UFC 303 picks and predictions

Check out who we are picking in the chopped and changed UFC 303 fight card.

Will hands/head of stone win again at UFC 303? Art by Chris Rini

After a quick cash grab in Saudi Arabia the UFC is back to the bright lights of a more familiar desert. UFC 303 goes down in the T-Mobile Arena and if you’d been living under a rock you might still think Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler is the main event and Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. is the co-main. Well… a pinky toe, some DHEA and a Baker cyst have conspired to leave us with Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2 in the main event and Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes in the co-main. Oh MMA Gods, you’re so silly.

Also on the main card is Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael ‘Venom’ Page, Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson and Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze (the ‘replacement’ fight for Hill vs. Rountree).

The prelims are surprisingly deep, so much so I’m wondering why they weren’t packaged in with what the Saudis got last week. Our undercard has Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili, Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Gillian Robertson and appearances from Joe Pyfer, Andrei Arlovski, Charles Jourdain, Ricky Simon and super prospect Payton Talbott.

As always, we’ve had a butcher’s hook at the card (shout out to my people) and decided who we think is going to win come Saturday night. Scroll down for our picks and do what you wish with that information. Please, though, if you’re having a punt — only bet what you can afford to lose.

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Alex Pereira (-150) vs. Jiri Prochazka (+125)

Chris: Hey I’m back and would like to apologize particularly to Tim & Nate for my radio silence. I had no idea how important BE was in my life and have been a little depressed, but we’re turning this ship around. With that said, there’s one thing about Jiri Prochazka that precludes me from picking him: that man gets hit hard in every fight. Alex Pereira, for all his narrowness as an MMA fighter, hits people consistently. If these men were to fight 10 times I could see it splitting close to even, but one of my picking guidelines is that when a technician matches up with an unorthodox fighter, always bet on the technician.

Ben: Prochazka’s successes in the previous fight, and failures, came from his pressuring of Pereira. Can we trust him to reliably and consistently pressure Pereira and avoid those fight ending shots? I’d hazard a guess at no. 

Realistically, the path to victory is there. He’s a potent enough grappler that he can, and did in the first fight, win portions of the round with control/ground and pound. But he’s not the best wrestler either. He was able to tee off multiple times with Pereira’s back to the fence, but closing the distance too aggressively is how he got hurt and finished. 

He will need to walk a fine line to force Pereira on the back foot without exposing himself too often and taking too much damage. It’s a viable path to victory, and the successes from the first fight show it can be done. I just don’t know if Prochazka can pull it off reliably enough to pick him. 

Dayne: I’m a bit shocked to see so little love for Prochazka…