UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura staff picks and predictions
See who we think will rule the UFC APEX on Saturday night.
The UFC is back in the APEX this weekend with a card that looks drastically different from what we were treated to at UFC 299. The main event we’re getting in the smaller cage is Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura.
The co-main pits Ange Loosa vs. Bryan Battle. Rounding out the main card is Ovince Saint Preux vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu, Christian Rodriguez vs. Isaac Dulgarian and Pannie Kianzad vs. Macy Chiasson. Not exactly a festival of household names, but they could still produce some interesting bouts.
And we at The MMA Draw (formerly Bloody Elbow, but not to be confused with whatever BE is now) have looked over these match-ups and decided who we think will get their hands raised come Saturday night.
In the main event, we’re pretty sold on the idea that a shoey will be performed inside the souless APEX facility. Zane is the only one picking Marchin Tybura to win the fight (though, it should be noted, Zane is no slouch when it comes to picking winners).
Scroll down for the rest of our picks and don’t forget to share your picks in the comments below!
Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura
Dayne: Tuivasa has established himself as one of the harder hitters on the roster. That led to his win over another reputable hard hitter in Derrick Lewis and has had him fighting the best in the division ever since. The likes of Ciryl Gane, Sergei Pavlovich, and Alexander Volkov have revealed Tuivasa’s shortcomings and established he’s not going to break into the elite. But Tybura isn’t an elite fighter. And while Tybura isn’t incapable of securing finishes, Tuivasa is exceptionally durable and I don’t believe Tybura is skilled enough on the ground to submit Tuivasa.
Thus, that leaves Tuivasa five rounds to find a bomb to drop and put away Tybura. I would still give Tybura the edge in overall stamina, but Tuivasa manages to keep throwing even when he’s tired. Tuivasa has made enough improvements over his UFC run that I think he can find that bomb and snap his three-fight losing streak. Tuivasa via KO of RD3
Zane: I can’t do it, and I especially can’t do it after the first round. For all his time and experience, Tai Tuivasa is still a meltdown artist. He hasn’t developed any range tools outside of low kicks, he hasn’t developed any takedown defense or submission grappling. He’s a pocket slugger and he’s not even an unbreakable one. Marcin Tybura’s standup is as janky as janky gets and he doesn’t have power, but he’s got a lot of heart and some real grappling chops. Most notably,when pushed, he’s a strong scrambler with unusually good backtake ability for a big man. I think Tuivasa will push Tybura in just the right ways to lose to him. Marcin Tybura via RNC, Round 2.
Tim: I’m not super confident in Tai Tuivasa here and I can definitely see Marcin Tybura turning this into a very boring affair against the cage, with Tuivasa being totally puzzled about how to get the fight into areas he’s more likely to find success in. However, if I have to pick I’m going to go with the fighter who I think has more potential to finish the fight. I think, over five rounds, there will be just too much opportunity for Tuivasa to find that strike he needs to end this. Tai Tuivasa via TKO, Round 4.
Nate: Tuivasa should catch Tybura at some point. Shoeys all round.
Staff picking Tuivasa: Nate, Kristen, Stephie, Eddie, Dayne, Evan, Tim
Staff picking Tybura: Zane
Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa
Dayne: Loosa is the better pure athlete, but I don’t get the feeling he’s ever going to put everything together. On the flip side, while Battle isn’t without talent, he’s an overachiever. For better or worse, Loosa tends to fight up or down to the level of his competition, thus I would expect the fight to be fairly close. Regardless, I’d be shocked if Battle isn’t the one having his arm raised in the end. Battle via decision
Zane: Should be a very close fight. Loosa has the more diverse, technical striking and wrestling game, but he’s also a lot more limited as to the range and style of fight he likes to have. As a pretty reactive talent, Battle is comfortable everywhere, whether out at range, in the pocket, or on the mat. Loosa really only likes to storm forward and fight on the inside, and tends to do so in bursts. If Battle can land enough counters to keep Loosa honest when he’s blitzing, I think he’ll be the much more active fighter from distance. Enough so to squeak out a decision. Bryan Battle by decision.
Tim: Battle is the more accurate striker (54% vs. 46%). And he absorbs way fewer strikes per minute (3.73 vs. 6.88). Those stats plus his three inch reach advantage have me pretty confident that he can win this on the scorecards against a man who has decent wrestling, but isn’t so far ahead there that he can use it to completely nullify the striking game. Bryan Battle via unanimous decision.
Staff picking Battle: Nate, Kristen, Stephie, Eddie, Dayne, Evan, Zane, Tim
Staff picking Loosa:
Ovince Saint Preux vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu
Dayne: There’s no reason to expect Saint Preux to win another fight. He no longer has the level of explosion that allowed him to win so often in yesteryear. Given his unorthodox style was so dependent upon that, I think he’s done. Nzechukwu has been prone to mental lapses, so I wouldn’t say it’s an impossibility for Saint Preux to win – he does still have power – but it’s highly unlikely. Regardless, I expect there to be a degree of sadness watching this contest. Kennedy Nzechukwu via TKO of RD2
Zane: OSP is done. I don’t know there’s one LHW in the UFC I’d pick him confidently to beat inside the cage. It’s definitely not the rare guy that’s actually bigger than him. Kennedy Nzechukwu by TKO, round 2.
Tim: I think 40-years-old should be a mandatory retirement age in the UFC. OSP has been KO’d in three of the last four bouts. He could get really hurt here. Kennedy Nzechukwu via KO, round 1.
Staff picking Saint Preux:
Staff picking Nzechukwu: Nate, Kristen, Stephie*, Eddie*, Dayne, Evan, Zane*, Tim*
Christian Rodriguez vs. Isaac Dulgarian
Dayne: In terms of raw skills, Dulgarian has the edge. In terms of quality experience, Rodriguez has an even bigger edge. That Rodriguez is being forced to fight up at featherweight after continuously missing weight at bantamweight is going to hurt his trajectory, but he impressed against Jonathan Pearce a few years back. Given Dulgarian hasn’t left the first round in his career, I can’t help but think the fight will make a sharp downward turn should he finally taste life outside the opening round. This won’t be the first time Rodriguez teaches a lesson to a hyped prospect. Rodriguez via decision
Zane: Little surprised to see everyone going with Rodriguez here. He showed out well against two very limited talents in Rosas and Saimaan, but I still think he’s going to have a lot of trouble with good athletes who don’t give up easy opportunities. That especially feels true at 145, where he’ll be a pretty small fighter who never had the speed of a top end bantamweight to lean on. Maybe Dulgarian can’t put him away and gasses like Rosas did, but he seems like a much more mature, powerful, and lockdown wrestler. Isaac Dulgarian by decision.
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