Amazon Exiting ONE FC Deal?

A Strategic Shift in Combat Sports Streaming

This guest post is by Blake Avignon.

“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated.”

- Chuck Prince, former CEO of Citigroup, 2007

In the high-stakes world of sports streaming, Amazon is not waiting for the music to stop. It is making moves now. Sources confirm Prime Video will not renew its deal with ONE Championship when it expires at the end of its term in 2025. The calculated exit is part of a broader shift, clearing the way for a potential bid on UFC’s pay-per-view rights. The question once asked in Oppenheimer, “Can you hear the music?” hangs over this moment. Jay Marine has heard it and has chosen to move before the silence sets in.

What began as a promising global partnership is ending with little fanfare. ONE failed to deliver scale, star power, or meaningful traction in the U.S. market. For Amazon, the focus now is on reallocating capital toward proven properties rather than experimental ventures.

The Collapse of a Shiny Deal

ONE’s Prime Video deal looked good in theory. Live events with cinematic production. A diverse slate of disciplines from Muay Thai to submission grappling. Asian market penetration. But none of it translated to consistent returns in the U.S. & Amazon, now prioritizing scale and sustainability, is moving on.

Since its 2022 launch on Prime, ONE has struggled to deliver on every key front: scale, star power, and bottom-line impact. Amazon’s exit doesn’t just bruise ONE’s U.S. ambitions. It shuts the door on them.

The losses are mounting. Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson retired. Eddie Alvarez joined BKFC. Mikey Musumeci jumped ship to the UFC. Miesha Tate left her VP post and returned to the UFC. Bibiano Fernandes and Reinier de Ridder exited with direct warnings to other fighters about the internal organizational chaos, with de Ridder signing with the UFC.

ONE’s U.S. event strategy crumbled after Denver’s August 1 card was canceled. Meanwhile, allegations of preferential treatment behind the scenes, financial red flags, and a Cayman Islands re-domiciling have only deepened investor and media distrust. Despite the promotional shine and a Prime Video spotlight, the brand never broke through. In North America, ONE fizzled out before it ever heated up.

Amazon’s Refocus on Legacy Leagues

Amazon’s broader sports play is surging. A $1 billion-per-year investment in Thursday Night Football runs through 2033. Its new media rights deal with the NBA and WNBA kicks in next season, part of a sweeping 11-year, $76 billion deal alongside Disney and NBC. Regional simulcasts with the Yankees continue, and conversations are underway about joining Olympic coverage ahead of Los Angeles 2028.

Amazon’s current combat sports slate no longer fits the new direction. Premier Boxing Champions is on its way out once its deal wraps. The focus now is on properties with scale, global pull, and advertiser confidence.

That is why UFC is the real prize. According to recent reports, backed by my sources, Amazon is freeing up capital to make a run at UFC’s pay-per-view rights as part of TKO’s upcoming media package. Everything else, including the boxing play, is window dressing.

TKO is trying to bring its new boxing product into the conversation, shopping the September 13 Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford fight as a streaming tentpole. Mark Shapiro is pushing to trigger a bidding war between Amazon and Netflix.

But Turki Alalshikh and Riyadh Season locked in the fight under the Sela banner after a reported meeting between Netflix, TKO Boxing, and Saudi officials went south. TKO was left on the outside. Dana White has since rejoined the promotional effort, trying to keep some presence in the room, but the control isn’t theirs.

In reality, Riyadh Season and TKO Boxing are tagging along. UFC is the asset that moves markets. That is what Amazon wants. That is what everyone wants. Everything else is along for the ride.

What Happens to ONE Now?

Without Amazon, ONE Championship faces a daunting challenge in securing a new U.S. distribution partner. The major players in sports streaming are currently focused on properties with established global appeal and proven revenue streams.

The UFC stands as the premier asset in combat sports, commanding significant attention in the media rights market. With its current deal with ESPN set to expire at the end of 2025, the UFC is reportedly seeking a new agreement valued at over $1 billion annually. Potential new suitors include Amazon, Netflix, and Warner Bros. Discovery, all vying for a piece of the UFC’s extensive portfolio of events and content.

Meanwhile, the Professional Fighters League (PFL), bolstered by its acquisition of Bellator, is attempting to position itself as a formidable competitor. However, questions remain about its financial stability and ability to deliver consistent, high-quality events that can attract and retain a substantial audience.

DAZN, once considered a potential home for various combat sports, is currently reevaluating its strategy. The platform has been trimming its fight catalog and focusing on specific markets, indicating a shift away from broad-based combat sports coverage.

In this competitive landscape, ONE Championship’s lack of marquee talent and limited U.S. market penetration make it a less attractive option for major streaming platforms. Without a significant shift in strategy or a breakthrough in audience engagement, ONE’s current prospects in the U.S. market remain dangerously slim and uncertain.

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For further insights into the shifting landscape of sports streaming and media rights negotiations, stay tuned to The MMA Draw.

Blake Avignon is a pseudonym for a media and brand strategist working across sports, advertising, and entertainment with clients in the UFC, NBA, NFL, and F1.