If you believe TKO stock can reach $260 a share, then you also believe that Ari Emanuel’s multi-monopoly has a real shot of reaching a $50 billion market cap.
Think it’s an outrageous prediction? Read this recent raging bull market analysis on why TKO is positioned to be one of the conservative S & P 500 plays.
Are there potentially some costly roadblocks? Absolutely. Such as Carl Icahn’s class action lawsuit over the Endeavor take-private transaction, which had been valued at $27.50/share. Mr. Icahn wants to look at the books. A protracted fight in Delaware Chancery Court could be very costly, both financially and in business secrets revealed during discovery. Then there are the ongoing antitrust lawsuits in the Las Vegas Federal court.
The short-and-mid-term question for TKO is how many billions of dollars can they generate before they have to pay any future litigation settlements or judgments.
TKO recently signed sponsorship agreements with DoorDash, Polymarket, and Ram Trucks. Mark Shapiro is aggressively expanding corporate sponsorship. Combined with a brand new $7.7B Paramount media rights deal, it is very clear who the industry leader is in combat sports.
This week’s edition of The MMA Draw podcast takes a closer look at where TKO is positioned in the marketplace heading into 2026 and the amazing job they have done establishing relationships. Anyone can learn on the job, but it’s who you know that matters more than what you know. Once you’re in The Big Club, the backscratching and influence peddling exponentially increase.
The future of UFC Fight Pass
Last week, Dylan Knostman had reported that five fight promotions — including LFA and Unified MMA in Canada — would be exiting the UFC Fight Pass service.
We received confirmation on those two specific promotions, but the other promotions named in Dylan’s report denied leaving Fight Pass.
Ariel Helwani is reporting that LFA is about to sign a new media rights deal.
On this week’s MMA Draw podcast, Nate Wilcox & Zach Arnold dissect fact from fiction on the future of UFC Fight Pass. It is a major story for 2026, especially if Fight Pass is licensed or sold to a major media entity like ESPN or Paramount.
The future of Zuffa Boxing and USA Boxing
Reporter Sean Zittel sent shockwaves last Friday night when he reported that both Nick Khan and Dana White would be making a last-minute trip to Lubbock, Texas, for the USA Boxing Nationals.
Unlike the Ali Revival Act Congressional hearing, the news of Zuffa heading to Lubbock created a disturbance in the boxing world. A picture is worth a thousand words.
We have some details about the fallout from Saturday’s meeting and how Zuffa Boxing could be positioning itself for a long-term relationship with USA Boxing. There are a lot of different plays for TKO to make, and we expect them to quickly capitalize on building a pipeline with young fighters, coaches, and gyms.
We also address the big elephant in the room: why is it that people in MMA are the loudest critics of TKO’s entry in boxing, and “boxing people” are completely skeptical or oblivious to what the corporate landscape is going to look like in five years?
The future of Polymarket & DraftKings in UFC + Zuffa Boxing
Fans aren’t watching 43 UFC events in a calendar year without likely betting on some fights. Which is why the Isaac Dulgarian scandal generated a ruckus.
UFC’s most recent gambling controversy didn’t stop Ari Emanuel from directly negotiating a deal with Polymarket for a big sponsorship agreement.
DraftKings signed a sponsorship deal with UFC in 2021, and their timing couldn’t have been any better. The question is whether or not DK is willing to pay a significant increase to stay as the official betting partner of TKO.
How much gambling, I mean prediction-based analysis, is too much? We’re about to find out.
On this week’s MMA Draw podcast, Nate & Zach take a closer look at who the key financial backers are for Polymarket and Kalshi and why TKO is able to score huge sponsorship deals when no other fight promoter can even sniff the kind of cash these guys can.
Our answer explains how relationships are key to the concentration of wealth, power, and networking. Each relationship, business deal, and individual monopoly acts as a force multiplier. No one else can do what TKO does in terms of global reach and scalability. The big question is why so many people in the fight industry lack understanding about the enemy they are currently facing. TKO is playing an entirely different game.
You can check out The MMA Draw Podcast on Substack via the following feeds:
Nate Wilcox is Editor-in-Chief of The MMA Draw. He founded BloodyElbow.com in 2007 and sold it in 2024.
Zach Arnold is a lead opinion writer for The MMA Draw on Substack. His archives can be read at FightOpinion.com.
