Nielsen's big knockout for wrestling ratings

What does this mean for UFC's future numbers on Paramount?

In 1991, the music industry rolled out a new technology for tracking CD sales: SoundScan. The impact was as enormous as it was unexpected.

A 2021 piece by Rob Harvilla for The Ringer summed up the impact on the music industry:

Hard rock and heavy metal were way more popular than anybody thought. Same deal with alternative rock, R&B, and most vitally, rap and country. In June 1991, N.W.A’s second album, Efil4zaggin, hit no. 1 after debuting at no. 2 the previous week. That September, Garth Brooks’s third album, the eventually 14-times-platinum Ropin’ the Wind, debuted at no. 1, the week after Metallica’s eventually 16-times-platinum self-titled Black Album debuted there. In early January 1992, Nirvana’s Nevermind, released in September ’91, replaced MJ’s Dangerous in the no. 1 spot, a generational bellwether described at the time by Billboard itself as an “astonishing palace coup.”

Virtually overnight, SoundScan changed the rules on who got to be a mega, mega superstar, and the domino effect—in terms of magazine covers, TV bookings, arena tours, and the other spoils of media attention and music-industry adulation—was tremendous, if sometimes maddeningly slow in coming. Garth, Metallica, N.W.A, Nirvana, and Skid Row were already hugely popular, of course. But SoundScan revealed exactly how popular, which of course made all those imperial artists exponentially more popular.
…
“The old chart couldn’t begin to touch the democracy of this chart,” Timothy White, then Billboard’s editor in chief, told The New York Times in January ’92. “There’s no question,” he added, “that our old system was subject to manipulation, and that people abused it.”
…
…the immediate winners of the SoundScan era are well known at this point, but who lost? Who did not benefit, immediately, from greater chart accuracy?

…the chart dip experienced by Sting’s January ’91 solo album Soul Cages—from no. 22 to no. 56 in that same span—was far more amusing, as the former frontman for ’80s new wave giants the Police was already exuding a certain classic-rock pompousness. “There was a layer of music that the industry just assumes is a hit and were nudging their way up the chart,” Molanphy says, noting that the 1991 Rolling Stones live album Flashpoint took a tumble as well. “You just assume week to week that Sting album’s just got to be selling. Well, he was, but not anymore. I go back to my movie metaphor: Albums open big and then fall off unless they are lucky enough to generate five singles. You think, ‘Well, it’s Sting. He’s just going to keep selling through the summer.’ No. Sting’s going to have about four good weeks, and then that album’s going to plummet.”

I’m bringing this up because Nielsen has rolled out a new ratings system for streaming video (what we used to call TV) that may have a similar impact.

In fact, for pro wrestling, the impact is already Sting-ing.

What is Nielsen’s new Big Data panel system?

Nielsen explained the new system when it was first rolled out last September in a statement:

“The embrace of Big Data + Panel ratings marks a once in a generation enhancement for the industry,” said Karthik Rao, Nielsen CEO. “Combining the trusted, historical measurement of our Nielsen homes with millions of big data inputs gives us the most accurate numbers ever. We developed this measurement advancement in service of and in collaboration with our clients. We are proud to work with them to deliver these numbers for the new season.”

Big Data + Panel National TV Measurement combines Nielsen’s unique, high-quality representative panel measurement with data from cable, satellite set-top boxes and smart TVs across 45 million households and 75 million devices. Nielsen is also incorporating first-party data from participating streaming services to help measure audiences for live streaming events. These are massive datasets that capture TV viewing at the device level.

In January, the Media Rating Council (a non-profit association, led by representatives from media companies and advertisers) accredited the new system, after initially approving it for use on the NFL’s Thursday Night Football the previous autumn.

It’s been a bumpy road to get this far, and the NFL is still complaining about Nielsen.

Per The Wall Street Journal, NFL Chief Data and Analytics Officer Paul Ballew has issues:

Ballew said the Big Data panel doesn’t yet include first-party audience data from most of the streaming services that carry NFL games, which is crucial to the league and its media partners.

The Nielsen spokeswoman said the firm has deals to integrate viewership data from Amazon, Netflix and YouTube and is in active discussions with NFL rightsholders ESPN, Fox, NBCUniversal and CBS.

Ballew also reiterated a longtime concern of the league and networks that Nielsen appears to be underrepresenting the number of people watching games together at home, a ratings category known as “co-viewing.”

The Current quotes an industry insider who notes that Nielsen is working very hard to modernize their systems while avoiding the kind of shock to the industry that SoundScan produced in the 1990s music biz:

Nielsen is in a bind by fully going 100% into Big Data + Panel. Audience measurement has advanced so much that panel-only measurement is outdated. Yet, they don’t want to rock the boat by having wildly different figures after the change to Big Data + Panel.

“[Nielsen’s] been working very hard to minimize the change in reported data [on top of] trying to manage the paradoxical task of introducing big data, totally changing everything and yet having as little change as possible to the numbers they report.”

Most importantly for our purposes, Paramount signed a deal with Nielsen to use the new system in February.

The Paramount-Nielsen deal didn’t come easy, as Variety reports:

Nielsen has come under new pressure in recent months as media clients such as Paramount Global, Warner Bros. Discovery and NBCUniversal test new alliances with upstart measurement services such as VideoAmp, Comscore and iSpot. All three of these companies have gained traction in recent years with TV networks as well as some of the big media-buying agencies that purchase commercial inventory on behalf of big advertisers. Paramount in September said it was no longer using Nielsen data after coming to an impasse with the company on pricing for a contract renewal. CBS has been relying on VideoAmp for audience data.

The NFL is the big winner (aren’t they always), per The Hollywood Reporter:

Through the first few weeks of the new era, NFL and college football games are showing sizable gains over the comparable weeks a year ago, when ratings didn’t regularly include the big data component. Fox Sports says its first three weekends of NFL games have averaged 22.42 million viewers, up 14 percent over its panel-only numbers in 2024. Amazon had gains of 19 and 23 percent for its first two Thursday Night Football telecasts. ABC/ESPN, CBS and NBC have also reported growth, as have ESPN and Fox for college football.

Some of that improvement is probably down to attractive matchups — Fox had a Super Bowl rematch in its showcase late afternoon spot on Sept. 15 — and an expansion of Nielsen’s out of home measurement. But where direct comparisons are possible, it does appear that the big data addition is capturing more viewers than the previous panel-only Nielsen ratings.

NBC’s two opening-weekend NFL games averaged about 22.5 million viewers in the big data plus panel measurement (along with 4 million more streaming on Peacock). Panel-only numbers put the average for the two games at 21.5 million viewers, meaning the big data inclusion shows about a million more people watching (a gain of about 5 percent).

The Monday Night Football opener on ABC, ESPN and ESPN2 also had about a million more viewers in the big data plus panel measurement vs. just the panel, while CBS had more modest gains of about 300,000 viewers for its first national showcase game. In college football, ESPN and its sibling networks (including ABC) are enjoying their best early-season ratings since the mid-2000s.

The new system is bad news for pro wrestling

For wrestling, it’s been a disaster for both WWE and AEW.

Brandon Thurston at Wrestlenomics reports:

So far, this change in methodology has resulted in generally lower audience measurements for AEW and WWE programs.

Last Wednesday’s Dynamite measured at 465,000 viewers. Outside of preemptions, it was a lower number than Dynamite had recorded for any episode under the previous methodology. Recent episodes of WWE’s Smackdown and NXT also registered lower than normal numbers under the new Big Data + Panel system.

He does caveat that “AEW’s live simulcasts on HBO Max are not included in Nielsen’s measured television audiences for Dynamite or Collision. … At least in the case of AEW on HBO Max, that’s not the case, according to WBD. That doesn’t necessarily mean that streaming viewership isn’t included in broadcasts under other media companies, like Paramount or NBCUniversal.”

Confusingly, that contradicts what WBD said when they announced their new Nielsen deal.

The HBO Max thing is a side issue; the real problem may have to do with the age and viewing habits of pro wrestling fans, many of whom are still watching on old-fashioned cable TV.

WWE SmackDown viewership numbers recently went from 1.4M to 1.2M, and AEW recently drew 465,000 viewers for Wednesday Night Dynamite on TBS, per Post Wrestling.

John Pollock and Brandon Thurston spoke with Douglas Pucci of Programming Insider in the above video and got more details.

Douglas Pucci: We’ve seen this shift in our viewing habits, transitioning from watching live TV to streaming. Nielsen was trying to figure out a way to collect all this data in one fell swoop.

They have this label called big data and starting September 1st, they implemented it.

For those that are in the survey, no, they’re not wiring each and every person that has a TV. So don’t worry, no privacy concerns there.

Those in the survey they get their set top boxes, their smart TVs, smart devices and those will be incorporated in what currently is measured with Nielsen with households and whatnot. So that’s the biggest change.

But there’s another aspect to this that’s also was different from last year and that’s out of home viewing, where you could even leave the house if you’re a Nielsen person and they could track what you’re watching from out of home, let’s say at a sports bar, at a restaurant, or another residence.

Last year only two-thirds of the country were factored but since February 100% of the markets are factored.

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There’s still an issue as to what outlets are being agreed to to determine this data. Your guess as good as mine. Is AEW being tracked by HBO Max?

I know that airs on HBO Max.

They would have to confirm if they do count that. I’m not sure.

Now obviously when you come to sports yes, Paramount Plus is included. NBC always includes Peacock in their viewership for NFL but not sure the streaming portion with when it comes to wrestling.

Chart via Wrestlenomics

What will this mean for UFC on Paramount?

In theory, the UFC should be in better shape than AEW or even WWE because it has a younger viewership, which is primarily watching on digital platforms.

We expect the new Nielsen system to initially boost UFC numbers on Paramount+, but the question over time will be, what will be the impact of an aging UFC fanbase?

It could mean a significant decrease in advertising revenue, which will put more pressure on IMG to deliver the goods. Yes, Paramount has guaranteed TKO $7.7 billion over the next seven years for UFC media rights, but Larry Ellison is obsessed with data, as we highlighted on our last MMA Draw podcast. How will Nielsen’s new system hurt *the rest* of combat sports who don’t enjoy the TKO multi-monopoly?

Nate Wilcox is Editor-in-Chief of The MMA Draw. He founded BloodyElbow.com in 2007 and sold it in 2024.

Zach Arnold is a lead opinion writer for The MMA Draw on Substack. His archives can be read at FightOpinion.com.