UFC Vegas 106: Burns vs. Morales picks and predictions

See who we think will win this Saturday in the APEX.

By Chris Rini.

After a relatively long time away the UFC heads back to its APEX facility this weekend with a card very befitting of its surroundings. The main event is decent enough, with undefeated welterweight Michael Morales getting a stiff test in the shape of Gilbert Burns. The rest of the card is rather dire, though.

Our co-main is Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig. That’s a big yikes. Bellato is coming off a draw (after almost being finished in the first round) with Jim Crute. And Craig is coming off an all-time stinker opposite Bo Nickal.

Deeper down the card there are some slightly more interesting match-ups. The lanky Nursulton Ruziboev might be someone to watch at middleweight and Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa is a very fun scrap on paper.

We’ve looked over these fights and made picks for them all, as we are want to do.

You can have those picks if you’re a paid subscriber. Our picks are pretty good, y’know. Collectively, we went 70-22 at UFC 315. Also at UFC 315, fighters who received the most picks in this post were 9-1 (the 1 was Jose Aldo).

Overall we have a 64% success rate on our picks. We also have a 74% success rate on our lock picks, those are the picks we feel especially strong about. We mark them with an asterisk.

Check out all this stuff below. Oh, and if you’re using the info for betting, please bet responsibly.

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Gilbert Burns (+500) vs. Michael Morales (-850)

Blaine Henry: This fight is curious to me. Michael Morales is very good but has some fundamental flaws in his approach. He gets put in bad spots and finds a way out. That won’t fly at the top of this very talented welterweight division. Ian Machado Garry, Joaquin Buckley, and Jack Della Maddalena will feast in these situations.