Two very different directions for RIZIN & PFL heading in 2025

Both promotions are looking for a breakout but with very different paths.

The promotional messages from RIZIN boss Nobuyuki Sakakibara & PFL boss Donn Davis on New Year’s Eve reveal opposite visions for the future of combat sports in 2025.

The two major non-UFC players in Mixed Martial Arts have very different strategies and messages to both the fans and fighters.

One promotion goes all-in for a major fight event with a clear matchmaking direction. The other promotion? Well, it’s getting hard to tell.

RIZIN produced a wild New Year’s Eve marathon event at Saitama Super Arena. It featured a couple of violent yet magical moments that you typically used to see a generation ago on Japanese mega-cards. For a split second, you could feel a pulse of energy from the past. Kazushi Sakuraba’s son made his debut and won.

RIZIN has put in the work to be a friendly ally to UFC. They brought in Sean O’Malley for fan meet & greets, a talk event, and also merchandising opportunities. He also appeared in the RIZIN ring in his trademark pink fashion ensemble. It was a successful trip.

Dana’s old friend from PRIDE has gone all-in on embracing their role as a launching pad for talent bound for the UFC. UFC, in turn, is slowly warming up to RIZIN as an avenue for the UFC brand and UFC fighters to gain promotional exposure in Japan.

RIZIN had been affiliated with Bellator under Scott Coker’s tenure. Once PFL bought out Bellator contracts from Paramount, the relationship changed. No Bellator fighters were booked in Japan for New Year’s Eve.

The ramifications of this new RIZIN/UFC alliance remain to be seen, but it’s not exactly a positive development for PFL.

PFL, meanwhile, is quietly heading into a make-or-break 2025 campaign. They have vocally disgruntled fighters on social media. The promotion is expanding operations through MENA (Middle East/North Africa). The pressure is on to put on more fights while spending less money. That’s a tough spot to be in.

Then there’s the issue of where PFL stands with ESPN and what any new media rights deal might look like in light of upcoming ESPN/TKO negotiations in January.

That’s a lot of moving parts and Donn Davis is not in the driver’s seat.

RIZIN up to run the Tokyo Dome

RIZIN sent a loud and clear message on New Year’s Eve: we’re going big and we’re going for broke.

The promotion announced a date for a Tokyo Dome event on May 4th, Golden Week:

The event will be headlined by a rematch featuring flamboyant Ren Hiramoto vs. Mikuru Asakura. He’s the brother of Kai Asakura. Mikuru is more popular and well-known in Japan for the reality show Breaking Down and has been RIZIN’s biggest draw.

The rematch is a result of an incredibly wild and strange steroid scandal.

Booking the Tokyo Dome for this event is exactly the kind of “no guts, no glory” attitude you would expect from the wily Sakakibara. The biggest venue with the biggest match. A clear matchmaking and promotional path to success or bust.

Will we see UFC fighters in attendance? Will Junior Sakuraba have a big fight on the card? There are plenty of opportunities for matchmaker Shingo “Charlie” Kashiwagi to mix things up, but doors are opening.

If RIZIN falls short, it won’t be for a lack of hustle or trying. Sakakibara has placed his bets.

Donn Davis and PFL are doing the exact opposite.

Donn Davis sends his love… on LinkedIn?

Other than random Tweets that largely side-step any sort of fighter criticisms about (not) getting booked for fights, the PFL marketing campaign has been low-key.

No one is quite sure what to make of what is happening behind-the-scenes weeks before the company starts their Dubai event series.

Is PFL going to be for Dubai what ONE FC is for Thailand?

Is Turki Alalshikh completely done supporting PFL?

Donn Davis has, charitably speaking, struggled to get a consistent message across to the general public. In a very low-profile setting with Mike Heck of MMA Fighting, he struggled to name his favorite PFL fight. Mr. Davis claimed he doesn’t watch other MMA organizations. What other promoter in the MMA space would make such an assertion?

Under pressure to obtain new financing, Donn Davis faces the nearly impossible challenge of putting out a message that can cut through the overwhelming noise emitted by the relentless Endeavor machine that powers the TKO triple monopoly.

The parallels between Donn Davis and AEW’s Tony Khan as public communicators are eerie. They are off in their private bubbles, unable to reach fans with a compelling message. At least Tony Khan is trying to win over internet fans.

Finally, the difference is that AEW is largely a hobby for Tony Khan. His family has Fulham and the Jacksonville Jaguars. He’ll be OK.

Plus, AEW has a much larger brand profile than PFL. It’s not even close. AEW has run two Wembley Stadium events. The PFL could only dream of such a scenario.

With this as the current backdrop, leave it to Donn Davis to send a message to the public… on LinkedIn. I kid you not. Read it for yourself. (Archived link here.)

This letter raises more questions than it answers:

New Year = New Opportunities AND New Challenges. I selected this picture for this post as it embodies both the optimism and the reality of the entrepreneurial journey.

All entrepreneurs reading this know the duality of optimistic joy and crushing reality. The ability to manage both while relentlessly move forward is what each DAY of leading and living is all about.

New Year’s resolutions happen each DAY - think clearer, be more efficient, act more decisively, drive even harder, do better.

Day 1 of Professional Fighters League we were on the NASDAQ big screen on NYC Times Square . . . Optimistic Promise.

Day 2,800 we are still working to fulfill our mission to build this company as we innovate this great sport . . . Hard Reality.

Many founders post their company accomplishments at year end . . . PFL also had great 2024! PFL became the undisputed #2 MMA company worldwide and the #1 fastest growing global sports company.

Revenue: PFL achieved scale crossing the $100m annual revenue threshold.

Audience: PFL broadcast and streaming viewing audience now 2x larger than MLS (PFL year 6 vs MLS year 30) and PFL hit 24 million social media followers (100% increase in 18 months).

Fighters: PFL roster now has 85 of the top 300 world-ranked fighters and UFC has 190 (all others together total just 25).

BUT . . . PFL is NOT perfect, we have LOT of work to do. We are still learning, we have many things to change and improve. PFL will always focus on getting better for fighters and better for fans.

So . . . New Year = New Opportunities! Let’s GO!!!

Who the heck is the audience for this message?

Do you notice what this message doesn’t say as opposed to what it says?

Donn Davis isn’t promoting specific individual stars or fighters. He isn’t promoting any major bouts or major arena dates. Given his prior media appearances, does he know who he is promoting and what he is watching?

UFC promotes its brand. They (sometimes) promote actual fight cards. RIZIN, the little engine that could, is big into themes built around stars they build up. Beautiful posters. World-class production values at venues like Saitama Super Arena and soon the Tokyo Dome. That operation — and its partners — believe in traditional building block promotional principles. Their longevity is starting to pay dividends after a decade’s worth of efforts.

Going into 2025, RIZIN has positioned itself in Japan where the PFL should have been globally. Why is this?

Donn Davis sells spreadsheets. He sells numbers. He admittedly has limited interest in MMA fights and is busy trying to sell an MMA product to money marks and governments.

How do you sell a fight product if you’re not a hardcore fight fan? We know how Ari Emanuel and Mark Shapiro do it — they have Dana White and Hunter Campbell.

RIZIN has Nobuyuki Sakakibara. Cage Warriors has Ian Dean. OKTAGON has passionate promoters who have built a legitimate stadium-level event.

A promoter’s job is to sell fights and fighters to fans, a luxuriously violent dream of tough and gritty physical competition. Fight promotion is not selling widgets or random financial instruments.

And yet, after all of the cash PFL has spent, Donn Davis finds himself in the same boat as Chatri and ONE while his fellow non-UFC peers are busy taking big swings trying to hit home runs.

Of all the venues Donn Davis could have chosen to promote the PFL brand and the value of the fighters on his roster, why did he chose LinkedIn? Who is this guy talking to? Does he even know his audience?

And once you read the message Mr. Davis is writing in his own words, you have to ask yourself why he even got into the business in the first place.

Do something, man. Look at the competition around you. Look at what the fans — the ones that know you exist — and the fighters are asking from you. If you can’t do the job, find someone who can before time runs out on an operation you’ve spent years trying to build up.

Zach Arnold is a lead opinion writer for The MMA Draw on Substack. His archives can be read at FightOpinion.com.