UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena picks and predictions
See who we think will win this Saturday in la belle province.
The UFC makes a rare trip to Canada this weekend with UFC 315 in Montreal, Quebec. It’s main event features a clash for the welterweight title between champion Belal Muhammad and champion Jack Della Maddalena. There’s been some shade thrown at this event, but I’m personally pretty stoked for that match-up.
The co-main event is Valentina Shevchenko for Manon Fiorot for Shevchenko’s flyweight title. This one could be a bit of a slog, but who knows, maybe these two will relive their Muay Thai days and throw some caution to the wind.
Also on the main card is Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi, Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva and Benoit Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec (since, unfortunately, Joel Alvarez couldn’t make it).
There’s some decent action on the undercard, too. Mike Malott vs. Charles Radkte could be very entertaining. And we’ve also got former champ Jessica Andrade taking on certified finisher Jasmine Jasudavicius.
Below are our picks. And they are pretty darn good, as per usual. We’re all picking winners at a rate over 60%. And I’m 12-2 on my lock picks. That’s the pick we make each week which we feel especially confident about.
Scroll down to see who I’ve picked this time around.
If you’re using this info for betting, please do so responsibly (and don’t yell at us if we’re wrong).
Belal Muhammad (-195) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (+165)
Miguel Class: I keep going back and forth about this fight. On the one hand, Belal has solidified himself as one of the smartest and best-prepared fighters in the sport. He has developed an effective boxing game built on the very solid foundation of his jab and his wrestling has only been looking better and better. He also has gotten stronger in his mid thirties, which has helped to make up for his lack of athleticism in other areas. Meanwhile, JDM is a supremely talented boxer-puncher with craft and flexibility on the feet that allows him to be formidable on the lead as well as the counter…
I’m not sure how much all of that matters though if Belal can successfully pressure him to the fence and force him to defend takedowns. We’ve seen JDM outwrestled, most recently against Gilbert Burns, but his scrambling is quite good and my hunch is that he’s only going to be getting better and better. That plus the fact that I’m not sure how well Belal will be able to pressure effectively against an opponent that can catch, parry, and counter his jab consistently.
Belal certainly has other weapons on the feet (his kicks are underrated and remember the nasty uppercut he nailed Leon with), but overall I think his striking matches up quite poorly with JDM. Belal might be fine in the first layer, but once JDM starts extending exchanges, chasing Belal out of the pocket or dropping back to run him onto counters, I think the liabilities in Belal’s defense and footwork will become apparent.
I’m going to go with JDM here. I actually don’t think Belal is quite as brilliant of a gameplanner as he has been made out to be. If he was, why didn’t he employ the gameplan he used to beat down Leon in their first fight? Belal’s strength lies more in the fact that he’s flexible and well-rounded, which allows him to choose the path of least resistance in fights. Against Wonderboy and Leon, it was obvious that he needed to pressure and wrestle. Against Maia, Brady, and Burns it was obvious that he was going to use his wrestling defensively and pick them apart on the feet. I think perhaps the smarter pick is to assume that Belal will be able to outwrestle JDM, but waltzing into the pocket for five rounds to do that seems like a tough ask. JDM by late TKO.
Blaine Henry: I view Belal Muhammad much like I viewed Tyron Woodley and Kamaru Usman. I see them as good fighters, not great, but they just keep beating fighters they shouldn’t. But he does.
Muhammad can very well beat Jack Della Maddalena. But instead of looking at tactics and such, like Miguel above, I look at Muhammad’s age. At 36 years old, time is ticking. Maddalena is only 28.
When I think of this matchup, I think of why Muhammad beat Edwards. Edwards glaring hole, his insistence on engaging on his own terms, played into Muhammad’s plan. I don’t think Maddalena will have that issue. Maddalena is incredibly in the pocket.
I think Muhammad’s inability to finish people will hurt him in this fight. JDM via R5 TKO
Nate Wilcox: Belal will have to get through JDM’s best range to impose his will. That’s a big ask to do over five rounds. I can see Belal dominating position (or cage hugging) the majority of ⅗ of the rounds but I give him almost no chance to finish and JDM will have a chance to finish in every single round also striking damage is cumulative. JDM by TKO.
Tim Bissell: I think this is a really close match-up and I’ve gone back and forth on who I think will win. I really like Muhammad’s chances of dragging Della Maddalena to the cage, to the mat and into deep waters (he’s never gone five rounds, remember?). But I’m also such a big sucker for a pretty stand up game. I can really see JDM lighting up Belal in some exchanges (like Edwards did in their first fight) and that taking a lot of the power and relentlessness out of Muhammad’s bullying/smothering game. Ultimately, I’m more swayed over to Della Maddalena due to that striking, which is crazy when you look at the stats. Della Maddalena is in the top two for significant strikes landed, striking differential, knockdown rate and significant striking defense. He has a sick lizard brain that sees angles to punches and he is brutal about executing on them. I think he’s going to hurt Muhammad in this fight. I don’t know if he’ll get the finish, but I think his flashy striking and a few knockdowns will give him a close decision. Jack Della Maddalena by split decision
Picking Muhammad: Kristen King, Stephie Haynes
Picking Della Maddalena: Miguel Class, Blaine Henry, Nate Wilcox, Tim Bissell
Picking Over 4.5 rounds: Kristen, Tim, Stephie
Picking Under 4.5 rounds: Miguel, Blaine
Want to see more from Miguel Class? Check out his Patreon where he releases video essays and breakdowns on MMA technique. They are really really good.
Valentina Shevchenko (+105) vs. Manon Fiorot (-125)
Miguel: This is about as interesting of a fight as you could make in the division, on paper. In reality it could be brutal to watch. Both Shevchenko and Fiorot are not opposed to empty volume on the outside and both also quickly turn to grappling under duress. Fiorot being a southpaw is likely to make Shevchenko even more annoyed in the pocket, which means she’ll probably be staying away and looking to mix up kicks with well-timed reactive doubles. Shevchenko is certainly getting old though and while Fiorot is only two years her junior, the champ has logged 15 more years in the sport than the French challenger. While that experience could be help Shevchenko, especially if the fight gets tough, it seems more likely that it will work to her detriment as she has to deal with one of the few fighters who can match (or perhaps even exceed?) her size and athleticism.
Fiorot has looked most vulnerable when she’s put under pressure, but that certainly isn’t going to be Shevchenko’s approach. In a slow-paced, long range kickboxing fight I have to pick Shevchenko given her proven track record, but I think this fight is more likely going to be decided by the grappling since both are quick to mix it in and minutes of control will easily tip rounds into the favor of whichever fighter is on top. Perhaps the biggest issue is that Shevchenko cannot help wrapping up the clinch whenever her opponent gets too close and she regularly makes bad decisions there. Fiorot has some judo skill that could allow her to come out on top in those messy clinch exchanges and that, along with being able to compete with the champ in size and strength, is enough for me to pick her in a dull fight. Fiorot by decision.
Blaine: I thought we were past Valentina Shevchenko fights in 2025 but here we are. Valentina likes to engage on her own terms, like the aforementioned Leon Edwards. Fiorot has a great jab that was showcased in her last two wins.
I fully think that Fiorot is going to take this fight, but don’t expect it to be fun. Fiorot via decision
Nate: All I know is it’s going to be a long fight, a full five rounds. I guess I’ll take Shevchenko via decision.
Tim: I really like the idea of Manon Fiorot. Her striking is great to look at it, but she’s not gotten any finishes since her second fight in the UFC. And I don’t think, technically, she’s better than Shevchenko when it comes to Muay Thai. If anything I think they are tied in that department. Because I think this is a wash on the feet, Shevchenko’s wrestling is very meaningful to me. Fiorot has not been taken down much in the UFC, but I think Shevchenko is going to do a great job of mixing her striking with takedown attempts and we could see her get on top of Fiorot and stay there for an entire round (like she did to Grasso last time out). Valentina Shevchenko by unanimous decision
Picking Shevchenko: Kristen, Nate, Tim, Stephie
Picking Fiorot: Miguel, Blaine
Picking Over 4.5 rounds: Miguel, Blaine, Kristen, Nate, Tim, Stephie
Picking Under 4.5 rounds:
Blaine Henry’s Fight Library on YouTube has lots of gold for MMA and Combat Sports fans. Check out his latest video here: Fight Finders 006: Can a new wrestling program return to LSU?
Alexa Grasso (+210) vs. Natalia Silva (-260)
Miguel: I don’t have much confidence in Grasso at this point. It’s very rare that the younger fighter gets worse throughout a trilogy, but that’s what happened to her against Shevchenko. Her boxing game is all over the place and her grappling is as suspect as ever. Natalia Silva is lightning fast and will probably light Grasso up at long range. Grasso hasn’t looked willing or able to close the distance and is probably worse than Jessica Andrade at it even on her best days. Silva by decision.
Nate: Silva should be able to score enough points on the feet to take the D. Silva by decision.
Tim: I’m picking Silva, but I think these odds are whack. Grasso deserves way more respect than this (she was the favorite in her trilogy fight with Shevchenko last year). I think this is a very close fight that should be a pick ‘em as far as betting lines are concerned. I think Silva is going to edge this, but Grasso is a very live dog. She’s capable of unleashing the spectacular out of nowhere. So buyer beware on this pick. Natalia Silva by split decision
Picking Grasso:
Picking Silva: Miguel, Blaine, Kristen, Nate, Tim, Stephie
Picking Over 2.5 rounds: Miguel, Blaine, Kristen, Nate, Tim, Stephie
Picking Under 2.5 rounds:
Stephie Haynes produces a number of fantastic podcasts. Among those is Hey Not The Face! with John S. Nash. Check out the latest episode here.
Jose Aldo (-210) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+175)
Miguel: This is a very bizarre fight that I’m 100% tuning in for. Aldo’s longevity is unparalleled and as crafty of a striker as Zahabi is, he’s not going to be able to outfox Aldo. That means he needs Aldo to get tired because he’s not the pressure grappler that Merab or Maurio Bautista were. We’ll certainly get to see some cool stuff in this fight, but I don’t think Zahabi should be able to trouble Aldo much for the first half of the fight and he’s not overwhelming enough to finish him late. Aldo by decision.
Blaine: If I ever pick against Jose Aldo, it’s a secret message that Nate has me held hostage somewhere. Aldo via decision
Nate: Eventually Jose Aldo won’t be worth picking but that time has not yet come. Aldo by decision.
Tim: This is a really weird match-up. You’d think the UFC would serve up a legend to some up and coming killer from the market you’re visiting. Aiemann Zahabi is no spring chicken and he’s not very violent either. He’s a well-ish rounded and quite plodding stand up fighter. He’s also just a year younger than Aldo. I think Aldo is going to stlye on him and hurt him with those famous leg kicks. Jose Aldo by unanimous decision
Picking Aldo: Miguel, Blaine, Kristen, Nate, Tim, Stephie
Picking Zahabi:
Picking Over 2.5 rounds: Miguel, Blaine, Kristen, Nate, Tim, Stephie
Picking Under 2.5 rounds:
I’m breaking down the performances from the Spring Tournament over on Sumo Stomp! Come check it out.
Benoit Saint-Denis (-1150) vs. Kyle Prepolec (+650)
Miguel: Prepolec is a late notice replacement who had a short stint in the UFC six years ago. He has some southpaw striking tricks and can throw a nice right hook, but there’s little chance he repeats Dustin Poirier’s success with it and will almost certainly get overwhelmed by BSD’s grappling in the first round. BSD by early submission.
Blaine: This fight was much cooler when it was Saint-Denis vs. Joel Alvarez. Look for the body kick for Saint-Denis and for him to be a bit more reserved this fight to get experience with his past cardio issues.
Nate: I’m not picking the short notice substitute. BSD by submission.
Tim: There’s no way I bet on Saint Denis in this match-up. He’s probably going to win, but my upset-radar is pinging a little with this one. BSD is coming off two brutal losses and the last minute opponent change has put a ton of pressure on his shoulders. Prepolec, which sounds like something I should ask my doctor about, has been in the Octagon before. He might very well come out and surprise us. For the purpose of this newsletter, though, I’m placing a very tepid pick on the favorite. Benoit Saint Denis by decision
Picking Saint-Denis: Miguel*, Blaine*, Kristen, Nate, Tim, Stephie*
Picking Prepolec:
Picking Over 1.5 rounds: Tim
Picking Under 1.5 rounds: Miguel, Blaine, Kristen, Nate, Stephie
Brad Katona (+130) vs. Bekzat Almakhan (-155)
Miguel: We haven’t seen Almakhan since his debut loss to Umar Nurmagomedov, but his decent performance in that fight (even dropping the Dagestani early in the first) has aged well. Escaping from underneath Umar a few times is no small feat, even if he never figured out how to deal with the lightning fast takedowns. Katona doesn’t present as dynamic threats, but he is crafty and determined and seems to be able to draw a tough fight out of everyone. I’m going to pick Almakhan because I think he has some athletic upside and I don’t think Katona can keep up with having these grueling fights for too long, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the veteran savvy of Katona allowed him to come out on top here. Almakhan by decision.
Tim: All we’ve seen of Almakhan is a smothering loss to Umar Nurmagomedov. Brad Katona is far more experienced at this level and he looked good in his last fight, a close decision loss to Jean Matsumoto (who is very good). Brad Katona by unanimous decision
Picking Katona: Kristen, Tim, Stephie
Picking Almakhan: Miguel, Blaine, Nate
Marc-Andre Barriault (-150) vs. Bruno Silva (+125)
Miguel: Two middleweights on bad losing streaks. I think Barriault has looked better in his defeats than Silva, who has just fallen off a cliff. Barriault by decision.
Tim: These guys can’t buy a win at the moment. Barriault has been KTFO’d twice in a row now. Bruno Silva has lost boring decisions. The Brazilian is durable as hell, though. He’s lasted three rounds with both Shara Magomedov and Alex Pereira. I don’t think Barriault can stop him and that leads me to think we’re in for a boring decision that Silva comes out on top of. Bruno Silva by unanimous decision
Picking Barriault: Miguel, Blaine, Nate
Picking Silva: Kristen, Tim, Stephie
Mike Malott (-170) vs. Charles Radtke (+140)
Miguel: Malott had shown some dynamic offense and athleticism, but his last two fights have removed most of the wind from his sails. Getting tired and finished against Neil Magny is one thing, but having a slow-paced sparring match with Trevin Giles is quite dire. Malott just seems a bit too formless, lacking much in the way of a discernible process. Luckily though they’re not rushing Malott back into fighting notable fighters and giving him another winnable match. Radtke is a finishing threat with some decent punching mechanics, but he’ll probably just get outkicked. Malott by decision.
Tim: This could be a fun fight and it could be over quickly. I think Radtke quite odious, personally, but I also believe his striking might be too much for Malott to handle. Malott isn’t a prospect, he’s well into his thirties. He’s got some OK grappling, but he looks quite wooden on his feet. Charles Radtke by TKO, round 1.
Picking Malott: Miguel, Blaine, Kristen, Nate, Stephie
Picking Radtke: Tim
Jessica Andrade (+260) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (-340)
Miguel: This is a pretty fair matchup between experienced flyweights. Andrade has mostly lost to top flight fighters and hasn’t traditionally struggled with grinder types like Jasudavicius, but she has been on the decline so at some point she’ll start losing these kinds of fights, especially at flyweight. I haven’t seen that yet though and it seems like she has held onto her strength pretty well in her 14th year as a pro, so I think she’ll be able to outmuscle the Canadian in the tie ups and she has craftier boxing (when she’s on). Andrade by decision.
Blaine: Trying to takedown Jessica Andrade is a 50/50 gamble. Jasmine Jasudavicius is a bit up in the air. She will look to prove herself as a top contender. But Andrade is washed. Jasudavicius will likely win this one. Jasudavicius via R3 sub
Tim: Jasmine Jasudavicius is massive compared to Jessica Andrade. Andrade has overcome those size discrepencies in the past, but at this stage of her career (despite her only being 33), I think this will be a bridge too far. I expect Jasudavicius to get her down and just dominate from there, searching for subs and slicing her up with nasty elbows. Jasmine Jasudavicius by submission, round 2.
Picking Andrade: Miguel
Picking Jasudavicius: Blaine, Kristen, Nate, Tim*, Stephie
Navajo Stirling (-340) vs. Ivan Erslan (+260)
Miguel: This is a fun but slightly dangerous test for Stirling, who looks like the rare promising light heavyweight prospect. He’s certainly a far more schooled striker than Erslan, but he doesn’t have the same kind of raw power, so he’ll have to be careful. No reason to expect him not to pick Erslan apart though. Stirling by late TKO.
Tim: Navajo Stirling didn’t inspire too much hype after a pretty tepid win over Tuco Tokkos (who is not good enough to be in the UFC). Ivan Erslan looked OK in his debut against Ion Cutelaba. In this fight, though, I’m favoring Stirling’s nine inch reach advantage. I think Erslan will pressure him and then be sorry he did. Navajo Stirling by KO, round 1.
Picking Stirling: Miguel, Blaine, Kristen*, Nate, Tim, Stephie
Picking Erslan:
Modestas Bukauskas (Evens) vs. Ion Cutelaba (-120)
Miguel: I swear these two have already fought, but Wikipedia says otherwise. Perhaps it’s because they both just fought on the same card in February. Cutelaba has been leaning into his grappling a bit more recently and it has served him well. If he gets stuck on the feet against Bukauskas it probably won’t go well. The state of light heavyweight means that Bukauskas is still somewhat unproven as a grappler, but getting stuck underneath Vitor Petrino wasn’t a great sign. Cutelaba by decision.
Tim: This could be a fun fight and I expect a finish. I think Bukauskas length and athleticism might give Cutelaba some trouble. He got a nice upset win last time out, but I think we were too high on Ibo Aslan leading into that one. Modestas Bukauskas by TKO, round 2.
Picking Bukauskas: Blaine, Kristen, Nate, Tim, Stephie
Picking Cutelaba: Miguel
Daniel Santos (Evens) vs. Jeong Yeong Lee (-120)
Miguel: This is a fun action fight for the early prelims. Santos and Lee are both dangerous but defensively void fighters who probably aren’t young enough to have time to put it together in the featherweight shark tank. Santos’s two year layoff is a major concern, but he’s the more consistent offensive fighter of the two as Lee fights more in peaks and troughs. Those bursts of offense from Lee are scary though, so it feels like it could go either way. I like the more steady output and pressure of Santos though, even if he might be a bit outmatched for potency here. Santos by decision.
Tim: Daniel Santos has had a weird career. He’s pulled out of more fights than most and he has some footnotes on Tapology about the legitmiacy of some of his wins. He’s been out of action for a while and I just don’t trust him in this match-up. Jeong Yeong Lee made the mistake of going toe-to-toe with Hyder Amil last time out. This time, I expect he’ll adopt a more measured approach. Jeong Yeong Lee by unanimous decision
Picking Santos: Miguel, Blaine, Kristen, Nate, Stephie
Picking Lee: Tim
Leader board
I’m clinging onto that top spot thanks to my lock picks! Kristen and Miguel are lurking just behind me, though. If I miss on that this week, and they hit theirs, they could hop above me. I’ve gone with Jasudavicius this week. Kristen has Stirling and Miguel has Saint Denis.
This is wiiiillllllddddd!!!!
Only one person picking Belal!!!
He’s essentially my lock of the whole event 😂
This is the thing I love most about MMA. Fans having completely different views on a fight outcome.
Call me crazy, but I’m really looking forward to this card.