UFC Austin: Expert analysis and predictions from the MMA Vivsection team
Bloody Elbow is back with highlights from the MMA Vivisection's best fight picks.
UFC 295 was a bit of a mixed bag for the MMA Vivisection. Connor nailed the main event, picking Alex Pereira to win inside the distance, while we both missed on Andrade and took Aspinall to win.
Borshchev looked like he was primed to be our big underdog pick for the card, but some major moments of violence saw Nazim Sadykhov walk away with a draw instead. Otherwise it was a pretty chalky night of fights.
As always, we’re not here to provide anything so direct as a betting guide. Our goal is to provide the best insight we can who is likely to win their upcoming bout and why. To that end, we’ve been pretty successful over the years. Not just with picking percentages, but enough solid insight that our own Connor Ruebusch has even made a solid business producing scouting reports for fighters in the UFC on their upcoming opponents.
We’ve got a totally decent Fight Night card on ESPN to go over, headlined by a top-tier lightweight bout between Beneil Dariush and Arman Tsarukyan. Check out our notes below for the main event as well as the rest of the main card.
Dariush vs. Tsarukyan
Connor’s keys to the fight
Arman Tsarukyan’s striking has only recently started to click.
He’s also a very thoughtful, positionally strong grappler who doesn’t let opponents off the hook easily.
Beneil Dariush is a very hard man to out-grapple or out-scramble.
Tsarukyan is vulnerable moving backwards.
Dariush’s pressure could take away Tsarukyan’s kicking game.
Dariush has a great jab and good striking form up until the ‘red mist’ hits.
Dariush’s time with Rafael Cordeira has made him a very confident pressure fighter.
Dariush has conditional cardio and dumps a lot of energy at times.
Tsarukyan is great at forcing opponents to constantly fight his dominant grappling positions.
Dariush seems more likely to get finished
“Before the red mist descends he is okay. I mean, Dariush has a jab, Dariush has solid footwork. He gets into a brawl and his form goes to complete shit, yeah, but it's in service of him being incredibly dangerous.” — Connor Ruebusch
Zane’s keys to the fight
Beneil Dariush did get taken down early and controlled somewhat by Mateusz Gamrot.
Arman Tsarukyan is a more creative, less matchup dependent striker than Gamrot.
Tsarukyan is also better at maintaining control.
Dariush has never actually fought into the fourth round.
Feels likely that Dariush will have bigger single moments if it goes all 5 rounds.
Michael Chiesa & Charles Oliveira losses suggest room to win grappling battles against Dariush.
Connor’s pick: Arman Tsarukyan, for being the younger, more athletic fighter.
Zane’s pick: Arman Tsarukyan, for his late fight cardio and solid positional grappling.
Turner vs. Green
Connor’s keys to the fight
Not convinced Bobby Green can give Jalin Turner the front foot and not get hit hard early.
Turner is fine eating shots, because he’s so single minded on creating offense.
Dan Hooker rallied against Turner, but he also almost got KO’d by him.
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