UFC 296 staff picks and predictions

Leon or Colby? Here's who we think will win at UFC 296 this Saturday.

Dec 15, 2023

∙ Paid

The curtain comes down on the UFC 2023 season this weekend with a legitimate banger of a card. UFC 296 has everything; champions, young guns, the old guard, and match-ups that should deliver plenty of fireworks.

We’ve got Leon Edwards defending his UFC welterweight title versus Troll King Colby Covington. We’ve also got Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval in a fight that is guaranteed action. Beyond those title fights there’s Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson and Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett. And there’s lots of intriguing bouts in the prelims, too.

It’s a very rare occasion where a UFC card will have a recognizable name and a fight with legitimate stakes on display regardless of what time you start to tune in.

We’ve had fun dissecting this card and trying to pick who will be the last winners in the UFC Octagon this year.

And we think we’re going to hear “And still…” belted out twice in the T-Mobile, Arena on Saturday. We’re mostly siding with the reigning champs to get the job down and hold their titles through to 2024.

Scroll down to see who else we have picked to win at UFC 296. And, please, tell us your picks down in the comments. Don’t be scared homies!

Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington

Anton Tabuena: Edwards is significantly more technical and has better power on the feet. His wrestling, takedown defense and ability to get back to the feet is also really good, while Covington’s takedowns are more from persistence, pace and pressure, than actual elite wrestling chops. Edwards should have a big edge skill-wise, but Covington will try to bridge that gap by being his tenacious self, and hoping that Edwards still slows down late.

I can see avenues where Covington makes it ugly and just grinds his way to a decision, but he hasn’t really looked good or been active much in the last three years. Him deserving this title shot even is a whole different topic, but can a rusty, declining 35-year-old still keep up that very high pace and remain durable enough to not get sniped by a far superior striker? I’m not sure, but I’m leaning towards no. Leon Edwards by Decision.

Chris: Leon Edwards has always been good but his inability to seize the moment plagued my ability to see him as a truly great fighter. His performance in the third fight with Kamaru Usman was truly transformational. It was inspiring to see a man find his confidence and embrace his abilities. I think the change is permanent and Covington will not have enough in the psychological department to overcome Edwards the champ.

Dayne: I'm still not sold on Edwards being a transformational champion. Not that I hear anyone saying he is going to be that, but he could be if he can survive the oncoming onslaught coming from the young crop making their way up the division, two of which are on this card. Of course, he'll need to beat Covington first, no small feat.

Edwards has had problems stuffing takedowns in the past. Sure, he had no problem turning away Usman in their third contest, but Usman looked old and slow. Given Usman's medical history, that shouldn't be a surprise. Covington doesn't have that history and pushes a harder pace than Usman. If Edwards can't dictate the pace, he'll be in trouble.

What Edwards did have that was once missing is swagger, a champion's confidence. On the flip side Covington's persona hasn’t been as loud this time around. Is that a sign he isn’t as confident? He did lose two title fights after all. That's also telling. Outside of BJ Penn, I can't think of another fighter who finally won UFC gold on their third attempt. Penn did that when he was still young. Covington's best days are likely behind him. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride. Edwards via decision

Stephie: I’m so ready for Covington to be the first in UFC history to challenge for an undisputed title three times and lose all three of them.

Victor: Colby’s striking isn’t good. It’s just a lot of volume, and that’s smart. It works because it helps set up his wrestling and keeps guys guessing. Problem is that guys at the top are too smart for that okey-doke at this stage and he’s been figured out. Leon can shut down the majority of his takedowns, but will inevitably be taken down at some point. From there it becomes a matter of what happens once it gets there and how Leon gets back up. But let’s also not forget that Leon was able to beat the snot out of submission ace Gunnar Nelson and even took down Usman. His experiences fighting Usman for ten rounds should equip him with a lot to arm him for this match-up.

Like this post? Show it off! Send it to a friend now.

This isn’t some one-dimensional novice that Covington can carve up. Colby’s biggest asset will be his relentless pace and cardio, along with his tenacity in doggedly pursuing takedowns. And if you think Leon is dumb enough to not know that and prepare accordingly, you’re just as stupid as whoever booked this absurd fight. Add to that the fact that the last active UFC fighter Colby beat was Rafael dos Anjos in 2018 (yes, go check that) in a close one, and this makes way less sense. Beating the husk of Masvidal and a Robbie Lawler that was on his way out the door while getting flattened and then outworked by Usman during that time shouldn’t inspire confidence for anyone on Colby’s side of the spectrum. What the hell is the point of this matchup when Belal is literally on standby as a backup fighter? Colby doesn’t have any beef with Leon like that and has barely been heard from in the leadup to this. Funniest thing that could happen is Leon working body shots then finishing Colby with another highlight reel headkick. Headshot. Dead. Safe bet is probably a consistent five round thumping that gets worse over time. Leon Edwards by decision.

Zane: I don’t like that none of us are picking Covington, but he is hitting the wrong side of the age equation for a title fighter below middleweight. And, it feels like his recent fights have shown a noted dropoff in volume from his peak performances against RDA/Lawler/Usman (the first time). And a version of Colby Covington that strikes less and has to grind more seems like a version that is more prone to getting sniped by Leon Edwards.

Edwards is just a much, much more accurate striker, and Covington’s fight finishing tools are pretty limited. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him win a round or two and then just eat a huge shot that takes him out of the fight, or flips the whole narrative. That said, I also won’t be surprised if it’s a ridiculously close grind where there’s an argument that Covington won 3 rounds, but the other two were very clear for Edwards. Either way, I expect the big moments in this fight to be on the side of the Brit. Leon Edwards by decision.

Tim: I have a horrid vision of Colby Covington out-muscling Leon Edwards here on route to his crowning achievement here at UFC 296. But I’m trying to fight that off in my belief that if Edwards can prevent Kamaru Usman from wrestle-mugging him (twice), he can do the same to Covington. Edwards has speed, striking and smarts over Covington, so I think he will be able to keep him at range, measure and time him, and then crack him with a KO punch. Leon Edwards by KO.

Staff picking Edwards: Chris, Kristen, Stephie, Victor, Zane, Jack, Tim, Anton
Staff picking Covington: Eddie

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval

Anton: Really fun fight with guaranteed fun scrambles, but I feel like Pantoja is just a tad better everywhere. I also think he has shown more improvements and against better quality opposition since their first fight too. I’m ultimately not sure how long he holds this belt, but I think he’ll keep it for at least one more title defense. Alexandre Pantoja by decision.

Chris: Alexandre Pantoja has proven to be absolutely lethal when he gets back control and as much as I love watching Royval fight, it’s for his scrambles and willingness to go for broke, and essentially the way he embraces chaos. Whenever a technician goes up against an improviser, my money is on the former.

Dayne: At 33, Pantoja may already be past his prime. Plus there's no shortage of former champions who deflated upon achieving their lifelong goal of obtaining the belt. Miesha Tate is the preeminent example. I get those vibes from Pantoja. It doesn't help that Royval has shown some maturity since his last loss.

Despite that, I'm still picking Pantoja. While both fighters are chaos, there's more control to Pantoja's chaos. And while Pantoja slowed down the stretch with Brandon Moreno, this fight isn't going the distance, negating my biggest concern about Pantoja. Out of the viable opponents to challenge Pantoja, Royval came across as the most favorable for Pantoja. After all, Pantoja has one victory over Royval. He'll get another. Pantoja via submission of RD2

Stephie: This is the real main event. Certified. Banger.

Zane: It’ll be a fun fight, but we did already see this. Pantoja is the bigger hitter standing and I doubt Royval can avoid grappling with him. On the floor, Pantoja is better at securing positions and methodically working for submissions. He just feels like a more patient, technical fighter everywhere, which is hard to imagine because he’s such a wildman. Alexandre Pantoja by submission, Round 3.

Tim: I was just so impressed by Alexandre Pantoja’s recent title win, that I have to ride with him here. He’s tough everywhere and hard to put away. Royval is great, too, and this fight is a near toss-up to me. Even so, Alexandre Pantoja via decision

Staff picking Pantoja: Chris, Dayne, Kristen, Stephie, Victor, Zane, Jack, Eddie, Tim, Anton
Staff picking Royval:

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson

Anton: Wonderboy still has tricky striking, but he’s turning 41, and will have a huge disadvantage with physicality and grappling. On the feet perhaps he can still catch him off guard, but I expect Rakhmonov to methodically pressure on the feet and also mix in some takedowns where he can finish. Shavkat Rakhmonov by Submission, R3.

Chris: 2024 is going to be Year of the Horse(lover). If you don’t know, then now you know. Shavkat all day, all year.

Dayne: How appropriate the UFC has Rakhmonov on the same card as the welterweight championship fight. Whoever walks out the champ will have a chance to watch up close and personal the man who could take the belt from them. Rakhmonov is a scary dude who hasn't done a thing to dim his hype.

Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett

Anton: While people weirdly still think Pimblett’s some bright young prospect, he’s clearly closer to being a finished product already after fighting for 11 years as a professional. I don’t really think Pimblett is remotely close to being elite, but he’s fighting the shell of Tony Ferguson that he doesn’t need to be. This is blatantly horrible matchmaking, and it’s obvious who UFC wants to win here even if technically there’s always a chance Tony scores the upset. Pimblett leaves too many openings that Ferguson might be able to crack him early, but with his slow reaction time and clearly diminished physical gifts, I really won’t bank on it happening. Paddy Pimblett by Submission

Chris: I’ve seen a lot of talk about how this is a no-win situation for Paddy: either he gets not credit for beating a beloved, over-the-hill fighter, or he loses to one and is ‘exposed’ as a fraud himself. On one hand the guy is right, but on the other this is what happens to people who are favored by the matchmakers. Some version of this happened to McGregor, O’Malley, even Ronda was accused of being protected from Cyborg. Not everyone gets this treatment so you gotta make the most of it. Too bad Tony’s gonna get it done this time.

Dayne: I have wavered so much on this contest. I'm not a believer in Pimblett. Not that he doesn't deserve his roster spot, but the talent and ceiling doesn't come close to matching the hype. Given how the UFC has matched him thus far, they agree. But that doesn't mean they aren't going to squeeze as much money as they can out of his persona.

Ferguson's best chance would be a sudden KO, but he never had that type of power and Pimblett is durable. Perhaps a bravo choke or something like that is a possibility, but Pimblett is difficult to submit. Outworking Paddy isn't out of the question either, but Ferguson has lost multiple steps. The sooner he accepts that, the better. Pimblett vis decision

Zane: Ferguson very well may look absolutely awesome for the opening minutes of this fight. So much so that he could KO Paddy then and there. But, if he doesn’t?

The MMA Draw Newsletter