UFC 296 technical breakdown: Who is to blame for the tepid main event?

The last event of 2023 didn't end with a bang, but is that cause for concern for the champ moving forward?

Colby Covington by Chris Rini

Why Colby Covington?

Immediately following the end of Leon Edwards’s competitive trilogy with Kamaru Usman, Daniel Cormier played his part in the promotional plan to usher the controversial Colby Covington into another welterweight title shot:

“I know you want to rest and bask in this, but what do you want to see next? I know you’re the champ and I know they’re supposed to call your name, but there’s a guy here that likes to talk and he’s sitting in the crowd and he’ll be looking for a fight”

Edwards was dismissive in his response:

“That man sat out for like a year and a half, two years. He ain’t fought nobody. I might take a little trip to Miami, see what them two welterweights have going on with them. I’ll see what’s going on from there.

It was March of 2023 when Edwards closed the chapter on his career rivalry and Covington had already been without a fight for twelve months. Edwards tried to divert attention to the imminent clash between former title challengers Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal.

There was no way Edwards was going to convince the UFC to select his next challenger meritocratically. The presence of Covington in London for Edwards’s first title defense was as sure a sign as any that the matchmakers had already made up their mind.

I’m not going to pretend that prize fighting hasn’t always been about selling the most tickets, but perhaps UFC 296 can serve as a bit of a lesson. While it’s probably true that a polarizing figure like Covington draws somewhat more attention, at the end of the day people want to see good fights.

At thirty-five years old and with his last victory over a currently active welterweight coming five and a half years prior, it is perhaps no surprise that Covington wasn’t able to offer that.

Given Covington’s lack of competitive success at the top of the welterweight division, is there cause for concern for Edwards’s inability to definitively shut him out of the fight? Is it fair to look at this as a thorough outclassing, only lacking damage due to Covington’s timidity or perhaps Edwards should have a larger share of the blame for not taking out an overmatched opponent?

To answer that question, we’ll have to examine Edwards’s performance and reverse engineering the gameplan. Then we can surmise if there was room for improvement or if there is cause for concern in future fights with increasingly dangerous contenders.

The Initial Plan

It was clear from the very initial moments of the fight that Edwards wasn’t going to let Covington be the one moving forward. It cannot be overstated just how important it was for Edwards the get the directionality of this fight correct.

Edwards is not a committed pressure fighter but he’s not an out-fighter either. He’s a sharpshooter that prefers to sit at range and work single shots and setups, wearing opponents down or capitalizing on their reckless aggression when they attempt to close range (traditionally this would fall into the “boxer-puncher” archetype). That means that he has options when deciding how to maintain that range:

1. He can move backwards and use lateral movement to avoid getting trapped against the fence

2. Or he can choose to be the one pressuring and rely on scaring his opponent into moving backwards

The problem with the first option against a fighter like Covington is that anytime Edwards is anywhere near to having his back to the fence is an opportunity for relentless takedowns and chain wrestling. Edwards recognized this and was determined not to let Covington repeat the success Usman had in their first two meetings.

Edwards pressured Covington, removing opportunities for takedowns. He also used the orthodox stance to fight Covington’s lead hand and make him hesitant to jab.