TKO’s Rights War: Shapiro’s Rush to Paramount and the Price of Lost Leverage

TKO's rush to grab guaranteed cash changed ESPN's fortunes. What's next?

“The decline of Rome was the natural and inevitable effect of immoderate greatness.”

Edward Gibbon, The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (1788)

When the first domino in a rights war falls, the cascade is inevitable. In combat sports and sports entertainment, the true currency is not belts, trophies, or even live gates. It is media rights. Whoever owns the screen owns the narrative, and whoever negotiates the contract shapes the empire.

The past month has delivered one of the most consequential pivots in the modern history of fight broadcasting.

• UFC is heading to Paramount in 2026 under a deal valued at $7.7 billion across seven years.

• Zuffa Boxing is on the verge of landing a multi-year package valued in the nine-figure range. John Ourand of Puck reports that dealmakers expect an imminent announcement, while insider intel suggests a 3-to-4-year deal worth between $150 million and $200 million.

• WWE’s Wrestlepalooza ESPN debut proved underwhelming, per an ESPN reviewer.

• TNA Wrestling is in the middle of a media rights tug of war between CW and Peacock.

The dominoes are toppling. The question is whether TKO orchestrated the sequence or surrendered the board.

On paper, Paramount executed the kind of coup that executives dream of. The newly merged Paramount–Skydance operation, with Larry Ellison’s billions behind it, landed the UFC as a flagship property. Paramount+ subscribers will receive numbered UFC events with no additional paywall, while CBS gains tentpole broadcasts to anchor a sports schedule.

The optics are strong. Paramount instantly legitimizes its sports portfolio, and UFC breaks into more accessible distribution. Yet the process reveals a paradox.

TKO brought UFC to the market at a moment of unusually low leverage. ESPN had integrated UFC into its subscription architecture and built UFC pay-per-views into its pricing model. By not extending ESPN, TKO walked away from an established distribution system to chase a new buyer.

As Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. wrote:

“Detached reflection cannot be demanded in the presence of an uplifted knife.”

Negotiating at the peak of momentum is the corporate version of that knife. By rushing into the open market, TKO’s leadership converted a position of strength into a position of urgency.

Why was Mark Shapiro in such a big hurry?

Zuffa Boxing: The Domino Waiting to Fall

With UFC settled, Zuffa Boxing has become the next major rights piece. Publicly, dealmakers expect an announcement in the coming week, and sources confirm the league is structuring 12 to 16 fight cards annually, supplemented by separate “super fight” events. Reports and insider accounts indicate that Paramount is positioned to finalize the package.

Here is the part that has not been widely reported: ESPN quietly emerged as a contender.

Executives internally signaled an interest in maintaining a boxing presence, which led to exploratory talks about reviving Friday Night Fights in partnership with Zuffa. After testing the market, TKO ultimately leaned back toward Paramount. That decision carries consequences.

ESPN’s participation was not simply theater. Despite losing UFC, the network intends to remain a combat sports player. The domino may not have fallen their way this time, but the trajectory is unmistakable.

Still, in this business, no domino is fully settled until it lands, and there remains a slim possibility TKO pivots late and delivers Zuffa Boxing back to ESPN at the eleventh hour.

The Counterfactual: What TKO Could Have Done

History is filled with moments where the right move was the patient one. AOL–Time Warner is remembered less for its size than for the overreach that made the empire collapse.

TKO could have taken a different path.

Extend ESPN for one year, fixing pay-per-view delivery issues.

In that time, strike a one-off mega event with Netflix for UFC White House at America250.

Package a Zuffa Boxing showcase on the Friday before to create a weekend spectacle.

Return to the table with a portfolio.

• UFC for premium rights.

• Zuffa Boxing as a mid-tier play.

• Power Slap as an experimental fringe property.

By unbundling and staggering, TKO could have played Netflix, Apple, Amazon, and ESPN against each other, landing multiple partners rather than one anchor.

By preserving Ari Emanuel’s leverage with Ellison and Trump, TKO could have leveraged that chip into something beyond media rights — potentially a stake in a $50 billion property like EA Sports. A TKO-EA partnership would have united live rights, gaming IP, and interactive distribution. It would seemingly fortify their Infinity Gauntlet-type choke on the market, positioning them as the industry’s final boss.

Instead, TKO sacrificed leverage for speed. Like Napoleon in Moscow, momentum became overextension.

ESPN’s Mandate: Buy Aggressively, Buy Smart

ESPN cannot stand still. With the launch of its DTC app at a higher price point, it must justify the cost with premium inventory. Consumers will not pay more for less.

The roadmap for ESPN to remain a player in combat sports is clear:

• Acquire or license GLORY Kickboxing, PFL, and ONE Championship archives in that order. Each library features UFC alumni and provides archival depth.

• Add TNA Wrestling and AAA archives at a fraction of the cost. Both provide sports entertainment content that plugs seamlessly into ESPN’s offering.

Napoleon once observed:

“The strong man is the one who is able to intercept at will the communication between the senses and the mind.”

ESPN must intercept fan demand before Paramount conditions it. The time to act is now.

WWE’s Complacency: Wrestlepalooza, Worlds Collide, and Evolve

WWE’s Wrestlepalooza debut should have been a showcase. Instead, it felt rushed and uninspired. This is not an isolated event but a recurring pattern for WWE: when the company dominates, complacency sets in and cracks begin to show.

Sources indicate that Evolve, relaunched as a developmental brand on Tubi, may already be facing a pause. Internal conversations have included shelving the project entirely. Publicly, it will be spun as a relaunch delay, but privately, it reflects instability at the margins of WWE’s empire.

Then there’s the AAA portfolio.

WWE’s Worlds Collide just broke company records: it drew 764,389 concurrent viewers across WWE’s English and Español YouTube channels at peak, and surpassed 4.1 million total views within 24 hours.

On social media, #WorldsCollide exploded, generating more than 32 million social views across all platforms in its first day.

Given that kind of digital traction, WWE has justification to explore a dedicated streaming home for Worlds Collide. The data proves demand is high in the digital space and goes far beyond traditional TV metrics. At the same time, WWE is considering Tubi as a landing platform, using it to reach viewers outside conventional paywalls.

Nick Khan has built WWE into one of the more disciplined media operations in sports entertainment, insulating it from many of the distribution missteps seen elsewhere. Yet even with that infrastructure, the dramatic YouTube success of Worlds Collide, along with the stumbles at Wrestlepalooza and internal uncertainty around Evolve, shows that dominance is never immune to disruption. Even the stronger sibling must adapt when the market itself moves.

TNA Wrestling: The Ceiling Blunder

TNA finds itself in a precarious but opportunistic position. With Nexstar’s acquisition of Tegna tied up in controversy, the runway is clear. Peacock and CW are the frontrunners.

The problem is public leverage. Carlos Silva admitted in interviews that the promotion’s media rights would likely top out around $10 million. By putting a ceiling on their own value, they handed negotiating power to buyers. Instead of bidding up, networks now know exactly where not to go beyond.

The likely outcome if partner exclusivity isn’t achieved is a split package. CW could take weekly Impact shows, while Peacock secures pay-per-views. For TNA, this is a survival moment. One wrong move, and the domino lands sideways.

Winners and Losers

Winners

• Paramount: UFC rights turn them into a sports anchor overnight.

• ESPN (if aggressive): By consolidating secondary libraries (and even Fight Pass), they could maintain position and create a true archive hub where combat sports fans can revisit the full histories of their favorite fighters and athletes.

• PFL, ONE, Glory, TNA, AAA: Positioned to cash out at peak value.

• Netflix, Amazon, and others: Lurking as disruptors with capital to spend.

Losers

• TKO’s negotiation strategy: Optics overshadowed leverage.

• WWE: Wrestlepalooza and Evolve reveal cracks in dominance.

• TNA: The $10 million ceiling weakens their bargaining hand.

• Passive buyers: In a domino war, hesitation is defeat.

Ultima Sententia

Media rights wars are not won with numbers on a press release. They are won with leverage, timing, and patience. TKO entered the market at its weakest leverage point, handed Paramount the UFC crown jewel, and left itself with fewer paths forward.

Paramount now controls the premier combat property. ESPN faces a moment of truth. Either it becomes the aggregator of every other combat brand: Glory, ONE, PFL, TNA, AAA; or it allows Paramount to recondition the market without resistance. WWE, despite its dominance, shows cracks of complacency. TNA risks negotiating itself into irrelevance.

History will not remember whether UFC signed for $7 or $10 billion. It will remember whether TKO preserved its leverage when the stakes were highest. The biggest empires fall not from external invasion but from cracks within. Those cracks are already visible. The dominoes are still mid-air. When they land, they will reveal who read the table correctly… and who authored their own collapse.

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Blake Avignon is the pseudonym of a strategist and media executive who has worked across the UFC, F1, MLB, NBA, and NFL: building brands, brokering partnerships, and reshaping the future of sports and entertainment from the inside.