We’re still in the APEX! And this card is a lot better than last week’s. We’ve got a fun headliner here with submission monster Anthony Hernandez taking on striking madman Michel Pereira. The co-main has top 15 bantamweights colliding with Rob Font vs. Kyle Phillips and below that there’s some pretty recognizeable names. We’ve got a UFC on Fuel TV era match-up with Darren Elkins vs. Daniel Pineda and we’ve got recent headliner Matheus Nicolau taking on Asu Almabayev. We’ve also got two time TUF winner Brad Katona (he fights Jean Matsumoto) and former title challenger Jessica Penne (she fights Elise Reed).
As always, we’ve looked over the contests and decided who we definitely think are going to win all these fights. You can see all that information below. And if you’re using said information for wagering purposes, we hope you win! However, always make sure you bet responsibily.
Michel Pereira (+115) vs. Anthony Hernandez (-135)
Miguel: Despite being in the UFC for five years now, Michel Pereira has still only had to defend less than 15 takedowns against opponents not named Diego Sanchez. His recent streak of three first round finishes means that he hasn’t been forced to defend a takedown in his recent run at middleweight.
That makes it really hard to predict how this matchup will go. Generally, Pereira doesn’t look like he’ll have some sort of Aldo-esque takedown defense. He uses a lot of empty lateral movement while still getting backed up to the fence somewhat easily and he tends to lunge in with strikes. Those habits should make him vulnerable to getting taken down either when he’s moving backward or when he’s darting into range.
But as always with an athletic, hard-hitting finisher like Pereira, there’s a chance he just bonks Hernandez early. That’s what he did to Petroski, who otherwise would’ve given us an idea about how the Brazilian’s takedown defense looks against a competent offensive wrestler. Kevin Holland, of all people, was the last person to defeat Hernandez and he did it within the first minute of the fight.
While no one would be surprised to see Pereira find a dynamic moment of offense at some point in the five rounds, you have to pick the guy with the more consistent and proven process. While neither fighter has seen a 4th or 5th round in the UFC, you have to imagine that Hernandez is going to hold up better if the fight gets there. Pereira’s style is not very energy-efficient (to put it lightly), so we’ve seen him get tired in third rounds without even having to defend relentless takedowns.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to The MMA Draw Newsletter to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.