UFC Vegas 104 picks and predictions

See who we think will win in the APEX this weekend.

Art by Chris Rini.

It was just two weeks ago that I was bemoaning the state of UFC Vegas 103. Well, it looks like UFC Vegas 104 heard that criticism and said “hold my beer.”

At the APEX this weekend we are being “treated” to a truly woeful fight card. And that’s not the fighters’ fault. Many of them might be interesting characters, very good athletes, or both. But that doesn’t hide the fact that this card is filled with individuals who are pretty much unknown to anyone but the most hardcore TKO fanboys.

The main event has name value, with Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze. But their inclusion is spoiled due to this being a rematch that absolutely nobody asked for. The co-main event is Chidi Njokuani vs. Elizeu Zaleski. That’s a fine action fight. But it’s the kind of thing we used to have as a curtain opener for a main card or the crescendo of a prelim card.

There are a couple of more interesting fights on the card, though. There’s Ryan Spann making his heavyweight debut opposite Waldo Cortes-Acosta and there’s the undefeated flyweight Andre Lima taking on Daniel Barez. Stephanie Luciano might also be one to watch for the future.

Unfortunately a lot of those good points are drowned out by bookings like Priscilla Cachoeira vs. Josiane Nunes (neither of whom should be fighting at this level) or the mismatches between young power hitters and older fighters without a chin.

Despite how bad this card is, we’ve done our best to tell you like it is and break down the action. Scroll down for our picks on who is going to win these fights (as well as our over/under picks on the main card).

We did great last week, with three of us (including me) going 12-3 and no one doing worse than 10-5. Most of us are picking at a .650+ success rate so far this year.

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Marvin Vettori (-155) vs. Roman Dolidze (+130)

Miguel Class: What are we doing here? Who was clamoring to see these two rematch? There’s no reason to expect something different than what we saw two years ago with the exception of two more rounds for Dolidze to look gassed. While media scorecards were all over the place for their first match, all three judges gave Vettori the last two rounds and I’m pretty sure that was just because of volume and optics…