UFC 297 staff picks and predictions
UFC 297 staff picks and predictions
See who we think will win in Toronto this weekend.
UFC 297 takes place in Toronto this weekend, one of (and I may be bias) the greatest cities in the world (come at me Vancouver). UFC 297 brings a main event between two problematic middleweights, the champion Sean Strickland and the challenger Dricus Du Plessis.
The UFC knows what it’s doing trotting out the absurd and ignorant Strickland, whose narrow view of masculinity oozes fear, desperation and insecurity, in front of crowds (and media) in Sydney and now Toronto. They’re hoping his nonsensical rants, and need to lash out at anything that frightens him, will whip up a media storm and bring more eye-balls to the event. And it works, every time. Bully for them.
But I digress…
Whose going to win? That’s what you’re here for. The Bloody Elbow staff have looked over the entire fight card, which includes Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Raquel Pennington for the vacant UFC women’s bantamweight title, and determined who they think will get their hand raised in what I will also call the Air Canada Centre.
And, sorry Sean… as a whole, we don’t think you’re coming out of this one with your belt. Scroll down to see the rest of our picks for UFC 297. And don’t forget to share yours in the comments!
Sean Strickland vs. Dricus du Plessis
Anton Tabuena: I’m not really sure how Du Plessis keeps winning with terrible technique and fundamentals, but he is durable and he hits hard and sometimes that’s all you need. Strickland is awkward weird, but Du Plessis is awkward bad, and even if Strickland also doesn’t have textbook form, he has a significantly better grasp on fighting as a whole. Dricus will have size and the power to end things, but I think Strickland has refined his own game and will be able to impose his will, especially as the fight drags on longer. If Du Plessis doesn’t land big and finish early, I think the holes in his game will be exposed and he won’t really have many answers. Sean Strickland by decision.
Dayne: The first question I have for this contest is whether Strickland’s title victory was because he’s a far better fighter than anyone thought he was or if Israel Adesanya found the weight of the crown to be too much at that point. If anyone remembers Anderson Silva’s immediate reaction after losing to Chris Weidman or when GSP walked away following his controversial win over Johny Hendricks, it shouldn’t be a surprise. Thus, I’m leaning towards Adesanya needed/needs some time away from the sport.
The other question is if du Plessis is as good as he appears to be. In just about every one of his fights, he appears to be sucking wind and has come dangerously close to losing on several occasions. It doesn’t help his case that Robert Whittaker recently admitted he entered their fight in far less than optimal shape. So even though Strickland doesn’t appear to be as good as a typical champion, I’m not sure du Plessis is either.
Despite that, I have to pick one of them as a winner. One aspect of Strickland’s game that is underrated is his ability to play mind games. Much has been made of his inability to take what he tends to dish out, but I can’t help but wonder if this is a way of his attempting to mess with du Plessis’ head, including their brawl last month. Then again, it could be as simple as stating that du Plessis has gotten into his head. I have no clue. Sigh…
What I do know is Strickland has enjoyed being champion. Maybe a bit too much. He hasn’t made himself as visible as Miesha Tate did when she claimed the belt, but Tate was clearly more focused on enjoying her title than keeping it. I get some of those vibes from Strickland. I have little confidence in my pick – and I’m actually worried given a large majority of the staff agrees with my pick – but I’ll say it will be a new champ. Du Plessis via TKO of RD3
Chris: I just watched Sean Strickland’s press conference and threw all my scientific, pattern recognition formulas out the window. What a jerk.
Jack: Feel like this fight will either be boring or look like a total car crash, and the way the fight goes will likely explain who will win. Boring fight on the feet? Then Sean Strickland is still your champion. Wild car crash? Dricus Du Plessis leaves Toronto with the belt around his waist. I feel the latter is more possible… Du Plessis via TKO of RD2
Eddie: Chaos. That’s what this fight will be. Dricus has gotten to this point by dragging his opponents into a whirlwind of violence, where only muscle memory and reflexes have any time to exist. Unfortunately for him, I’m not sure if anyone is more suited than Sean to deal with just that. Strickland has spent so many hours in live sparring sessions, that I believe he’ll be able to appropriately react to the pressure and pace put on him long enough for Du Plessis to gas out. Sean Strickland by TKO in the championship rounds
Victor: I partially agree with Eddie, Dricus needs to box Sean out the paint early. Even with his improved cardio as a result of his surgery, Dricus’ cardio is very suspect. But he’s also got power and can fight pretty smart, plus I doubt Sean has the power to put Dricus down. Sean can fight smart and has a great coaching staff with him to pinpoint the elements of Dricus’ game where he’s weakest. And there’s some viable options there. But can he keep the pressure for five whole rounds and negate the erratic offense that Drics brings? I dunno, fam. Going with the hunch this belt goes back to Pretoria. Dricus Du Plessis by TKO, round 2.
Zane: The dynamics of this bout are pretty clear. Both Strickland and Du Plessis need to control the front foot. Strickland is much more likely to fill space with volume and to keep a consistent round-winning pace. Dricus is much more likely to secure big, scoring moments. If Du Plessis can’t hurt Strickland or keep Strickland from pressuring him constantly, he’ll almost certainly lose. But, the South African just seems too determined and indefatigable. And if he was willing to go forward and clash with Robert Whittaker, I think he’ll do the same with Strickland. Dricus du Plessis via TKO, round 3.
Tim: I do worry about Du Plessis’ wildness against a seemingly quite controlled Sean Strickland. But I also think Strickland is a little chinny and that Du Plessis’ barrages are going to hit home at some point. Dricus Du Plessis via TKO
Staff picking Strickland: Ben, Eddie, Anton
Staff picking Du Plessis: Tim, Stephie, Chris, Dayne, Kristen, Evan, Jack, Victor, Zane
Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Anton: Not sure who needed this fight, but I just wish it doesn’t reach five rounds. Mayra Bueno Silva by submission.
Dayne: I’m having a hard time picking this fight. An average athlete in the flyweight division, Bueno Silva has been on an absolute tear since moving up to 135, having her hand raised at the end of all four of her contests since making the move. In the shallow bantamweight division, her athleticism has been a major plus and few can match her submission prowess. The Brazilian isn’t without power either. All her physical tools should allow for her to have more routes to victory than Pennington has.
However, Pennington is the definitive lunchpail fighter in the division. No one is going to outwork her. No one is going to prove to be tougher than her. As she has gotten older, Pennington has also gotten more technical. That isn’t to say she’s unbeatable. But her losses have come to a high level of competition, every woman she has lost to in the UFC having held a title belt at one point or another in their career. Obviously, that will remain true if she loses here, but y’all get the point I’m making.
Pennington will have to fight close to a perfect fight if she is to win. She doesn’t have a hell of a lot of power and isn’t a fantastic submission artist herself. Despite that, she’s also difficult to put away, only Amanda Nunes having done that over the course of her decade long UFC career. So while Bueno Silva has more ways to win, I’d argue Pennington dragging Bueno Silva into deep waters and drowning her is the most likely outcome. Pennington via decision
Victor: Mayra is crafty, aggressive and doesn’t waste much time. She’s an opportunist and presents a threat in literally any phase of the fight. We saw it most brilliantly in the Holm fight. And I have to pick the fighter that constantly hunts for the finish in whatever manner it presents itself. Mayra Bueno Silva by submission, round 3.
Zane: This fight is a lot like Strickland vs. Du Plessis. Pennington is steady in her output and limited in her tools, Bueno Silva is wild and chancy and unstructured, but much more dangerous. In these big 5 round fights, I’m just much more willing to pick the known finisher, especially when the consistent grinder isn’t also a top tier athlete. Mayra Bueno Silva via submission, round 2.
Tim: I do see a timeline where nothing happens during this entire fight and somehow Raquel Pennington gets a split decision. But I think, most likely, Mayra Bueno Silva will be able to impose her will on the contest and break a stalemate with something appropriately risky and dynamic. Mayra Bueno Silva via TKO
Staff picking Pennington: Dayne, Jack
Staff picking Bueno Silva: Tim, Ben, Stephie, Kristen, Eddie, Evan, Chris, Victor*, Zane, Anton
Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott
Dayne: Magny hasn’t looked good since his victory over Geoff Neal in 2021. Yes, he’s won three fights in that time, but two of those were controversial decisions and he was losing to Daniel Rodiguez before finding a late stoppage. In other words, this isn’t the same Magny who has been a fixture in the division for over a decade. Thus, even if Malott wins, I’m not sold that Malott is the real deal. Then again, if he loses, I’ll know he isn’t.
While I’m not as high on Malott as some others are, his fight IQ and submission prowess are impressive as hell. It should be enough to make up for the massive size advantage Magny will have. Plus, any opponent who really wanted to take Magny down has done so. Even worse for Magny, they usually keep him down too. If Magny were in his prime, this would be a lot more interesting. As it is, he’s in decline in addition to Malott having a skill set Magny has struggled with. I doubt I’ll be sold on Malott as a contender of any sort, but he should get a definitive win. Malott via submission of RD2
Victor: Nobody spoils upcoming prospects like Neil Magny. I’m picking Malott for his composure, maturity, skill, and athleticism. But I do this with the expectation Magny is still gonna ruin the coming out party for the Canadian. Mike Malott by decision.
Zane: I”m shocked that so many people are riding with Mike Malott. I like his skills a lot and love what I’ve seen. But his win over Mickey Gall is by far the best of his career. He’s been trouncing the lowest end of the WW division and now he’s making the leap up to the top 10. I know Magny doesn’t thrill anyone, but he’s a huge step from the fights Malott has been taking. Neil Magny via decision.
Tim: I’m not sold on Mike Mallott as a prospect. He’s already in his thirties and there is no one on his unbeaten record half as solid or polished as Neil Magny. Magny’s going to keep the gate shut here. Neil Magny via decision
Staff picking Magny: Tim, Zane
Staff picking Mallott: Ben, Stephie, Dayne, Kristen, Eddie, Evan, Jack, Victor, Anton
Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
Dayne: This will all come down to the durability of Barriault. If Barriault can withstand the heatseekers of Curtis, he shouldn’t have too much of a problem outworking Curtis. After all, Curtis managed to secure several UFC wins after covering up for long swathes of the contest before opening up on and unsuspecting opponent and knocking them silly. Barriault might be able to bully the smaller Curtis some, but he won’t be faster. Curtis should find an opening sooner or later and end Barriault’s night early. Curtis via TKO of RD1
Victor: I’ve loved Curtis since his PFL run, but that Gastelum run really, really got me soured on him. Meanwhile, Barriault looks rejuvenated and much sharper than his first few UFC fights and more like he did in TKO. Marc-Andre Barriault by decision.
Zane: Kind of a ‘rubber meets road’ fight for Curtis. He rose up the division with a few surprising performances, but he’s looked pretty out of place against the elite at 185, mostly due to a game that’s just too selective and low output for top tier talent. This is a necessary step back, but it comes against a version of Barriault that’s been looking sharper than ever. I’m still going to pick Curtis, but he needs to find the kind of moments that won him those fights against Buckley & Allen. Chris Curtis via KO, round 2.
Staff picking Curtis: Tim, Ben, Stephie, Dayne, Kristen*, Eddie, Jack, Zane, Anton
Staff picking Barriault: Evan, Victor
Arnold Allen vs. Movsar Evloev
Dayne: This is the most intriguing fight on the card in my book. Allen has the more proven track record, but he’s also benefited from some favorable circumstances on his way to winning his first 10 UFC contests. That isn’t to say Allen sucks – I don’t care how much luck one would have, you have to be good to win that many in a row – but I’m still not sure how good he is.