UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington - Expert analysis and predictions from the MMA Vivisection team
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington - Expert analysis and predictions from the MMA Vivisection team
Bloody Elbow is back with highlights from the MMA Vivisection's best fight picks.
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez wasn’t a bad night for the MMA Vivisection, but it wasn’t a great one either. The main card mostly went exactly according to plan, especially if you feel (as many right-thinking folks do) that Park Jun-yong got robbed in his fight with Andre Muniz.
The prelims? Those were less spectacular. Steve Garcia absolutely annihilated Melquizael Costa, for the first KO loss of the Brazilian’s career. Luana Santos edged out a slog against Stephanie Egger, and Talita Alencar picked up a slightly controversial split decision. For those tailing my picks, I went 7-4, Connor went 6-5 for his ill-advised pick of Song Kenan over Kevin Jousset.
Unfortunately none of our underdog picks for the night came through at all. Which is a good reminder that we’re not actually making any gambling picks, because we don’t gamble. Our goal is to help fans get a clear picture of MMA, how it works, who wins fights and why. Some of that info might come in handy along the way, but our first intent is always to keep people informed.
This week, we’ve got a welterweight title fight to dive into between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington. As well as a flyweight title fight b4etween Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval. So let’s take a look at the UFC 296 main card picks.
Edwards vs. Covington
Connor’s keys to the fight
Colby Covington seems like he’s headed toward retirement.
Covington is notably slowing down. Not just in output, but in movement too.
That Jorge Masvidal win was not nearly as dominant as it should have been.
Covington at his best is a pace & pressure fighter, who has had great belief in his ability to break opponents.
Usman KO loss seemed like it changed that. Made Covington more wary.
Covington’s balance seems less surefooted than it used to be.
He can still be coerced into fighting his old style, which still works quite well.
If Covington tries to have a cautious distance fight with Leon Edwards he’ll get chewed up.
Like Masvidal, Leon Edwards can go through stretches of passivity and back himself up to the cage.
Edwards doesn’t tend to let close fights slip away into losses, however.
Edwards is also better about circling off the cage and being elusive.
Edwards has a great clinch.
Covington doesn’t quit on himself.
“[Covington]'s a just a dyed-in-the-wool pace fighter who really really believed in his durability. And really believed that as long as he kept playing his game, both on the feet and wrestling—pressing forward throwing combinations—that he would break people given time. And Kamar Usman hurt him and then knocked him out. And now he knows he's mortal.” - Connor Ruebusch
Zane’s keys to the fight
Colby Covington doesn’t really seem like an invested MMA fighter anymore.
Covington’s output has fallen off pretty dramatically in his last few fights.
His game has never been all that technical or defensively sound. It’s all about creating a pace that doesn’t give opponents time to counter.
Leon Edwards has great range, and fights long.
Edwards doesn’t like to fight in the pocket at all, if he can avoid it, which is where Colby does his best work…