pitaro.

James Romero has an excellent video on the stupidity of this strategy.

Earlier in this article, I proclaimed that the Kings of Hollywood view the Octagon and WWE ring as movie sets. Fans are paying extraordinarily high prices for the right to be witnesses to a live-action scripted movie.

When that movie starts bombing, the instinct of management is self-preservation. The instinct of management is to insert or replace the actors “performers” with celebrities or famous athletes. Travis Scott. Jelly Roll. Lil Yachty. Tyrese Halliburton. Bad Bunny. Sexyy Red on NXT.

In a 2025 media interview, Mark Shapiro revealed TKO’s psychology on matchmaking during an interview in which he was bragging about WWE’s record-breaking metrics.

“When you’re marketing all day that you’ve got a new movie coming out (with) Brad Pitt and George Clooney, neither one of which we represent, that means something. You’re going to get sampling. Now, if it ends up being a good movie, that depends on the package, the writer, the timing, the lead-in, the campaign, the storytelling itself, the director, you name it. But a good start is having names that matter and draw people to the screen because so much of what we do is really about sampling, right? That’s part of the strategy with Netflix.”

The keyword is sampling.

Sampling is getting people to watch your product at least one time. Newbies. Use big, recognizable names as attention magnets due to the curiosity factor. The act of attracting viewers so they try watching highlights for the first time, regardless of whether viewers become long-term fans.

Algorithms on Netflix and YouTube reward celebrity sampling because it draws early engagement, creating a feedback loop. It’s why TKO is attached to iShowSpeed.

The addiction to celebrities perversely means there’s less incentive for Ari & Mark to actually develop homegrown stars. If they do develop homegrown WWE & UFC talent, it needs to be on favorably restrictive financial and creative terms.

If you need true star power, borrow it from outside the business.

UFC and WWE fans in 2026 are starting to spot this pattern. Customer satisfaction is cratering and it’s causing an uncomfortable bout of cognitive dissonance for ownership. Management is mocking the “Internet Wrestling Community” as stupid while also resenting the fact that not enough customers are rich or gullible enough in 2026 to take out a second mortgage for a cheap seat in Mark Shapiro’s so-called “Experience Economy.”

Soaking 80,000 fans in Las Vegas over two nights for tens of millions of dollars isn’t good enough. Hence the projection about the poors or “needy families.”

This internal conflict is what you’re seeing percolating behind the scenes between the MMA and pro-wrestling lifers versus the outsiders from Hollywood. Management is trapped in pushing process and palace intrigue as a coping mechanism disguised as a media and business strategy (see: WWE Unreal). The Hollywood playbook. If it worked with Entertainment Tonight and Access Hollywood, it should work for TKO. Right?

This is the real reason TKO is thrilled to be out of the PPV business. They are no longer interested in selling fights. One could argue that their UFC & WWE front offices were incapable of selling PPVs consistently. This psychology of fight promoting, and how PPV was a key anchor to building up mega-fights, has been the mother’s milk for generations of matchmaking.

That is all out the window now. Take-it-or-leave-it. If you’re an ungrateful poor that’s part of the “needy families” that can’t pay to take your kid to Wrestlemania, it’s your fault.

As Nate Wilcox recently wrote, TKO has moved beyond the UFC & WWE. Management wants you to keep paying up in the short-term so that new revenue can be diverted into ventures like art, golf, tennis, racing, the NFL, the NBA, and other media entities.

TKO invaded The Masters golf tournament with The Miz, and the fan reaction went exactly the way you thought it would.

Fans are no longer the primary audience. What are you going to do about it?

Zach Arnold is the lead opinion writer for The MMA Draw Newsletter on Substack. You can e-mail him at fightopinion - at - protonmail dot com.

If you read our UFC 327 fight predictions at The MMA Draw, congratulations. You had a better read than most of us mere mortals did on this fight card. But not everyone can be on a predictions heater because in Mixed Martial Arts, there are two cold hard truths:

Fighters can be incredibly courageous and fighters can be really dumb.

UFC 327 in Miami at the Kaseya Center was easily TKO’s most newsworthy and interesting event on Paramount. It may not have attracted the same kind of audience as UFC 324, but we ended up with a very strange kaleidoscope of stories to debate.

If you aren’t a sucker like I am for being a Paramount subscriber, you can watch all the UFC 327 highlights and finishes here:

Let’s review some of the major highlights from this event. As we review the headlines, I will insert my own commentary and reflect upon our staff predictions. It was a busy night for all the right and wrong reasons.

Now what for the UFC Light Heavyweight division?

This division is in complete and total chaos after UFC 327.

Dominick Reyes had an all-time stinker against Johnny Walker. The rather relaxed Miami crowd was chanting “This is boring!” No AI sound sweetener could mask that audio call.

Then there was the main event. Carlos Ulberg, with what initially appeared to be a serious leg injury, took advantage of Jiri Prochazka showing him mercy and knocked him out. For old school fans, we are talking about flashbacks to Rashad Evans chinning Chuck Liddell into oblivion.

The latest injury report and analysis is pointing towards a blown ACL.

This was the main event to determine a new UFC Light Heavyweight champion and now that winner is facing a long time on the shelf due to injury.

Despite this main event fight being a pick ‘em, our Miguel Class best summarized why no one on the staff picked Ulberg to win.

Ulberg has some capability to catch Jiri on the way in like Pereira did in their first fight, but again I just haven’t seen enough from him to trust him to do that and he’s of course not the nuclear hitter the Brazilian double champ is. I still expect Jiri to lose the early rounds and it’s possible that Ulberg could do just enough to keep a lid on the Czech samurai for enough rounds to win a decision if he survives the late onslaught, but I don’t want to see that happen so I’m not going to pick it.

Jiri was doing great in the early stages. Then Ulberg injured his leg. Jiri showed him mercy. Ulberg showed him a KO. It fiercely shocked the crowd.

As inspirational of a victory as this was for Carlos Ulberg, it was a devastatingly humbling blow to Prochazka. A true ‘what the hell?’ moment in combat sports title match history.

After the adrenaline of this moment wears off, UFC is going to find itself back to square one on what is becoming a very transitory and cursed 205 pound division.

And the crowd goes… mild for Trump

US President Donald J. Trump did, in fact, show up for UFC 327 along with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. All while Vice President JD Vance was negotiating with Iran and coming home without any sort of peace deal.

No one really booed Trump at the Kaseya Center but it was a relatively muted, if not respectful response from what was supposed to be favorable home turf. This was a far cry from previously loud and raucous crowd reactions at past UFC events. A rather subdued affair for all parties involved.

Dana White & Hunter Campbell were flanked next to the US President.

We are two months away from UFC White House. President Trump’s official social media accounts released this new UFC poster for the event.

The UFC then released a brand new promo for the White House event.

Remember Dana White’s rant against critics of TKO using AI for advertising? This UFC White House advertising took plenty of artistic leeway with AI. Cyril Gane in a black Secret Service SUV. Justin Gaethje walking by the Presidential Helicopter.

On a surface level, it’s a slick ad. It’s also an advertisement that no other major sports property right now could generate from this current White House. Tens of millions of dollars in earned media for UFC. Whether UFC fans want to continue celebrating Trump’s association with their favorite fighting platform is a different story.

The only development more worthy of heartburn? Having to discuss the existence of Josh Hokit.

No, Hokit vs. Blaydes was not Griffin vs. Bonnar

Right on cue, The MMA Guru declared the Josh Hokit vs. Curtis Blaydes slobberknocker to be one of the greatest fights in UFC history.

This fight was entertaining and fun the same way smoking, binge eating, gambling, and other extracurricular activities involving sin can bring human pleasure.

With that out of the way, it’s time for us to have a painful conversation about Mark Shapiro’s newest UFC superstar.

Read more

The UFC is back with a PLE this week. And this might be the most stacked card of the Paramount+ era. I don’t have much to complain about when it comes to this one.

Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulberg serves as the main event. That’s a fascinating match-up for the vacant UFC Light Heavyweight title. Anything involving Prochazka is fascinating, though.

The co-main should have been Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira for the UFC Flyweight title. However, an injury to Taira has pushed that one back a few weeks. Even so, the main card on Saturday is still very very good.

We’ve got Azamat Murzakanov vs. Paulo Costa, Dominick Reyes vs. Johnny Walker, Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit and Cub Swanson’s retirement fight against Nate Landwehr.

Man, we would have had a field day with Hokit if Bloody Elbow were still a thing (it’s not, don’t bother checking). Honestly, though, I can’t say that I miss writing about all the asshats in this sport.

Back to this event, though. The prelims are pretty good, too. Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque is sitting in the early prelims. And we’ve also got Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godinez, Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics and Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown.

We did pretty good last week with our picks. Blaine Henry did the best, going 14-5. Blaine also hit on his lock pick (Jose Delano). He and Kristen were the only ones to hit on their locks last week, and thus earn 10 bonus points. The rest of us were suckered by Azamat Bekoev!

I’m still in the lead, despite getting my first lock pick of the year wrong. Things have really tightened up, though.

Scroll down to see our standings and who we are picking this week.

Leader board

Jiri Prochazka (-112) vs. Carlos Ulberg (-108)

Miguel Class: Jiri’s perfect mix of guaranteed violence and unparalleled silliness is the only reason light heavyweight should be allowed to continue to exist. Ulberg fits into the category of 205ers that actually tries to be good, which paradoxically has almost always led to worse results in this division. Part of that is because despite a nine fight win streak stretching over four years, it feels like Ulberg has still been allowed to mostly coast his way through one of the shallowest divisions in the UFC. That’s ultimately why I can’t pick him here. While his ability to low kick, jab, and outpoint opponents could theoretically allow him to frustrate Jiri at range, I haven’t seen Ulberg’s outfighting skills tested against an opponent who will at some point just become a wild marauder.

Read more

Dana White trained a generation of fans to believe that fighters were too spoiled, that boxers got paid too much, and that fight sport needed to be centralized to keep them hungry. To book the best matches. To whip talent into compliance.

So, what happens when the promoters are the ones who make too much money?

Dana diagnosed boxing with the same overpay ailment

Dana White doesn’t just apply that reasoning to long-lost UFC stars like Khabib Nurmagomedov and Conor McGregor; he has also loudly proclaimed that excessive fighter pay has ruined boxing, telling the Pivot Podcast in 2022

Everybody wants more money. And one of the big problems with boxing too is that all those f***ing guys are overpaid. And every time they put on a fight, it’s a going-out-of-business sale.

‘We’re just trying to get as much f***ing money as we can from you guys, and then we’re out of here. We’ll see you in three years.’

You can’t build a league like that, you can’t build a sport. You can’t have 750 fighters under contract, making money, feeding their families every year, with that kind of mentality.

While Dana White’s been getting called out for lying to fans and the media for at least sixteen years, sometimes he tells the truth, and the quote above is one of those times.

With the caveat that it should apply to fight promoters as well as fighters.

Except now the shoe is on the other foot. The UFC and WWE won the battle over talent long before Ari Emanuel even considered buying either promotion.

A handful of UFC fighters and their attorneys have been fighting the UFC and its various parent companies in antitrust litigation for over a decade, and have never enjoyed significant support from fans or their fellow fighters.

Even after a $375M settlement payout for the Cung Le class, we are no closer to unionization or a fighter’s association than we were a generation ago.

What happens when it’s the promoters who have scored billions of unearned dollars, not because they promote great events, but because they offer the most political juice and Hollywood connections?

TKO’s Massive 2024-2025 Cash Grab

Just for review, let’s look at how much money TKO locked down for UFC and WWE media rights in the last two years.

UFC Broadcast Rights

• Paramount+ & CBS (2026–2032): $7.7 Billion ($1.1B/year).

WWE Broadcast Rights

• Netflix (2025–2034): $5.0 Billion ($500M/year).

• ESPN (2026–2030): $1.6 Billion ($320M/year).

• NBCUniversal / USA Network (2024–2029): $1.4 Billion ($287M/year).

• The CW (2024–2029): ~$125 Million ($25M/year).

That’s a lot of bazoomba. All of it is guaranteed to the best of our knowledge.

We don’t know what kind of escape hatch clauses there may be in these agreements, but you can be assured that TKO, the political mercenary that it is, will continue to work the room to keep the rich and powerful on its side.

Ari Emanuel exposed to the world that it’s not about winning public sentiment. It’s winning the one-on-one battle with a Larry Ellison or a Bob Iger.

TKO’s triumphs of negotiation, their mastery of The Art of the Deal, has created an unprecedented situation.

With the caveat that it should apply to fight promoters as well as fighters.

For instance, Silver Lake’s Egon Durban recently purchased 7.5% of the Las Vegas Raiders and the option for first rights on buying the franchise from owner Mark Davis.

For those not paying close attention, Silver Lake owns the majority of WME Group (formerly Endeavor), the no-longer-publicly-listed corporation that owns the majority of TKO.

But it’s not just their corporate parent that’s got aspirations that go way beyond combat sports.

Additionally, Ari Emanuel and TKO COO Mark Shapiro have created something called MARI, per The Hollywood Reporter:

The new company is called MARI, and will house a number of significant tennis tournaments, including the Miami Open presented by Itaú and Mutua Madrid Open, as well as the Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, Mubadala Citi DC Open, SP Open, and a number of other exhibition tennis events.

It also includes Frieze, the arts organization that Emanuel agreed to buy earlier this year, as well as a majority stake in Barrett-Jackson, the automotive auction house and lifestyle brand. The deals closed Wednesday in conjunction with MARI’s launch.

Emanuel’s WME and TKO partner Mark Shapiro will be a principal investor and board member of MARI

I wonder if Paramount, Netflix, and ESPN/Disney realize that their lavish payouts for UFC and WWE streaming rights are subsidizing Durban and Emanuel’s moves to take over more mainstream sports?

TKO made their cash grab and have moved on to the next score.

Their money is guaranteed for as far as they can see.

Any student of Dana White’s wisdom will not be surprised to learn that things have gone to shit vis-à-vis the quality of UFC and WWE products.

TKO Is Fat and lazy, and the product quality shows it

Like a young, overpaid and overpartied Mike Tyson getting fat and lazy before running into a lean and hungry Buster Douglas, TKO is putting their energy into everything except doing their job well.

Don’t take it from me, let’s look at what WWE fans are saying.

The Reddit reviews of Elimination Chamber were similarly brutal, with fans complaining that “The entrances last longer than the chamber. You had a 6 man match last less than 20 minutes” and “WWE is no longer about wrestling. It’s only about “moments” and slicing up the segments into 30-second to 1-minute clips for TikTok, Twitter, etc. The faster you come to this conclusion, the more logical WWE’s booking becomes to you.”

And the UFC is getting complaints too, even from ace bootlickers like Front Row Brian:

What’s our takeaway here?

Well, we have to agree with Dana White that too much money spoils the work.

Ari, Mark, and their fellow TKO board member Nick Khan scored over $16 billion in rights deals in their first two years of running the combined UFC/WWE holding company, so they have very reasonably concluded that their peerless media and political access is a winner.

They also seem to have concluded that fans are rooting for them rather than wanting to watch quality fight events.

Ari Emanuel’s fictional likeness, Ari Gold from the 2000s era show Entourage, is back with a vengeance. Mark Shapiro is the star of the show. Triple H. Nick Khan. These guys are now more important than Dana White, even if the MMA media refuses to admit it and insists on focusing their ire on punching bag Dana.

That’s because Dana White is the one who is openly and publicly linked to President Donald Trump.

The same Donald Trump whose polling numbers are setting disapproval records even before the full impact of his disastrous unprovoked war with Iran has been felt at the gas pump and grocery store.

Since POTUS Trump is expected to be in attendance at UFC 327 this weekend, we’ll get to see if UFC fans are among the younger MAGA voters who have reportedly abandoned Trump over the Iran War.

Will Paramount’s UFC production team be ready to bury the sounds of Trump being booed, or will he get a big pop from the UFC crowd like he did in 2024 and 2025.

As we recently warned on our latest MMA Draw podcast, it’s the young 18-24 year old Bro Vote that UFC relies upon the most that has turned the fastest on Trump 2.0.

Unlike Tucker Carlson and the other MAGA influencers who’ve turned against Trump, Dana White is all-in, and I doubt he’s even aware of Trump’s rapidly declining popularity with young males.

So if UFC management isn’t 100% focused on the fights, what is TKO brass really up to?

Dana White Still Hating on Tito Ortiz, Smoking Cigars

Some of us have accused Dana White of never leaving the 1990s behind because the UFC still uses Nu Metal in its promotional materials, but his Wednesday appearance on the Adin Ross Show shows it’s the UFC glory days of the 2000s that Dana has never left behind.

Dana and his old war stories. Dana and his addictions. Dana introduced Adin to an addictive drug (nicotine) on air and talked about a whole lot of topics except how great UFC 327 is going to be.

Given how distracted Dana is, what is his real boss up to right now?

Ari Emanuel Goes Full Vince McMahon? Or Ari Gold?

Well, maybe not full Vince, since that would be a felony crime in the world of public relations (or at least invite litigation), but Ari has suddenly inserted himself into WrestleMania. Again.

Here’s the Hollywood Reporter on the topic:

WrestleMania 42 is a few weeks away, and a surprise entrant has inserted himself into the Las Vegas action — and I’m only tangentially talking about Pat McAfee, the former NFL punter-turned-podcaster and part-time Monday Night Raw commentator.

On Friday night’s SmackDown, longtime WWE Superstar Randy Orton’s secret adviser putting even more voices in his head was revealed to be none other than McAfee, for some reason. For many fans, it felt out of left field, to borrow an analogy from a legitimate sports competition. Orton and McAfee don’t seem to share any particularly meaningful connection and they generally don’t even work on the same WWE show. In wrestling parlance, McAfee wasn’t even a heel until the reveal — a turn — he worked as Raw‘s babyface announcer. But McAfee is (storyline) guiding Orton’s wicked attempt to take down the Undisputed WWE Champion Cody Rhodes, the company’s top face, in the (first) main event of WrestleMania 42.

…

In a scathing promo on USA Network, Rhodes called McAfee a “stoner, grifter, Logan Paul-without-muscles, human hat rack fly-by-night,” and pretty much all in one breath.

“You and everyone who represents you, and I know who I’m talking to, can kiss my ass,” Rhodes added. “Oh no, was that too far? What are gonna do, fire me? It sure worked out for you the last time!”

…
On Monday’s Raw, WWE’s flagship weekly show now on Netflix, CM Punk called McAfee “Pat MAGA-Fee,” a reference to McAfee’s perceived political leanings.

…

“You want to talk about ticket sales?” Punk continued. “Do me a favor. Call up that agent that was foolish enough to shoehorn you into this business and this show and tell him to lower the ticket prices.”

…
Both Punk and Rhodes were seemingly referring to McAfee’s agent Ari Emanuel, infamously the model for Jeremy Piven’s iconic character Ari Gold on HBO’s Entourage. A February Bloomberg report stated that Emanuel “is trying to turn Pat McAfee into the next Sylvester Stallone,” which appropriately includes a four-episode arc on Tulsa King, the Taylor Sheridan show that stars (the real) Stallone. It’s a two-way relationship: McAfee produces Emanuel’s own podcast, Rushmore.

Endeavor CEO Emanuel is not just a super-agent — one that could conceivably turn a kickoff specialist into a top action star — these days. He is also CEO and executive chairman of TKO, the publicly traded company formed by the 2023 merging of WWE with UFC. Forget The Rock’s 2024 persona — Emanuel is the real “Final Boss” here.

Somehow, I don’t think Ari and Pat will be matching Vince’s legendary loser gets his head shaved bout against Donald Trump.

In fact, I don’t even think Ari Emanuel is all that engaged with the WWE drama. After all he’s busy with his new podcast:

And he’s got some irons on the fire with Elon Musk and OpenAI, per Semafor:

OpenAI is expanding its bitter legal dispute with Elon Musk to sweep in Hollywood mogul Ari Emanuel and his talent agency WME.

OpenAI’s lawyers have instructed the firm to preserve communications about the ChatGPT-maker and explain the work it has done for Musk and his lawyers, according to a letter an OpenAI lawyer sent to WME’s chief legal officer on Tuesday. The letter, seen by Semafor, also directs WME to disclose whether it is working with Meta or other OpenAI competitors, claiming Musk is coordinating attacks on the company alongside Meta and its CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

Years after Dana White was busy being asked by media toadies about who would win an MMA battle between Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk, OpenAI is now reportedly setting the stage to try to argue that Zuck and Elon were "colluding” all along against them. And that Ari Emanuel was supposedly in the middle of this scheme.

Weird. Do we believe that Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg may have been coordinating attacks on OpenAI at the exact same time Dana White was promising the two billionaires were angry enough to settle their differences in the Octagon, in the Roman Colosseum?

Dana White is on the board of Meta. Mark Zuckerberg is sponsoring the UFC APEX. Elon Musk is reporting routing press inquiries through WME.

The billions of dollars WWE & UFC are generating for these Hollywood and Tech Bro billionaires is traveling into high-stakes political and AI ventures to see who can run the world.

So yeah, Dana White is probably right about too much money ruining everything. He’s just wrong to assume that rule doesn’t apply to promoters as well.

Nate Wilcox is the Editor-in-Chief of The MMA Draw. He founded Bloody Elbow in 2007 and sold it in 2024.

It is really hard to understate just how much fight fans hate Hollywood politics. Almost as much as they hate US politics, rich people, and compromised influencers.

Now marry all these groups into one toxic brew, and that’s the fire Ari Emanuel & Mark Shapiro are playing with at TKO.

It’s one thing for us at The MMA Draw to highlight our articles from many years ago, such as ‘You are no longer the primary customer’, ‘Ari Emanuel, Wrestling Billionaire’, or ‘UFC’s Bizarre Connection to Trump’s Board of Peace.’

It’s one thing to read these articles. It’s another thing to see all of this action unfolding in front of your face.

Now the fans-at-large are catching on, and they don’t like what they are seeing.

Zach recently summarized how TKO functions in one simple Twitter post:

This week’s edition of The MMA Draw podcast is all about the tide turning against the many faces Ari Emanuel has aligned TKO with.

Dana White. US President Donald J. Trump. The United Arab Emirates.

It doesn’t get any more powerful than that combination. Fans and social commentators are unloading on Ari’s biggest public assets. As seen in the embedded video at the top of this post, there is no more fear factor in criticizing Ari Emanuel & Mark Shapiro. Nick Khan is managing to avoid the heat, which illustrates what a deft political actor he truly is.

The Kings of Hollywood are starting to expose themselves a little bit too much. The $7.7B, seven-year UFC deal with Paramount was the permission slip for everyone who was previously biting their tongue to fully unload on what they really felt about the current state of affairs.

On the free portion of this week’s podcast, we focus strictly on the diminishing returns of Dana White as UFC’s brand ambassador and key man.

If Dana White can’t sell AI (as a Meta board member), sell fights (as UFC President), or sell politics, how much utility does he possess if fans understand that Mark Shapiro is calling the shots? Ronda Rousey’s recent comments have added fuel to that fire.

Executive Summary (free portion)

This podcast explores the intense balancing act of TKO as they navigate a volatile mix of high finance, Middle Eastern politics, and internal leadership crises.

Ari Emanuel and Mark Shapiro have prioritized data points and celebrity connections over the core needs of fight fans, resulting in a noticeable decline in product quality.

Significant emphasis is placed on the organization's alliance with the United Arab Emirates, suggesting that both the US/Iran war and economic downturns are threatening these high-stakes political bets.

The discussion also highlights a growing backlash against Dana White, fueled by independent influencers who are exposing issues such as low fighter pay and personal controversies. A whole new world of fans is reliving (or discovering) Dana White slapping his wife and bragging about supposedly forcing her to have an early C-section so he could attend a Chuck Liddell fight.

The current combat sports landscape is an unholy marriage of connections and geopolitical instability that is beginning to alienate its primary audience.

You can check out The MMA Draw Podcast on Substack via the following feeds:

• The MMA Draw Substack Podcast on Apple

• The MMA Draw Substack Podcast on Spotify

• The MMA Draw Substack Podcast RSS feed

For our paid subscribers, we have some additional notes and a deluxe Executive Summary of this week’s paid podcast portion regarding Ari Emanuel and the United Arab Emirates.

Read more

The UFC has a home game this weekend with UFC Vegas 115 live from the warehouse. And boy, is this card bad.

I’ve been doing picks on this newsletter for years now. When I first started out, I would give out lots of snark about the card quality. After a while, though, I stopped doing that because low name value cards just became the norm.

The fact I let so many bad cards go by, without comment, should really tell you something about this one.

The main event is interesting, though, I’ll give you that. But it shouldn’t be a main event. No one wants to see Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan fight for five rounds. At least these guys are known finishers.

The co-main for this is Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci. No comment. The remainder of the card feels like a mash-up between LFA and Contender Series. There are some interesting characters sprinkled around, though. Ethyn Ewing looked fantastic when he came in on short notice and derailed Malcolm Wellmaker. He’s got the undefeated Rafael Estevam tomorrow. And Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev and Tommy McMillen are worth paying attention to.

Despite how poor this card is, we’ve still made picks (just picks, no commentary — that’s only for PLEs!) for all the fights.

Scroll down to see who we think will win.

It was rough for us last week. UFC Seattle delivered a lot of action, but most of us here took some big Ls in our picks. Not me, though, I went 12-6 and used that to get back to the top of our standings. I also picked Alexa Thainara for my lock pick. She won. I’m 9-0 on those, as is Stephie (who is tied on me with points — win percentage on fight picks is our tiebreaker).

Check out who Stephie, me and everyone else has as our locks this week.

Leader board

Renato Moicano (+140) vs. Chris Duncan (-166)

Picking Moicano: William Watts

Picking Duncan: Tim Edwards, Miguel Class, Stephie Haynes, Kristen King, Nate Wilcox, Blaine Henry

Picking Over 2.5 rounds: William
Picking Under 2.5 rounds: Tim, Miguel, Stephie, Kristen, Nate, Blaine

Virna Jandiroba (-135) vs. Tabatha Ricci (+114)

Read more

It’s never a dull moment in the world of Floyd Mayweather and his top associate/fixer Jona Rechnitz.

In the last two weeks, Manny Pacquiao’s team is threatening a breach of contract lawsuit against Mayweather over allegedly changing the terms of their upcoming September fight.

• Mayweather allegedly wants the bout to be an exhibition rather than an official professional bout.

• Pacquiao’s promoter is accusing Mayweather of taking a large cash advance from this Netflix fight.

• Mayweather’s side is allegedly considering other site options for their September fight rather than the contractually agreed-upon Sphere in Las Vegas.

Then there’s Showtime, which was recently named as a defendant by Floyd Mayweather in his $340M lawsuit claiming that all sorts of individuals — not named Al Haymon — allegedly misdirected cash from his fights. Read that legal complaint here.

Listen to Zach & Nate talk about Floyd’s lawsuit against Showtime here:

Showtime had quite a response to Floyd’s $340M lawsuit. They moved the lawsuit out of state court in Los Angeles and into Federal court.

Showtime then filed a counterclaim, through Big Law firm Loeb & Loeb, arguing for implied indemnification due to someone else breaching their fiduciary duties. Read that counterclaim here.

Long story short? Floyd Mayweather faces various legal issues, some by his own admission as per court filings.

But there are plenty of media articles regarding legal troubles for Mayweather’s longtime top associate, Jona Rechnitz, that also mention Floyd’s name.

Ten years after a guilty plea

The embedded YouTube video at the top of this article is a devastating re-telling of this June 2025 Atavist long-form article on world-famous hustler Jona Rechnitz.

Whether it’s real estate, jewelry, or fight tickets, Mr. Rechnitz made quite a name for himself after a 2016 guilty plea for honest services fraud in New York City.

The Atavist article was published a month after Floyd Mayweather’s attorney, Bobby Samini, filed a lawsuit in the Southern District of New York Federal court against the publication Business Insider which published a series of damning allegations regarding Mayweather’s real estate ventures in New York.

This was the article that triggered Mayweather’s lawsuit in SDNY.

Mayweather’s lawsuit didn’t deter Business Insider from publishing additional articles about his financial problems. Including this June 2025 article on Floyd’s gym business and this February 2026 article on allegations of delinquent rent payments.

Business Insider hired powerhouse Big Law firm Davis Wright Tremaine, LLP to defend them. They promptly filed an anti-SLAPP motion to strike (in the form of a counterclaim, per New York civil procedure) last October.

That counterclaim provided an avenue for Business Insider to produce lots of discovery for public viewing in court filings. Included in this document production are e-mails allegedly from Jona Rechnitz and call transcripts.

In May of 2025, Floyd Mayweather publicly defended Jona Rechnitz by saying that he trusts him.

Rechnitz has been at Mayweather’s right hand through his blockbuster break into New York real estate and the launch of his firm Vada Properties. The undefeated world champion since October has invested $402 million in affordable housing, $100 million in luxury rentals, sunk his teeth into trophy office and bagged a big stake in the former Versace Mansion, now a Miami Beach luxury hotel.

“I trust Jona — not just 10 percent, 20 percent — 100 percent,” the professional athlete and less-seasoned real estate investor said on stage to audience applause and a few whistles.

Rechnitz pleaded guilty in 2016 to conspiracy to commit honest services wire fraud (he bribed NYPD officers), then served as a key cooperating witness to federal prosecutors in several high-profile corruption trials, including one into the NYPD.

Now, about that 2016 guilty plea and how Jona Rechnitz has avoided — so far — serving his prison sentence…

Read more

I’ve spent enough time around this sport, the business behind it, and the conversations that never quite make it on record to know where the friction actually is.

People keep looking for a fix in the wrong places. Lawsuits. Fi…

Read more

What’s a bigger threat to UFC’s future on Paramount: Piracy or Politics?

Our Monday special at The MMA Draw analyzes recent ESPN UFC PPV estimates reported by Dave Meltzer of The Wrestling Observer.

The big question is whether or not UFC’s biggest PPV draws on ESPN will also be key drivers in selling Paramount subscriptions.

TKO has an unholy political and business alliance with The White House, Paramount, Sovereign Wealth Funds, and AI (through Meta and indirectly with Oracle).

What happens in the cage fights is only partially the story about TKO. It’s a very strange, weird, high-stakes yet toxic witch’s brew, and there’s lots of collateral damage.

Remember when we started labeling TKO a government contractor and political mercenary years ago? We weren’t kidding. Everything in today’s world now has some sort of impact and connection to WWE & UFC. Dana White and AI (via his board seat on Meta). The US/Iran war and its impact on Gulf State financing of big business ventures… like Paramount.

This week’s edition of The MMA Draw podcast covers it all. No holds barred. We not only analyze UFC’s current top draws and how their success may (or may not) carry over to Paramount, but we also take a look at the impact of TKO’s politics on two very interesting media personalities: Ariel Helwani and Luke Thomas.

What kind of skill set is required to survive as a talking head in this incredibly fast-moving political, business, and legal environment? Issues we never dreamed of talking about 10 or 15 years ago are now mainstream in MMA discussions.

Dana White wants us to eat the AI sandwich. So let’s have AI give us an executive summary and run-down of topics from this week’s MMA Draw podcast.

Executive Summary

Nate Wilcox and Zach Arnold discuss the evolving business landscape of the UFC and its parent company, TKO.

The hosts analyze the promotion's shift from ESPN to a new broadcasting deal with Paramount, questioning whether the current roster of stars can drive the subscriptions needed to manage Paramount's massive debt.

They critique Dana White's recent promotion of AI technology in broadcasts and examine how global economic shifts and political alliances might impact the organization's financial future.

The conversation also explores a growing rift in MMA media, contrasting the career trajectories and political stances of prominent figures like Ariel Helwani and Luke Thomas.

Finally, the duo reflects on the moral complexities of the fight industry, specifically addressing fighter pay, health risks, and rumors regarding Ari Emanuel's potential interest in acquiring OnlyFans.

Five big questions

This week’s podcast focuses on Paramount’s brand sustainability, Return on Investment, and the risks of extreme political and moral alignment of this climate TKO has generated billions of dollars from.

Here are the five most controversial questions from this week’s show:

1. Is the UFC’s product actually worth the investment for broadcast partners?

2. Are the UFC’s established stars “cooked” as major market attractions? The hosts specifically question the future value of veteran stars like Israel Adesanya. Can this new Paramount UFC generation of American stars, like Joe Pyfer, realistically drive the subscriptions Paramount needs, or is this current audience specifically limited to tech bros listening to BJJ lifestyle videos/podcasts?

3. Will the push for AI production alienate the consumer base? Dana White as an AI salesman for Mark Zuckerberg is one of the funniest developments. Dana telling fans to “eat slop” in response to complaints about AI use on UFC broadcasts is a funny kind of customer service. Is the gamble on AI a viable solution for media cost-cutting, or will it create a lower-quality product that fans hate?

4. Has TKO made an irreversible bet by aligning so closely with polarizing political figures and states? Nate and Zach question if TKO’s current political marriages will cause a massive blow-back as the “young bro audience” turns on US President Donald Trump and the Middle East.

5. Should Ari Emanuel risk his reputation to acquire OnlyFans? The hosts raise the highly controversial possibility of Endeavor “kicking the tires” on OnlyFans. It’s exactly the kind of high-margin, monster Free Cash Flow exploitative business that Mark Shapiro could only dream of acquiring. It doesn’t hurt that various UFC talents are already on that platform.

The MMA Draw podcast is the perfect companion for your paid subscription to our newsletter on Substack. We are not controlled media assets. We ask questions nobody else will in this combat sports landscape. This is the place to be if you want a different perspective that nobody else can deliver.

You can check out The MMA Draw Podcast on Substack via the following feeds:

• The MMA Draw Substack Podcast on Apple

• The MMA Draw Substack Podcast on Spotify

• The MMA Draw Substack Podcast RSS feed

Nate Wilcox is Editor-in-Chief of The MMA Draw. He founded BloodyElbow.com in 2007 and sold it in 2024.

Zach Arnold is a lead opinion writer for The MMA Draw on Substack. His archives can be read at FightOpinion.com.

Read more

It was Slaughterhouse Saturday for fighters on the UFC Fight Night card in Seattle at Key Arena Climate Pledge Arena.

Luke Thomas made the case that UFC’s 2026 matchmaking campaign on Paramount can be defined with one phrase: good middle-class MMA.

• Excluding the Josh Emmett fight with Kevin Vallejos, the APEX shows are abysmal. Which makes the upcoming Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi re-match in June at the APEX hilarious. Dana White deftly sidestepping the “WHY AREN’T YOU RUNNING IT IN JAPAN?!” questions when it appears the obvious answer is that UFC isn’t running Japan for the same reason they’re not running Hawaii.

• The numbered UFC shows are disappointments. The promotion needs a big showing between Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland in May at the Prudential Center.

• The Fight Nights are your best chance to see something decent with UFC on the road, involving non-title matches with fighters ranked in the middle of the pack.

The main event of UFC Seattle’s Fight Night was a quintessential “passing of the torch” fight between Israel Adesanya, one of the UFC’s most popular stars of the Endeavor era, and the strangely, uncomfortably awkward athletic wild man Joe “Bodybagz” Pyfer.

How Adesanya was still ranked #4 is a mystery to us. Heading into Saturday’s fight, Mr. Adesanya had previously lost four out of his last five fights. His last win was against Alex Pereira four years ago.

It was kind of a strange fight to watch. Adesanya’s kickboxing looked good. He had his moments. However, he didn’t really show much defense against Pyfer.

It was no-guard kickboxing between someone with better technique versus someone unafraid to get hit and land some powerful shots. Pyfer’s lead leg was there to get axed down, but Adesanya didn’t focus enough on attacking the limb.

Pyfer’s power wore down Adesanya quickly, allowing him to mount and lock into whatever position he wanted. Herb Dean did Herb Dean things and gave Adesanya plenty of chances to defend himself. It was quickly over.

This was easily the biggest moment in Joe Pyfer’s professional career. The Seattle crowd was entirely behind Adesanya.

After finishing off the former UFC Middleweight champion, Pyfer had his moment to say whatever he wanted to. Out of nowhere, Pyfer dropped this disclosure in his triumphant post-fight interview:

“DC, I could see this moment happening. I almost took my own life a couple weeks ago and I found God. God restored me, baby, that’s the only reason I’m here. USA, baby, let’s go!”

With this cliff-hanger lingering, we later found out more about the context of this disclosure from Mr. Pyfer in his post-fight press conference Q & A:

“Yeah, I was a victim of my own self-destruction. I had lust issues. Just this toxic cycle of coping. Nothing drug-related or anything like that but I had a dream where I was disgusted about who I was. I broke a lot of peoples hearts around me and particularly one person that I never will hurt again and, shit man, I’m just disgusted with myself.”

Is Joe Pyfer really the next UFC Middleweight ace in this Paramount Era?

2026 is a major transitional year for UFC. Out with the old, in with the new. At least that’s what it was supposed to be all about. However, UFC appears to be struggling with a little bit of cognitive dissonance. When matchmaking meets Mark Shapiro’s value extraction.

Paramount quickly needs new UFC subscribers. They also need to have a meeting of the minds with UFC’s production team because there were, yet again, more audio issues during the Seattle Fight Night broadcast.

This is not acceptable, no matter what Dana White has to say about Paramount and Mark Shapiro’s AI usage.

UFC needs old star power to continue selling out big arenas consistently. Luckily for TKO, it appears that UFC fans are more forgiving than WWE fans are right now.

At UFC Seattle, Dana White announced an arena gate of $4.2M with just a shade under 18,000 paying customers. Another $4 million dollar-plus Fight Night gate. UFC’s market power is absolutely incredible.

The big news didn’t stop there. Dana dropped some big news at the post-fighter presser about his two most famous fighters. The news revealed a lot about UFC’s current state of affairs.

Read more

The UFC heads to the Pacific Northwest this weekend with UFC Seattle, live at Climate Pledge Arena. And they’ve brought a former champ along with them.

Israel Adesanya might be the biggest star to grace the Paramount+ era yet. And he’s got a tough match-up in the form of the rising Joe Pyfer, owner of perhaps the worst nickname in the sport. Look it up, I’m not repeating it.

The co-main is Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber 2 (for some reason).

There’s a lot of PNW content on the rest of the card. Spokane’s Michael Chiesa will have his retirement fight opposite Florida man Niko Price. Yakima’s Julian Erosa has drawn Lerryan Douglas. Terrance McKinney, also of Spokane, will run at Kyle Nelson. And Enumclaw’s Chase Hooper has Lance Gibson Jr.. Ricky Simon, of lesser Vancouver, is also on the card. He fights Adrian Yanez.

There’s also Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Yousri Belgaroui and Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev. Those should be bangers.

Scroll down to see who we are picking this weekend. We killed it with UFC London. Steph did the best going a whopping 17-2. No one did worse that 13-6, though.

Steph remains in the lead; a couple of points ahead of me. Steph and I remain perfect on our lock picks, too. See who we’re picking below.

Leader board

Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer

Picking Adesanya: Kristen, Blaine
Picking Pyfer: Stephie, Miguel, William, Tim, Nate

Over 3.5 rounds: Miguel, Kristen, Blaine
Under 3.5 rounds: Stephie, William, Tim, Nate

Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber

Read more