If you can’t beat them, join ‘em.
That’s the working theory of the case from our special MMA Draw podcast guest this week, Scott Barrett.
Last week, Scott published his TKO Long Bull Thesis article detailing why he thinks the current price of TKO stock — around $215 — is cheap.
The same stock that was around $80 before the first proposed UFC antitrust settlement was negotiated is now $215… and still cheap? How?
The $TKO Long Bull Thesis
This is a guest post from Scott Barrett, a leading fantasy football expert and NFL analyst (115K+ followers on X at @ScottBarrettDFB), who is now expanding his analytical coverage into the UFC. You can also follow his UFC-focused account on X at @ScottBarrettUFC
This week’s edition of The MMA Draw podcast — free for everyone to listen to — is a sales pitch as to why Big Money has gone all-in on TKO.
The current market cap for TKO is $42 billion.
Scott Barrett joined MMA Draw Editor-in-Chief Nate Wilcox to talk about why he thinks TKO (WWE, UFC, and Zuffa Boxing) is positioned as a cheap growth stock that is in the early, not late stages of monopolization.
One of the key debates about assessing TKO’s long-term future is its legal and political risk exposure.
(This podcast was recorded before the big breaking news that US Federal Judge Richard Boulware is ordering Dana White to testify in his courtroom regarding potential evidence spoliation allegations.)
Scott believes that TKO falls into the classic category of other major American monopolies that end up paying a small percentage of revenue out in fines or settlements in order to generate tens of billions of dollars.
What we see as customers getting screwed over is what excites Big Money so much about the job that Mark Shapiro and Nick Khan are doing with TKO. So far, the numbers for advanced ticket sales look good for UFC 324 with Paddy Pimblett as the headliner. Plus, tens of thousands of tickets have already been reportedly sold for Wrestlemania 42 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
In an era that Politico describes as Trump’s ‘Golden Age’ has arrived for the top 10 percent, it’s hard to argue with Mark Shapiro’s value extraction if people are unquestionably buying into their “experience economy.” Especially if YouTube influencers are supposedly paying $15,000 for OnLocation VIP packages.
TKO is banking on a pay-at-all-costs customer psychology — and so far, it’s working.
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Nate Wilcox is Editor-in-Chief of The MMA Draw. He founded BloodyElbow.com in 2007 and sold it in 2024.
Scott Barrett is a leading fantasy football expert and NFL analyst (115K+ followers on X at @ScottBarrettDFB), who is now expanding his analytical coverage into the UFC.
