UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Chris Gutierrez staff picks and predictions

Here's who we're picking to win in the UFC APEX Octagon this weekend.

Dec 08, 2023

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Song Yadong can throw down! Art by Chris Rini.

The UFC hops back to the APEX facility this weekend with a card that boasts a couple of good bangers (on paper). The main event is Song Yadong vs. Chris Gutierrez, which should deliver some action and technical skill.

The co-main is Khalil Rountree Jr. vs. Anthony Smith. Surely that one finishes within the distance (probably quite brutally). We’ve also got Sumudaerji vs. Tim Elliott, which should be a lot of fun on the ground.

As always, we’ve gone over these match-ups with a fine-tooth comb and figured out who will definitely win each and every fight. Well, maybe not, but we’ve certainly given it a go.

As you can see we are all in on Song Yadong to thump his way past Chris Gutierrez and continue his campaign as a title threat in the deep bantamweight division. We’re near unanimous on the co-main, too, thinking Khalil Rountree Jr. will end Anthony Smith’s night horribly on Saturday.

Keep scrolling to see who we are picking in the rest of the night’s fights! Oh, and tell us your picks in the comments please.

Song Yadong vs. Chris Gutierrez

Anton Tabuena: It sucks that this fight isn’t in Shanghai anymore, but my pick didn’t change. Yadong is the better athlete and more potent finisher, and he will probably find a way to land big at some point. Song Yadong by TKO.

Eddie: Gutierrez is super-tech, and he should find a lot of success with his leg kicks here. However, I see Song and his punching power having the bigger ‘wow’ moments that simply count for more. Song Yadong by Decision

Tim: I think the strength and striking advantages will be with Song Yadong here. I have a lot of respect for Chris Gutierrez’s game, and enjoy watching him fight, but I don’t see him having anything that could put Song in danger early. Nor do I think he’s careless enough to get caught early by Song. So I think we’re in for a war of attrition here and I think the longer the fight goes the more Song’s athleticism will be of advantage and he should be able to power his way to a decision. Song Yadong by decision.

Dayne: I haven’t been able to see the same thing others have been able to see in Gutierrez. Not that he’s a bad fighter or anything, but I’m not sure he’s deserving of his ranking. There is something to be said about his undefeated streak as it only takes a single misstep in MMA for a loss to be hung on your record. But he was also fighting opposition he was supposed to beat before he was fortunate enough to get the final shell of Frankie Edgar. He ended up losing a one-sided decision to Pedro Munhoz when he faced a legit ranked opponent, the lone victory for Munhoz in his last five fights.

On the flip side, Song can’t be denied as a potential challenger. He’s tapped into his power over the last few years and has proven he can go a solid five rounds. Plus, he’s durable as hell and isn’t afraid to eat a few shots in order to dish out his brand of punishment. Generally, that’s a bad idea, but I think it can be a style that is effective against Gutierrez. After all, pressure will minimise the effectiveness of Gutierrez’s leg kicks and Gutierrez’s punching power isn’t something Song hasn’t dealt with before. The native of China makes a statement. Song Yadong via TKO of RD4

Chris: I love watching Song fight, he seems to be the perfect evolution of a Team Alpha Male fighter. I’m glad the coin chose him because he should use this win to call out Chito Vera, should the Ecuadorian topple Sean O’Malley because their first scrap was a total banger.

Zane: Gutierrez has a lot of the tools to trouble Song, but it’s hard to get that fight with Munoz out of my head, where Gutierrez was really quickly backed up and dropped and spent the rest of the fight playing catchup to a faster, more dangerous opponent... That feels a hell of a lot like something Song Yadong can repeat, especially given that he’s more insistent on pressuring than Munoz these days, and stays dangerous late into fights. Song Yadong via TKO, round 3.

Staff picking Song: Eddie, Stephie, Dayne, Chris, Kristen, Zane, Victor, Jack, Tim, Anton
Staff picking Gutierrez:

Anthony Smith vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.

Anton: I don’t have much faith on either of these guys, but I do think father time is more predictable. Khalil Rountree Jr. by TKO.

Eddie: I’ve seen this in a dream. Khalil Rountree by TKO via leg kicks

Dayne: Smith is tricky to figure out. He looked like he was on the decline several years ago, only to storm back with a three-fight win streak that saw him finish all his opponents in the first round. He has started looking old again, barely squeezing by Ryan Spann because, well, he’s Ryan Spann. Has all the miles finally caught up to Smith or does he have a final run left in him?

Smith’s last win streak came via a combination of luck and favorable matchups. In fact, Spann was one of those victims and he looked MUCH better the second time around. Throw in that I think Eddie is onto something – Smith is prone to leg kicks – and Rountree’s brutal striking power should be enough to demolish the eroding durability of Smith. Besides, Smith has an analyst job he can fall back on. I don’t see his hunger being as great as Rountree’s. Khalil Rountree via TKO, round 3.

Chris: Anthony Smith’s body is failing him. Khali Rountree does not outpoint people, he crushes their bodies. This is going to be ugly for Smith’s legs.

Zane: If Khalil Rountree doesn’t get Smith out of there early, then the chances he loses are very high. Smith has a nasty habit of bouncing back from a major beating to take over a fight and Rountree has had a nasty habit of self detonating when the going gets rough, especially when the bout hits the mat. That said, the way Rountree is fighting lately, and the way he’s targeting the legs, I don’t trust that Smith will get that chance to bounce back. It was notable how anaemic he looked in that Johnny Walker fight, almost entirely due to low kicks and the threat of the counter. Rountree can offer that, and a lot more confident violence at the moment. Khalil Rountree via TKO, round 1.

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Tim: I keep feeling like we are watching Smith fighting for the last time and I just hope that’s finally going to be the case here. Khalil Rountree is a classic ‘guy I can’t trust’ to get a win, but against Smith I think his speed and killer instinct will spell trouble (in the form of a jumping knee). Khalil Rountree via TKO, round 1.

Staff picking Smith: Jack
Staff picking Rountree Jr.: Eddie, Stephie, Chris, Kristen, Zane, Victor, Tim, Anton

Sumudaerji vs. Tim Elliott

Dayne: Elliott is taking a huge risk by taking this fight on short notice. That said, he’s a stylistic nightmare for Sumudaerji. There’s no doubt Sumudaerji is the superior striker, but Elliott is exceptionally difficult to put away via strikes and Sumudaerji is prone to being subbed. Elliott has matured over the last few years, so I think he has calculated the risk of taking this on short notice and he’s going to get himself back on track. Tim Elliott via submission of RD1

Chris: Sumudaerji comes back from the depths of hell (the Matt Schnell fight) to face one of the weirdest and durable fighters on the roster. I’d love for Smudaerji to have capitalized on the goodwill earned in his previous bloodfest, but the memories of MMA fans and gods are short. Look for an Elliott submission late in the game.

Zane: If this fight weren’t on short notice, I’d be taking Elliott no questions asked. Since it is on short notice, I’m still taking Elliott, but I’m feeling awfully chancy about it. He actually very rarely submits anyone, and in the past he was known for gassing badly as fights went on. That latter problem he seems to have solved, but will the lack of camp make it resurface? Sumudaerji loses by sub pretty regularly, but it’s usually a struggle and often a result of his own insistence on staying aggressive. If Elliott can’t tap him out and starts to fade, this could turn into a beating. Still, Elliott’s wrestling and durability and grappling are just too big of marks in his favor. Tim Elliott by submission.

Tim: We’ve seen Sumudaerji can fade when fights get long. But it’s been striking damage that’s gotten him there. I don’t think Tim Elliott has the firepower to get Sumudaerji to slow down. I actually think Sumudaerji’s hands are what’s going to slow Elliott down and force him into a very defensive grappling game. I think Sumudaerji can seize on that situation and pound his way to a submission victory. Sumudaerji via submission, round 3.

Staff picking Sumudaerji: Stephie, Eddie, Victor, Jack, Tim
Staff picking Elliott: Dayne, Chris, Kristen, Zane, Anton

Nasrat Haqparast vs. Jamie Mullarkey

Dayne: In a sense, I’ve given up on both these men, but in different ways. I’ve given up on Haqparast being a future contender. He lacks killer instinct, which makes me think Mullarkey has what it takes to pull off the upset. After all, Mullarkey is poor man’s Darren Elkins, willing to eat more than his share of punches in his effort to stay in his opponent’s face. However, the reason I’ve given up on Mullarkey is the disappearance of his chin. He’s been finished several times and hurt in just about every other fight.

Haqparast’s lack of killer instinct has resulted in almost every one of his UFC victories coming via decision. However, he managed to drop John Makdessi, indicating there’s power in there. Even of more importance, Makdessi, largely a point fighter of a similar nature to Haqparast, managed to drop Mullarkey. That’s reason enough for me to believe Haqparast might even be able to get the finish. Nasrat Haqparast via TKO of RD2

Zane: Feels awfully unfair to Mullarkey who has shown a willingness to go anywhere and do anything to win, to have to go up against Nasrat Haqparast, who tends to lean on the same 2 or 3 tools in every fight come whatever may, and who is also very likely to melt Mullarkey at some point just for being much faster and more durable. Nasrat Haqparast via TKO, round 2.

Andre Muniz vs. Park Jun Yong

Dayne: Muniz received several favorable matchups upon making it to the UFC, allowing him to shoot up into the official rankings before suffering his first loss. Park isn’t a favorable matchup, but I don’t know if his talent level is enough to overcome Muniz. Park’s style is to pressure and wear down his opponents and Muniz’s last two showings indicate he’s capable of being cracked.

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