That's what I've been telling many people on YouTube. The UFC may generate record earning profits, but MMA is shrinking more than growing. And yet, you have some who still believe the UFC will break into the mainstream in the Paramount Era, and I have to remind them that window closed following the Rousey-McGregor era.
I laugh when I see the UFC cult and their followers take the victory lap regarding the viewership numbers of UFC 324. They're not ready for the drop.
MMA is growing as a sport. You can easily tell by looking at how many MMA gyms are popping up, how many regional events are selling out arenas, and how the UFC is still selling out events despite growing ticket prices. It's a niche sport and always has been outside of a couple of big events and stars, but that niche is very clearly growing.
"The United States, long the backbone of MMA, has seen a sharp decline in activity. In 2009, more than 6,266 professional fights took place across the country. This would be the pinnacle for American MMA contests. By 2024, that number had dropped to just over 3,027 — a 52% decrease.
Brazil and Russia, historically the sport’s second- and third-largest markets, tell the same story. Brazil peaked in 2013 with 3,875 bouts; by 2024, it hosted just 2,181. Russia hit its high in 2018 with 3,141 fights, and now sees only 1,782 annually.
Other English-speaking strongholds like Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia — each a key piece of MMA’s global expansion strategy — have also experienced steep contractions.
Combined, these three nations went from 1,941 fights in 2011 to just 845 in 2024."
Not a relevant stat to bring up for several reasons:
- the amateur scene has been steadily growing every year in every country and many of those pro fights have been replaced with amateur bouts. You have amateur fighters making money before they've even had their first pro fights and there's less reason for fighters to rush their pro career.
- how many of those missing fights are actual competitive matchups and not regional can crushing or record padding? More pro fights does not mean a healthier pro scene both in terms of the skill level of fights and financial compensation for the fighters themselves. Khabib fought 15 times in 3 years before he got to the UFC specifically because he came from an underdevelopped and poorly organized regional scene.
- This straight-up ignores the devellopment of the regional scene in other countries (remember that MMA was straight-up illegal in France until 2020, despite the wealth of talent and a clear interest from audiences in the country).
Note that MMA matches in the US peaked in 2009. That was before the UFC flooded the zone with weekly events and drowned all the regional promoters. It also correlates to the period of MMA's highest broadcast TV numbers -- 2007 to 2011.
Nate, do you earnestly, legitimately believe that the 2.4 million PPV buys done by UFC 229 only translated to 2.4 million viewers in the US? Or that Joshua Van vs Rei Tsuruya was actually the most watched UFC fight of last year? What is even your source?
There's no way to estimate total viewers of a PPV that I know of. I had different sources for almost every fight, and like I said in the post, I'm not interested in debating the specific details. The point is the general trend. Do you have any reason to believe that the general trend lines are off?
Do you seriously think every single person who bought the PPV watched it on their own? This doesn't even consider people who watched it in bars or other social settings either.
In my area the bars like Hooters, Buffalo Wild Wings haven’t shown PPVs in years. Last one was Izzy vs Kelvin. UFC PPVs in recent years were probably watched solo by people. Those days of groups getting together to watch UFC are long gone. One example are My friends and coworkers stopped watching UFC years ago. So often times it’s me running solo on a PPV.
You could do the same multiplication for every one of these TV broadcasts. Between 2006 and 2015 all the major MMA shows on broadcast TV were streamed in packed sports bars. None of that happens anymore for any MMA event.
That's what I've been telling many people on YouTube. The UFC may generate record earning profits, but MMA is shrinking more than growing. And yet, you have some who still believe the UFC will break into the mainstream in the Paramount Era, and I have to remind them that window closed following the Rousey-McGregor era.
I laugh when I see the UFC cult and their followers take the victory lap regarding the viewership numbers of UFC 324. They're not ready for the drop.
MMA is growing as a sport. You can easily tell by looking at how many MMA gyms are popping up, how many regional events are selling out arenas, and how the UFC is still selling out events despite growing ticket prices. It's a niche sport and always has been outside of a couple of big events and stars, but that niche is very clearly growing.
Is MMA growing as a sport or is it growing as a lifestyle/recreational activity?
Business-wise, there's UFC and then everyone else. Most UFC fans see MMA as UFC-or-bust.
If it's growing as a sport, where will the next key players develop outside of UFC on a promotional level?
MMA is NOT growing as a sport. The stats on non-UFC MMA are brutal and show a serious, long-lasting decline. https://sports.yahoo.com/mma/article/ufc-is-booming-but-is-mma-collapsing-around-it-the-data-is-concerning-164111448.html
"The United States, long the backbone of MMA, has seen a sharp decline in activity. In 2009, more than 6,266 professional fights took place across the country. This would be the pinnacle for American MMA contests. By 2024, that number had dropped to just over 3,027 — a 52% decrease.
Brazil and Russia, historically the sport’s second- and third-largest markets, tell the same story. Brazil peaked in 2013 with 3,875 bouts; by 2024, it hosted just 2,181. Russia hit its high in 2018 with 3,141 fights, and now sees only 1,782 annually.
Other English-speaking strongholds like Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia — each a key piece of MMA’s global expansion strategy — have also experienced steep contractions.
Combined, these three nations went from 1,941 fights in 2011 to just 845 in 2024."
Not a relevant stat to bring up for several reasons:
- the amateur scene has been steadily growing every year in every country and many of those pro fights have been replaced with amateur bouts. You have amateur fighters making money before they've even had their first pro fights and there's less reason for fighters to rush their pro career.
- how many of those missing fights are actual competitive matchups and not regional can crushing or record padding? More pro fights does not mean a healthier pro scene both in terms of the skill level of fights and financial compensation for the fighters themselves. Khabib fought 15 times in 3 years before he got to the UFC specifically because he came from an underdevelopped and poorly organized regional scene.
- This straight-up ignores the devellopment of the regional scene in other countries (remember that MMA was straight-up illegal in France until 2020, despite the wealth of talent and a clear interest from audiences in the country).
It surveyed USA, Brazil, Russia, and Japan and found them all in deep decline. I think you'd see growth in European MMA over the same period.
Where is your data on amateur bouts?
Note that MMA matches in the US peaked in 2009. That was before the UFC flooded the zone with weekly events and drowned all the regional promoters. It also correlates to the period of MMA's highest broadcast TV numbers -- 2007 to 2011.
Nate, do you earnestly, legitimately believe that the 2.4 million PPV buys done by UFC 229 only translated to 2.4 million viewers in the US? Or that Joshua Van vs Rei Tsuruya was actually the most watched UFC fight of last year? What is even your source?
There's no way to estimate total viewers of a PPV that I know of. I had different sources for almost every fight, and like I said in the post, I'm not interested in debating the specific details. The point is the general trend. Do you have any reason to believe that the general trend lines are off?
Do you seriously think every single person who bought the PPV watched it on their own? This doesn't even consider people who watched it in bars or other social settings either.
In my area the bars like Hooters, Buffalo Wild Wings haven’t shown PPVs in years. Last one was Izzy vs Kelvin. UFC PPVs in recent years were probably watched solo by people. Those days of groups getting together to watch UFC are long gone. One example are My friends and coworkers stopped watching UFC years ago. So often times it’s me running solo on a PPV.
I'm told by Scott Barrett that he and his friend group still have UFC parties, but that's all the anecdata I've got.
You could do the same multiplication for every one of these TV broadcasts. Between 2006 and 2015 all the major MMA shows on broadcast TV were streamed in packed sports bars. None of that happens anymore for any MMA event.