TKO’s media rights minefield

Why the UFC’s future is more uncertain than it looks

This guest post is by Blake Avignon.

“In business, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield” – Warren Buffett

What seemed like a simple renewal has become a media rights landmine. The UFC’s exclusive negotiation window with ESPN quietly expired, and with it, the comfort of predictability. Now, every major player, from streamers to legacy networks to tech giants, is reevaluating whether the UFC is a core asset or a luxury in a changing sports economy.

Start with Apple. Often rumored, never real. Sources say Apple isn’t engaging because they don’t need to. With Meta already deep in partnership with the UFC, Apple sees no value in a bidding war that’s already tilted. Jimmy DeLorenzo knows how to pick his spots, and this isn’t one of them.

Amazon is open, but only if the price is right. Jay Marine is reworking Amazon’s entire approach to live sports. He wants inventory, something dependable that doesn’t prevent him from going after cornerstone properties like MLB or the Olympics. A budget-friendly UFC deal that doesn’t tie up long-term capital could be appealing, but the appetite for exclusivity isn’t there.

NBCUniversal has its hands tied. Internally, a corporate restructuring is underway, spinning off USA Network and select Peacock-related digital assets into a new unit called Versant. Despite their billion-dollar WWE deal, insiders say there’s no strategic clarity or budget flexibility to pursue the UFC. The house is being rebuilt, and a billion-dollar auction isn’t on the renovation list.

Netflix had momentum until TKO overplayed its hand. The failed attempt to package UFC rights into a Riyadh Season mega card featuring Canelo and Crawford blew up what was once a promising exclusive path. Netflix is still in the room, but it’s no longer driving the conversation. Adding to the complexity, Mark Shapiro wasn’t part of the ESPN deal that put UFC on the map. Now he’s tasked with leading the renegotiation, and it’s unclear how he and Dana White align on vision.

ESPN is reengaged. Jimmy Pitaro had the opportunity to lock in UFC at a favorable rate that met the company’s billion-dollar valuation. Still, the UFC seemed to hesitate on the length and structure. With Netflix faltering and no other suitor showing serious intent, ESPN’s leverage has increased. The familiar relationship may be the safest bet, but this isn’t the same UFC ESPN dynamic as five years ago.

Sources confirm WWE acquired a controlling 51% stake in Lucha Libre AAA through a joint venture with Mexican firm Fillip, as part of NBCUniversal’s long-term strategy to fill the post-Peacock/WWE gap. Similar overtures have also been made to Anthem for TNA.

The CW, despite signing NXT to a five-year $125M+ deal, is likely done shopping. The move doubled their previous rights spend, and multiple insiders say it leaves little room to pursue further premium future potential WWE wrestling content down the line with AAA or TNA.

“The essence of strategy is choosing what not to do” – Michael Porter

The UFC wants over one billion dollars annually. That kind of number forces tough choices. It puts Mark Shapiro in the hot seat, tasked with validating the valuation, securing the right partner, and avoiding a public stumble. At stake is nothing less than UFC’s standing as the engine of TKO, rather than the liability of an overreaching portfolio.

The tide is receding. Whether it’s ESPN stepping up, Amazon finding value, or a dark horse emerging late, one thing is clear. The next move will shape the UFC’s visibility, valuation, and velocity for years to come.

“You never know who’s swimming naked until the tide goes out” – Warren Buffett

Blake Avignon is a pseudonym for a media and brand strategist working across sports, advertising, and entertainment with clients in the UFC, NBA, NFL, and F1.